Thai govt pays €38m to Walter Bau, gets royal plane back

Originally published at Siam Voices on August 10, 2011 Bangkok Post reported on Tuesday night:

A court in Germany has released the Boeing 737 seized from HRH Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn, former prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said on Tuesday.

Mr Abhisit told reporters the government has posted the full 38 million euros demanded by Walter Bau company in an account to be controlled by the German court.

As a result, the court released the jet. Terms of the agreement were unclear, as was the role of Mr Abhisit.

The government used public money for the deal. (...)

"Germany 'releases royal jet'", Bangkok Post, August 9, 2011

AP's take:

A Munich airport official confirmed that German authorities on Tuesday had released the plane used by the Thai crown prince. "It has been released, he just has to tell the airport when he would like to fly," Edgar Engert, a spokesman for the airport, told The Associated Press.

"Thailand post German bond to free prince's plane", Associated Press, August 10, 2011

This is quite yet another intriguing turn of events, which probably ends an awkward spat between Thailand and Germany, that started almost a month ago over an issue that dates back even further, when a German construction firm built a tollway to Bangkok's old international airport in Don Muang in a jointventure with the Thai government. The Thai government has broken several contractual obligations, including toll hikes and not building other roads that would compete with the tollway.

This German construction firm later merged with Walter Bau AG, another German construction firm that went bankrupt in 2005 - it was then when liquidator Werner Schneider found the old contract and demanded compensation from the Thai government. An international arbitration court ruled against Thailand in 2009 and ordered them to pay €30m ($42m or THB 1,2bn) - which has grown to almost €38m thanks to interests and the Thai government simply ignoring the order for years.

That's when Werner Schneider had enough, decided to up the ante against the Thai government and seeked to impound the Boeing 737 of Thai Crown HRH Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn. That set off a bilateral spat in which Thailand, partly thanks to the confusing domestic media coverage, but also active disinformation and an apparent failure to distinguish a German court from the German government, had a weak case on their hands in not only trying to release the plane, but also fight against the order to pay the hefty sum to WalterBau AG.

The main legal battle focussed on whether or not the royal 737 plane is owned by the Thai government or is personal property of the Crown Prince. A German court has then decided to release the plane only for a €20m ($28.4 or THB 851m) deposit, which still kinda led some Thai news outlets to believe that the plane is actually freed, since there has been no verdict on the ownership status, which was supposed to take place later this August at a German court.

The lastest developments (which were also the last acts of the now former Thai government of Abhisit Vejjajiva and then-foreign minister Kasit Piromya) consisted of who was going to pay. Of course, it started off with Kasit refusing to pay the deposit, the Crown Prince then announced to pay from his own fund, to which Kasit was suddenly ready to flip the bill so the Crown Prince doesn't have to until Abhisit overruled him and said no - as summarized here by Bangkok Pundit.

Now apparently the Thai government is actually paying the whole bill to Walter Bau after all. But why so suddenly? Was it an attempt to score one last 'victory' by the outgoing government by not only getting the royal plane back? Was the realization that the 'new information' presented to the German courts was neither new nor informative enough to be in favor of the Thai government? Apparently the Thai side ran out of arguments:

DLA Piper, the law firm representing Thailand in the case, said the country is committed to honoring its obligations and wants to rule out premature actions against assets of it or others.

"Thailand has strong grounds for challenging the confirmation of the award," a DLA Piper lawyer, Frank Roth, said in the firm's statement. "However, if the Berlin court finally concludes that the award against the Kingdom of Thailand is enforceable, the Kingdom of Thailand has made the funds available."

"Thailand post German bond to free prince's plane", Associated Press, August 10, 2011

This statement by this law firm is particularly interesting, since just a week ago they have released a press release sounding very confident and trying to convince that the €20m deposit to be a 'victory'. But according to one Thai official, this whole thing is not done yet:

Thai Foreign Ministry official Chavanond Intarakomalyasut said a German court ordered the release of the aircraft Tuesday after the Thai government posted a 38 million euro ($54 million) bond, equal to the Walter Bau claim.

He said Thailand would continue to contest the claim on the tollway dispute until a definitive court ruling. Abhisit stepped down from the prime minister's post last week after his Democrat Party lost a July general election.

"Thailand post German bond to free prince's plane", Associated Press, August 10, 2011

Chavanond probably refers to an ongoing appeal at a New York court, even though the award itself is already final, unappealable and enforceable worldwide - the chances are reportedly 'very slim' (source) though that the Thai government would actually get anything from this procedure.

There's of course at least one Thai news outlet that gets it wrong - you can all probably guess which one it is...

German authorities have agreed to withdraw impoundment of two 737 Boeing jets belonging to His Royal Highness Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn parked at the Munich airport, after Thai government placed 38 million euros as guarantee, former prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said yesterday.

The Thai embassy in Germany is working further on the issue to retrieve the two aircraft [sic!], and a lawsuit will be soon lodged with German court, said Chawanong Intharakomalsut, secretary to former foreign minister Kasit Piromya. He did not give details over which grounds over the issue the lawsuit would appeal against.

"Germans to free jet as govt pays Bt1.6-bn surety", The Nation, August 10, 2011

Wait, wait - TWO impounded planes?! Who said that TWO planes have been impounded?! Yes, there was a second Thai royal plane landing on the runway in Munich, but the German liquidator was only considering to impound the second plane - if that would have happened, we would have already known about this, if not from the Thai press, then at least the German press! Even the Thai Embassy in Berlin has said nowhere about a second plane!

This leaves now the question with what they actually mean when they said that 'public money' has been used...?

Saksith Saiyasombut is a Thai blogger and journalist currently based in Bangkok, Thailand. He can be followed on Twitter @Saksith and now also on his public Facebook page here.

Exclusive: ‘This is not the last straw for Thai democracy’ – Suranand Vejjajiva

Originally published at Siam Voices on July 15, 2011 This is part two of Siam Voices' exclusive interview with Suranand Vejjajiva, former Cabinet Minister under Thaksin Shinawatra, now a politicial columnist for the Bangkok Post and host of "The Commentator" on VoiceTV.

In this second installment, Suranand talks to Saksith Saiyasombut about a wide range of topics, including the fate of the red shirts, the future of the Democrat Party, our education crisis, the state of the media and Thaksin. For part one, click here.

Saksith Saiyasombut: Article 112 of the Criminal Code, the lèse majesté law, has been blamed to be partly responsible that Thailand has been downgraded by several media freedom watchdogs as for it‘s decreasing freedom of speech. Do you think a Pheu Thai government is capable to improve on this?

Suranand Vejjajiva: Oh yes, if they‘re willing to. The Democrat Party could have done it, too. The enforcement of that law, that it leaves to individual judgement, is problematic. A policeman can interpret the law differently. What the outgoing government has done is to string this law together with the Computer Crimes Act (CCA), all for political purposes. I don‘t agree with this development at all - let everyone speak their mind! To answer your question: Pheu Thai would definitely get into trouble, there‘ll be people attacking them...

...if they would tweak Article 122 or its application. But there are also other aspects they could improve on...

...they could improve the Computer Crimes Act. A lot of groups have been proposing for a change.

Exactly, even though the MICT has proposed a new draft of the CCA, which was even worse - which hasn‘t materialized yet...

...luckily...

Let‘s talk about the red shirt movement, what will happen to them now?

It‘s a good sign that the red shirt leaders are running for office and they should perform their duties as such. But the red shirts as a movement is a political phenomenon that should be studied and they should keep it up, they should improve and reform - make it a mature political movement and they will be an important political force, if they believe in protecting democracy. They have to prove themselves, too. A lot of people are accusing them for being just a vehicle for Thaksin to come back to power. Now, if they prove themselves to be just that and forget the people, then they will suffer. I don‘t wish to see that - the same can be said even for the yellow shirts! If they would have developed into a real political movement - fine!

Is it - for the lack of a better word - 'appropriate' if any of the red leaders-now-elected-MPs would get a cabinet post?

It‘s all political negotiation. For me personally, I don‘t mind because they would have to prove themselves and as long as they do not use their new power to intervene with their own cases, that‘s fine.

What about the new opposition, the Democrat Party...

...the new opposition with the old leaders? (laughs)

Well, will there be the old leaders or will there be new faces taking over, since Abhisit is now a burnt commodity?

It‘s quite a shame, but at the same Abhisit would be a liability to the Democrats for now. He‘s still very young and there‘re still ways to vindicate him - but with the 91 deaths hanging over his government, it‘s going to be hard. It‘s going to be a liability if he is still the opposition leader. The Democrats probably need a new face. But if they can‘t find one - Abhisit is still one of the strongest candidate on this side of the aisle, he has been protecting the conservatives and the establishment.

So if it‘s not going to be Abhisit, he thinks it should be someone from his fraction like (outgoing finance minister) Korn Chatikavanij or (former Bangkok governor) Apirak Kosayodhin - they have to work it out among themselves.

So it would be best to have a fresh new start with new faces?

Looking from Pheu Thai‘s point of view, it would be good if Abhisit stays! (laughs)

Speaking of new faces, how do you explain that Chuwit Kalomvisit‘s Rak Prathet Thai Party could get four seats? Was this a protest movement?

Yes, you have to give him credit. He is very energetic, he could get his message across - even though he looks crazy sometimes. And his message is easy and direct. But at the same time, a lot of people were thinking to „Vote No“, but once the PAD took that position, many people were thinking ,What am I going to do with my protest vote?‘ - they gave it to Chuwit.

Especially a lot of young people...

...especially a lot of young people who are bored of politics! Which happens in a lot of countries!

But at least in other countries there‘s a vocal part of the youth who are standing up against wrongdoings...

...and they are more organized...

...but here in Thailand, they are virtually invisible!

It‘ because of our weak education. The political consciousness and democratic principles need to be taught in school. Thai schools are still very authoritative and not bold enough to open up to let their students talk and speak [their mind]. It‘s not like the Western schools, it‘s a cultural thing that you have to develop. It hurts in a way, it makes the institutions weak, bad politicians can still remain in office - people basically don‘t really care!

Despite the fact the outgoing government has thrown more money at the problem, there are now more and more international reports indicating that the Thai education system is producing not very skilled labors and also in English proficiency we are falling behind. And then comes Pheu Thai and their most memorable education policy is „Free tablet PCs for all“...

In my opinion, giving out free tablet PCs is still better than just giving out free uniforms. Because at least the tablet PC can - if done right - open up access to information for the students, and it would also solve other problems, like printing frauds. But I agree with you, it‘s deeper than that!

It doesn‘t take gadgets to solve this problem, which are more fundamental...

...it‘s the fundamental attitude of the Ministry of Education towards education!

I‘m not very convinced there will be much change by the next government.

No, which will hurt us even more. It‘ll take a decade, it would take two or three generations to change the education system, but you have to begin somewhere. And I agree with you, if they don‘t do it now...

...we will have another lost generation?

Yes.

A weak society needs a strong media to at least uphold the pillars of society, but we don't have that as well.

We don‘t! As seen in many foreign countries, a strong public television system really helps a society to develop - we don‘t have it here. We tried to do it a lot of times, but that was no real public service television.

What I‘m trying to say is, I see a direct correlation between weak education and weak media. So there's less of a sense to challenge, criticize and openly question things that are needed to be addressed.

Well, we were just talking about the campaign. If we were in the United States or Germany, a good 90 per cent of the Thai campaign policies would have been shot down by the press, because they would been well researched with reports, graphics; arguing wether this is feasible - but you don‘t see that in Thai press, they would just ask that academic, then this academic and that‘s it! Just soundbites!

British academic Duncan McCargo wrote a book about the Thai press ("Politics & the Press in Thailand: Media Machinations"), which is 10 years old, his research is 15 years old...

...and it‘s still valid - unfortunately!

He says, among many other things, that the Thai media mostly lacks a „sense of duty to explain the political process“. Can there be change as well, even in these very solid, top-down structures?

I hope so, there are a lot of good publishing houses and newspapers. But you don‘t see any quality papers á la New York Times or you don‘t see an investigative television show. I hope the young generation will be able to use the internet more wisely. But we don‘t have a strong enough education system to create an opportunity for them to question the information they are getting, then they will be fooled like everyone else.

Getting back to politics: will this transition of power be smooth?

For the sake of the country, I‘d like to see that. Whether Pheu Thai is good or bad - give them a chance to run the country, at best for four years. If they have done well, re-elect them; if not, throw them out of the office! That‘s the simple democratic principle.

But to answer your question: I doubt it, there‘ll be a lot of challenges. Now, if the challenges come within the parliamentary system, fine. But if it‘s not, then there will be trouble.

Is this one of the reasons why there‘ll be an intervention from an undemocratic force or is it still too early to say?

It‘s too early to say! The advantage for us right now is, after the recent events in the world, like the Arab Spring, are cautionary tales for people who try to exercise power outside the framework of democracy. But I also think that Pheu Thai‘s action in government will be important: appoint good and capable cabinet ministers, prove themselves that they are fair and transparent, no corruption cases - this would help. But if they come in and do the same thing - what I‘m scared of is that people will lose faith in democracy.

Haven‘t many people already lost their faith in the current democratic system, especially the youth?

Yes, even some of the rural people - there was a whole village that didn‘t come out to vote at all! But at the same time I think it‘s not the last straw! But if the next government does the same mistakes the Democrats did and disappoint the people, then the military would see this as an excuse to say: "Let‘s get in!" But that‘s not the solution!

Of course there‘s a dark, shadowy figure looming around this whole political crisis, it‘s of course Thaksin. Do you think Thaksin should have kept his mouth shut in the last few months?

I don‘t mind. If he feels he‘s been treated unfairly, let him say so. People talk a lot in this country. But whatever he says, he has to live with the consequences, like everyone else.

But nevertheless Yingluck got a big boost, because she‘s Thaksin‘s sister.

Yes! Thaksin is both an asset and a liability. He‘s certainly an asset - his vision, his connections, his networks, his charisma...

...his ego...

...I mean, he has the drive, to put it that way. But on the other hand he is a liability because he has so many political enemies.

The question many are asking is if Yingluck can stand on her own as a PM.

That is going to be important for the country. Yes, she is Thaksin‘s sister, she can‘t deny that. And in reality Thaksin is helping out a lot. But in a short period of time, she has been a successful campaigner. Now she has to prove, in an even shorter period time, that she can run the country. We have to give her that chance.

Will this government, and the red shirt movement as well, be capable and willing to move beyond Thaksin?

This is what they have to sit down and talk about.

Is this country able to?

Oh yes, definitely! There will be a day, where Thaksin is too old and you have to move on.

Will he come back?

I think so. He should come home, but to power? That‘s going to be another problem.

Khun Suranand, thank you very much!

Exclusive: Pheu Thai should talk policies first - Suranand Vejjajiva

In this two-part interview, Saksith Saiyasombut talks to Suranand Vejjajiva, a former Cabinet Minister under the Thaksin Shinawatra administration who served as the Minister of the PM's Office and spokesman of the Thai Rak Thai Party, until the ban of this party and 111 politicians in 2007. The cousin of the now outgoing prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, Suranand is a columnist for the Bangkok Post and host of "The Commentator" on VoiceTV.

In part one we talk about Pheu Thai's election victory and the work ahead of them, including the economy and reconciliation process and where it went wrong for the Democrat Party. In part two, we'll look ahead at the fate of the new government, the red shirts, the Democrat Party and Thaksin Shinawatra and also at the state of education and the media in Thailand.

We had Election Day on Sunday, July 3 - then on Monday, July 4, we already have a coalition or at least an agreement to form a coalition. What this to be expected to happen so quickly?

I‘m not in the inner circle, but what I was thinking is that - since PT has 265 seats - they don‘t have a wide enough margin. They expect that some elected MPs could get disqualified [by the Election Commission], so they have already talked to smaller parties to get the margin up to 299 seats to be safe. (Note: it‘s 300 now, ed.)

Do you think this coalition is stable enough?

In terms of numbers yes, definitely. The coalition partners don‘t have any leverage to change anything much because PT already has enough seats. If PT would have fewer seats, let‘s say 220, and a coalition partner with 20 seats would come in, then they would have more leverage, then the coalition would be unstable. But number-wise, this coalition is stable.

We have now the usual claims on the ministries, but as you just said, the coalition partners don‘t have any leverage - still, I cannot imagine that they want to go out empty handed...

Oh, they will get their ministries! My first observation was along this line, too. But it‘s too early to talk about cabinet positions - the Election Commission has not even certified the MPs yet, there‘s still a lot of time. I think Pheu Thai is being pushed by the media...

...practically hyped up...

...yeah, hyped up - to talk about cabinet positions, because that‘s what the media is interested in. But I don‘t think Pheu Thai should fall for that. For example when I saw in the news today, when Khun Yingluck came out and talked about policies - that‘s what parties should talk about right now.

So what are the policies they should look at first?

It will be two-prong. The first one is reconciliation, it‘s a policy-cum-mechanism that they have to implement. They cannot say by themselves that they will do this and that, since they are a part of the conflict as well. So what Khun Yingluck is trying to propose, a neutral committee while keeping the Truth and Reconciliation Committee of Dr. Kanit, is good in a way...

Even though Dr. Kanit's panel has hardly found anything...

It‘s because the now-outgoing administration didn‘t give them anything. It‘s a paper tiger, they don‘t even get the budget they needed - let alone access to all the evidence. So if Yingluck comes in as the prime minister and opens up everything to Kanit‘s committee - that‘s one thing she has to make sure that happens.

The other thing of course is the economic situation. Not all people care for reconciliation, but a lot of them care what is going to be in their wallets and in their stomachs.

And are Pheu Thai‘s policies a real way out? For example, one of the first things they have planned is to raise the minimum wage to 300 Baht...

It's hard to say. I have criticized nearly every party's policies, I don‘t believe in these so-called 'populist platforms'. Yes, Thailand still has gaps and loopholes concerning wages or the welfare system. But to give handouts from the first day will be a strain on the fiscal discipline for the government. What they should have done though, while I agree with the wage raise, is to explain what kind of structural adjustments they would do for the economy. When investors and business people see that for example the minimum wage increase is part of a larger restructuring, they might be more confident over the economy.

Let‘s take a look back for a moment. You said that you have criticized almost every party‘s policies - what made Pheu Thai stand out from anybody else?

Pheu Thai and its previous incarnations (People‘s Power Party and Thai Rak Thai) have a track record - if you look at their economic team, all former cabinet ministers - that is for me and probably for many people enough for us now to have confidence in them.

Where did it go wrong for the Democrat Party then?

On reconciliation - they were not sincere enough about it, they haven‘t provided an official explanation on what happened last year yet, we only got political rhetoric so far. And no cases have gone into the judicial process yet.

What about the economic side?

They have not been able to deal with the rising cost of living. Of course, they would say the export figures are excellent, but they are excellent because we are a food producing country. But the prices on (palm) oil, nearly all prices went up. They haven‘t been able to manage the domestic side, not even the 'trickling down' of these benefits towards the urban population but also to the farmers. I think that‘s why they lost the vote.

Then there was the last-ditch attempt to hold a rally at Rajaprasong, which didn‘t really help them in the end...

Well, I‘m trying to figure out the Bangkok vote, which consists of two factors: first, the Democrats control the election mechanics in Bangkok for a very long time, so they‘re better organized than Pheu Thai in Bangkok. Secondly, Abhisit was continuing to bet on the politics of fear - the fear of Thaksin, the fear of the red shirts. Abhisit was targeting the Bangkok electorate, especially the middle-class.

We have now talked about the reconciliation and economic policies of the Pheu Thai Party. What else should be on top of their list?

Foreign policy. Especially with the neighboring countries, because I think we cannot live among ourselves. The outgoing government has created very bad relations with our neighbors and that doesn‘t help because ASEAN 2015 (the planned establishment of the ASEAN Economic Community, ed.) is coming very soon. If you really want to be a real borderless ASEAN, it has to be proven on the mainland and if Thailand doesn‘t have good relations with its neighbors, it will be problematic. The border situation with Cambodia was mishandled very badly from a diplomatic standpoint - it could have resolved bi-laterally long time ago. If there were good relations, we wouldn‘t have any incidents, not even at the UN Security Council or to the International Court of Justice or the World Heritage Committee. That is embarrassing.

Part of the much-discussed reconciliation policy of Pheu Thai has been a potential amnesty plan - if there has been ever one. Is it a smart move to give everybody, convicted of political wrongdoings, amnesty? Is this how a proper reconciliation looks like?

I don‘t agree at all with that. I don‘t see that an amnesty will help anyone. You can forgive, but only after a certain process. I‘m a banned politician for only eight more months and I have never called for an amnesty. But if you absolve all these cases, including Thaksin, the terrorist accusations against red and yellow shirts, the military coup, the defamation cases - you cannot give an amnesty that way, because there are a lot of other people in jail who will call for their own amnesty as well! The best way for reconciliation is not an amnesty, but to make sure that the judicial process is fair and transparent in order to provide real justice.

But does it like it at the moment or does the judicial system need changes?

Once you say you have to reform the whole judicial process, then that‘s a big problem. For example, the government has to find a credible and socially accepted Minister of Justice first...

Now who would that be?

I don‘t know! But it‘s important this person is independent. This government has to set an example, especially for the cases that involve the red shirts and Thaksin. I don‘t think Thaksin wants an amnesty, since he himself said he didn‘t do anything wrong. But if he‘s sure that the judicial process is fair and transparent, he might be able to come back and fight his case.

What I've been up to lately... (aka Shameless Self-Plugging)

Phew, what a week that was! As regular readers of my blog know, I do not write too many exclusive posts for my personal blog here. Most of the time, all the posts I write for Siam Voices are being republished here and form time to time I post a personal column almost every sixth month - so since my last one was a recap of 2010, a new one is overdue. And you came around at the right time, because there's a lot to tell you about the last few days and weeks...

So, even the last person must have recognized that I'm in Bangkok right now, where I'll spent nearly all of this summer working (as a journalist), researching (for my final thesis) and if there's still time for some little fun (for my own sanity). The first two weeks of my stay so far has been almost entirely work-centric - there was an election nonetheless!

So here's a list of posts I've written or other things I've been involved in (Note: This post, among other articles, should have gone up long, long time ago. Apologies!):

Siam Voices/Asian Correspondent - June 24, 2011 "Thailand’s Democrat Party rally: Reclaiming (the truth about) Rajaprasong" A field report from the Democrat's rally at Rajaprasong, the same place where over a year ago the red shirts seized. Deputy prime minister Suthep Tuangsaban wanted to show 'the truth' about what happened during the violent clashes a year ago, while prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva warns people that a vote for the opposition Pheu Thai Party is a vote for Thaksin.

Siam Voices/Asian Correspondent - June 27, 2011 "‘Justice Delayed, Justice Denied’ – A public seminar on last year’s violence and what has (not) happened since" As an interesting contrast to the Rajaprasong rally by the Democrat Party, this public forum at Thammasat University has several speeches on what has (not) happened ever since the violent crackdown on the protests. Spoiler: Not much...

Thaizeit.de - June 29, 2011 "Wir sind ein gespaltenes Land" ("We are a devided country") A Thailand-based, German language website conducted an interview with me about the current political situation. I particularly like the description "Thai-hanseatic" and my answer to the last question (if necessary, put through a translator).

Siam Voices/Asian Correspondent - July 1, 2011 "Pheu Thai Party rallies in Nakhon Ratchasima – a photo essay" Another day on the campaign trail, we followed Yingluck Shinawatra to a Pheu Thai Party rally in Nakhon Ratchasima (also known as Korat). I'm surprised that me and my cameraman (I'm on double duty for IHLAS News Agency) were let onto the stage that easily and at the time Yingluck came, there was absolute pandaemonium! After that we were racing to back to Bangkok to be just in time for...

Al Jazeera "The Stream" - June 29, 2011 "Thai Elections: Lions, Tigers, and Bears? Vote 'No'! - Saksith Saiyasombut" Al Jazeera's new social media-centric show "The Stream" has done an Skype interview with me - at 2.30am (since they're based in Washington DC!). I'm kind of surprised that they went with the "Vote No" and the animal posters as the lead and my answers concerning social media and Thai politics probably wasn't what they wanted to hear. This is my third time that I appeared on Al Jazeera program (after appearing on The Listening Post, twice) - can I now be called a 'regular contributor'...?

CNNgo - June 30, 2011 "Saksith Saiyasombut: Get out from under your coconut shell and vote" My first contribution for CNNgo, a lifestyle and travel website, but also always with an eye on the more serious sides of life, including social issues and politics. This column doesn't go into the details of the political mechanisms, but more my feelings about this country and where it is heading to, when we're not careful enough. This piece was done in the same night as the Al Jazeera interview and so was the next piece...

CNNgo - July 3, 2011 "Top 10 strange moments of Thailand's 2011 general election" Top 10-lists always go well as an online article format so I did my very own top 10 of election campaign oddities, and there were many of them this year.

Siam Voices/Asian Correspondent- July 3, 2011 "Live-Blog: Thailand Elections 2011" Throughout the whole election day I live-blogged, partly from my mobile phone on a back of a motorcycle, about nearly all aspects of that day.

Round-up of day one after Thailand's elections

Originally published at Siam Voices on July 4, 2011 Just in case you haven't been following our live-blog yesterday, the opposition Pheu Thai Party (PT) have won the majority of the votes paving the way for Yingluck Shinawatra to become Thailand's first female prime minister. Bangkok Pundit has his take about the morning after, which I initially wanted to write about as well. But over the course of Monday after elections, things moved very quickly:

First off, outgoing prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has resigned from his position as leader of the Democrat Party and seeks no re-election even if the party members want him to. He's taking responsibility from the big election defeat and makes room for a new party leader, that could be either outgoing finance minister Korn Chatikavanij or former Bangkok governor Apirak Kosayodhin.

Then over noon, Yingluck has met with several representatives of other parties over lunch for coalition talks, just already to announce a five-party governing coalition after it, with Chat Thai Pattana (as of now, unofficially 19 seats), Chat Pattana Phua Pandin (7), Palang Chon (7) and Mahachon (1), together with Pheu Thai's 265 forming a comfortable majority of 299 seats of the total 500 in the parliament. Why 299 you might ask? "299 is a beautiful number," is what Yingluck said...

Of course, all eyes are also looking at the military whether they will accept the outcome of the elections or if they will intervene, fearing a return of Thaksin. So far, they seem to stay put - outgoing defense minister General Prawit Wongsuwon told AFP he accepts the results and, after having talked with military leaders, will not get involved. Speaking of, the normally very outspoken commander-in-chief General Prayuth Chan-ocha has essentially given himself a gag order until a new government has been formed. Also,

In the meantime, there're still a lot of questions left from Sunday's election, like...

Why did the exit polls get it so horribly wrong? Right after the polls closed at 3pm, the exit polls predicted a huge landslide win for Pheu Thai with about 270 to well above 300 seats. But in the late afternoon and evening these number have proven to be greatly exaggerated - the margins of error where somewhere from 13.8 per cent to a whopping 22.8 per cent. Nevertheless, many people (including this author) got very excited in the heat of the moment and already were calling it based on these numbers. We should have known better that all these Thai polls have a notorious track record of being very wrong - so we all got eggs on out faces, but the pollsters have now some explaining to do:

Turakij Bandit Poll director blamed uncontrollable factors for the high error margins. He said that although the sampling process followed standard procedures, pollsters could not get enough Democrat Party supporters to take part in the exit polls, whereas Pheu Thai supporters such as red shirts who are politically active were more willing to speak their minds. Dusit Poll director Sukhum Chaloeisub agreed, saying most Democrat supporters were not accessible, while Pheu Thai backers were more politically expressive.

"Exit polls blasted for huge margins of error", The Nation, July 4, 2011

What's the voter turnout? Again, prediction and reality have proven to be two different things, even though not to such a large extend concerning the voter turnout. Many pundits have projected that at least 75 per cent of the electorate will go to the polls, while the Election Commission has now announced that it could be 66 per cent, which is of course much lower than expected. Throughout Sunday, voters were urged to cast their ballots sooner or later since in many parts of the country bad weather was fore-casted, but we'll have to wait for the official results, which brings us to...

When will we know the full unofficial results? It was announced to be published on Monday noon, but it has been postponed to Tuesday, because the results from a few districts in Mae Hong Son and Ranong province are not yet in, since these are reportedly cut off due to bad weather. Let the conspiracy theories begin...!

There are still many questions yet to be answered and many new questions will arise over the next few days, e.g. who will get which cabinet post? What will the new opposition do? Who got a seat in the House and who didn't? And were there less frauds in this elections? The next days will still be interesting!

Thailand's Democrat Party rally: Reclaiming (the truth about) Rajaprasong

Originally published at Siam Voices on June 24, 2011 The big screens flanking the stage on the left and the right are bearing a gruesome view. Footage of at times badly injured people from last year's rally are being shown when suddenly at the sight of blood people started cheering - as it turns out, not for the brutally killed victims of the anti-governments protests of 2010, but for a woman with an Abhisit cut-out mask waving to the crowd behind her.

Thursday's rally of the governing Democrat Party rings in the final days of a fiercely contested election campaign and the chosen venue was not a coincidence: Rajaprasong Intersection, where a little bit more than a year ago the red shirts held their rally for the better part of their nine and a half-week-campaign to force the government of prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva out, only to be dispersed in a chaotic crackdown by the military on May 19. 87 people lost their lives, more than 2,000 were injured and, for some a symbol of the 'red chaos', Central World, one of Asia's biggest shopping malls, burned down. The red shirts have returned a few times since then to remind people what happened.

Now the government has chosen this (almost) very same spot to show their version on the events of May 19, 2010. Unsurprisingly, the announcement to a rally at that place has been widely regarded as a deliberate provocation to the red shirts, who view this intersection as a symbol of state brutality and political oppression. The more anxious were the expectations on what or if they would do anything to disrupt the event in any way. Despite the Pheu Thai Party discouraging its supporters to stage a counter-protest, some smaller groups had hinted at convening at the site in some form. But during the whole evening, there have been no such incidents reported (though I heard there has been a cursing ritual at the nearby Erawan Shrine the day before).

Contrary to concerns that streets have to be closed off for yet another political rally, the Democrats have chosen the large plaza in front of the Central World. Since this is a private property, the approval of the owners was a privilege the red shirts didn't have and most unlikely will ever get. The stage, primarily in blue and with a big Thai flag as a background, was positioned in front of the burned down section of the mega-mall that is being rebuilt - another symbolism of the evening.

Supporters started to flock in hours before the event started with a jubilant mood, while many placards and signs are being handed out, many of them showing '10', the number on the ballot paper where the Democrat Party is listed. Several politicians and government ministers were warming up the estimated 5,000-strong crowd, while the same two Party's pop songs were blaring from the loudspeakers. Even two heavy rain showers were not enough to dampen the mood of the mostly older attendees.

The rally kicked off at 6pm with the National Anthem, when deputy prime minister Suthep Thaugsuban shortly thereafter begun his speech, which he has previously touted as the definite 'truth' about the crackdown. Suthep went straight ahead to his account, citing many pieces of evidence and lines of arguments that have been previously presented in some shape and form before. Suthep, broadly speaking*, argues that armed militia groups, dressed in black have caused casualties on both sides. But, according to him, no one has been killed directly at Rajaprasong, pointing that the other casualties have happened at places near the rally site. Additionally, the deputy prime minister hints that the late rogue Maj Gen Kattiya Sawasdipol aka "Seh Daeng" has been killed because of an internal argument over the leadership of the red shirts movement.

Of course, he could not resist taking a jab at the opposition, referencing their PM candidate Yingluck Shinawatra statement that she could not control the red shirts from heckling. Suthep understood her sentiment, only to add that the red shirts have 'hijacked' the Pheu Thai Party. "22 convicted criminals are on the ballot paper," mentioning the red shirt leaders running for office, "the worst case would be [jailed red shirt leader] Jatuporn Phromphan becoming a security minister - I'd better start hiding."

The next two speeches were held by former prime minister Chuan Leekpai and the party's campaign strategist Korbsak Sabhavasu, who (like all speakers) were interrupted with loud, approving cheers whenever a swipe at the red shirt leaders or Pheu Thai executives was made. Especially when Korbsak read some of the names on Pheu Thai's ballot, each name was replied with a disapproving, at times disgusted roar, to which he added: "You cannot have any reconciliation with these people!"

The long evening reached it's climax at 9pm, when a long video clip was played. This video montage, set to "O Fortuna", showed several quotes by red shirts leaders and Thaksin (including the infamous "We'll burn down the country"speech by Nattawut), accompanied by scenes of destruction, all allegedly done by red shirts, evoking some kind of Thai apocalypse. It was followed by another clip, which actually is the "We're sorry, Thailand"-ad from last year, which has created some controversy. But instead of showing the original slogan of the clip ("Seeding positive energy, changing Thailand [for the better]"), a portrait of Abhisit was shown.

The prime minister immediately took the stage, welcomed by load cheers. "We're here not to put more oil into the flame," said Abhisit, "but to show that this place is like any other place in the country, a place for all Thais." Before he continued, he asked from for a minute of silence for all victims. "The truth must be told", he continued and recounted the events of recent years ever since he took office, including the 2009 and 2010 protests, from his point of view. "People are saying I do not show much emotion," Abhisit said, "but on the night of April 10, I cried!"

The prime minister went on attack on Thaksin and the opposition in the closing moments of his speech:

"Why does their big boss hinder reconciliation? I don't understand! His followers are living a difficult life! (...) Like in the past, Thaksin thinks, the red shirt leaders act. This time it is the Pheu Thai Party that acts!"

"Society needs to help those who are legitimately angry and punish those who use them to incite violence!"

"If you don't vote at all or for us, fearing that the reds will come out again, then you'll be a hostage of those who incite fear! (...) If you want the country get rid of the poison that is Thaksin, then you should vote for us and vote for us to get more than 250 seats!"

The rally is an attempt by the government to (symbolically) reclaim Rajaprasong not only as a public space, but also to reclaim the sovereignty of interpretation over what has happened during the crackdown. The gloves are clearly off and the Democrats did not leave out a single opportunity to blame Thaksin for the 'mob'. The governing party is, if the polls are anything to go by, losing ground even in Bangkok. So in a sense this is also a reclaiming of the capital as their home battleground. Abhisit and his Democrat Party, having previously claimed to move on, are apparently not quite done yet with the past.

*Author's note: This article is aimed at re-telling the atmosphere of the event, rather than disseminating the 'facts' presented by the speakers bit by bit. This may or may not be addressed in another post.

Thai-Cambodian border clashes: Nationalist fever boils over

Originally published at Siam Voices on February 10, 2011 It has been nearly a week since the tense situation at the Thai-Cambodian border at the disputed ancient Hindu temple Preah Vihear escalated yet again, when troops on both sides exchanged gunfire and according to independent observers, killed 11 people on both sides. Even though no shooting has been reported since Tuesday, the current calm is more than fragile.

At the same time in Bangkok, the yellow-shirted PAD have been camping and rallying at Government House since late January, demanding the government to step down and calling for a stricter handling of the Thai-Cambodian border issue. By doing so, they are yet again playing the card of ultra-nationalism to justify their cause. But unlike at their last large-scale protest in 2008, this time it appears it is the only thing left for them is to cling on.

Ever since the rally started on January 25, the PAD's narrative and thus their constructed enemies were clear: Thai prime minister Abhsit, Cambodian prime minister Hun Sen, Thai defense minister Prawit Wongsuwan and the Cambodians at the border - they all have to leave in some way, whether its from their post or from the area the yellow shirts claim to be Thai soil. Additionally, the endless line of contributing speakers on the PAD stage are attacking the army for not being fierce enough with the issue, essentially calling them to reclaim the area by force.

But what is the PAD's rationale behind the ultra-nationalistic sabre rattling and the constant ripping of the current Thai government? Pavin Chachavalpongpun, a diplomat-turned-academic, explains:

At a deeper level, however, the conflict reveals a power struggle between the government and the PAD, the two main bastions of royalism in domestic Thai politics. The PAD is apparently manipulating the border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia to undermine the Democrat-led government of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva.

Relations between the two groups were not always so fractious. The Democrat Party and the PAD fought side-by-side to unseat the government of Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and its subsequent proxies. They were both also willing to use anti-Cambodian nationalism as a rallying cry. (...)

But after it formed a government in late 2008 through a backroom deal brokered by the military, the Democrat Party gradually distanced itself from the PAD and its yellow-shirt protesters in an attempt to rebuild the government's image. PAD members were infuriated. Many believed that they helped install the Democrat Party in power but never got the credit they deserved from the Abhisit government.

"Thailand's Rising Nationalism", by Pavin Chachavalpongpun, Wall Street Journal, February 9, 2011 (full text can be read here)

Furthermore, political analyst Thitinan Pongsudhirak (also known to some as 'the Quotemeister'), sees in the PAD a larger danger to the government than the red shirts:

PAD leading voices have since turned their oratory guns broadly at the powers-that-be, including the current army chief, Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban, Defence Minister Prawit Wongsuwon, and especially Mr Abhisit. (...)

Mr Sondhi (...) has been playing up his overseas Chinese roots in defiance of what he calls the 'poo dee', the blue-blooded high and mighty with privileged backgrounds. This 'poo dee' happens to coincide neatly with the red shirts' battle cry in 2009-10 against the amataya, although no realignment of these two social movements appears in the offing. But if the various colours against the 'poo dee' and the amataya are lined up at a future point, the powers-that-be should be gravely concerned.

"Where is the PAD going this time with its protests?", by Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Bangkok Post, February 8, 2011

Shawn Crispin of Asia Times Online, elaborates on another angle:

Still, some have speculated that the military has swung back towards the PAD with the transition from outgoing army commander General Anupong to new chief Prayuth as a way to pressure Abhisit out of his early election plan. With the reappearance of the PAD on Bangkok's streets, this time as ultra-nationalists in defense of Thai territory, local newspapers have been awash in unexplained coup rumors. (...)

That leaves Abhisit to convince Prayuth that early polls are a better bet than backing the PAD and fomenting instability on the border.

"Bombshells and rally cries", by Shawn Crispin, Asia Times Online, February 8, 2011

The cracks between the PAD and the ruling Democrat Party were visible for some time already. The most recent scathing attacks by the yellow shirts are a more than crystal-clear sign that their bond is broken beyond repair. Apart from that, it reveals a jaded frustration among the PAD that not only in their view they were not being credited enough for bringing down three governments they saw as morally illegitimate to rule, only then to see the successor not being much better either.

The PAD's experiment at participating in politics (by 'normal' means) in form of the New Politics Party ultimately failed to break ground in the political landscape and at the local voting booths, thus leading many senior figures, including Sondhi, to leave the party and return to the streets with the PAD, as they see it as the only way to bully through their cause. Furthermore, the jaded frustration indicates their struggle against growing irrelevancy and obscurity, with the also anti-government red shirts reenergizing during their last few rallies (which were invited by one PAD activist to join them in chasing out the government).

Meanwhile, the sabre rattling by the PAD's rhetoric has reached a new low on Monday when the leader Sondhi Limthongkul has - well, read it yourself:

Yellow-shirt leader Sondhi Limthongkul has urged the Thai military to seize Cambodian territory, including Angkor Wat, to barter for Preah Vihear Temple. (...)

The Thai armed forces should move forward to seize Battambang, Siem Riap, Angkor Wat and Koh Kong. And then, in negotiations which would be arbitrated by China and ASEAN, Thailand would barter them for Preah Vihear and force Cambodia to adopt the watershed for border demarcation instead of the 1:200,000 map, according to Sondhi.

He said that a diplomatic approach should not be used in a military campaign. Thailand must take the most advantageous position before any negotiation, and it is not making war with China or Vietnam, but with Cambodia which has no warships. Thailand must wield its greater military power when it has to.

‘[To] whoever says that we’re mad for war, none of us sitting here want our children to [go to war and] die, but to die for a great cause, to protect the land, is worth it.  We have 300,000 soldiers who are better equipped than Cambodian soldiers, but we lack the guts, because the senior military figures serve evil politicians.  Today, [Defence Minister] Gen Pravit Wongsuwan is not a soldier, but a politician who says anything for political gain.’

"Sondhi urges Thai military to seize Angkor Wat in exchange for Preah Vihear", Prachatai, February 9, 2011

P.S.: Nationalistic fervor is not exclusively a Thai issue here. The Cambodian blog KI-Media has an analysis about the situation across the border.

Videos show Thai MP, activists before arrest in Cambodia

Originally published at Siam Voices on January 3, 2011 Last week, seven Thais were arrested by Cambodian authorities for allegedly crossing the border into Cambodian territory illegally (check out previous coverage by fellow Siam Voices writer Thorn Pitidol and at Bangkok Pundit). Among the detained are Democrat MP Panich Vikitsreth and PAD-affiliated activists Samdin Lertbutr and Veera Somkwamkit. The latter is the leader of the Thai Patriot Network (TPN), known for its activities concerning the border issue, so much so it even got him into conflict with the PAD leaders themselves.

More details emerge about the circumstances of the arrest with the most important question being whether the men where (aware to be) on Cambodian territory or not. Three videos have appeared on YouTube (with no knowledge how the videos have been leaked, since the Cambodians must have seized everything) showing the men walking through the border region. In two of the videos, Panich is seen talking on the phone to someone.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5YTbiVA16Ss&w=600&h=360]"พนิช บุกรุกเขมรอภิสิทธิ์รู้ดี", video by 2011galet

Translated transcript of Panich's phone call (starting at 1:10 min):

"Hello [name], are you there? Can you hear me clearly? In case we lose the signal here, call Somkiat, the PM's secretary  - because we'll/I'll will talk to him personally, anyways - tell Somkiat we've crossed the border into Cambodia, so we can coordinate it, in case something happens. Tell him - we're now on Cambodian territory! But don't let anyone else know about it, only the PM knows!"

The PM should know about this since, he ordered him to investigate the region.

The second video shows a local talking to the men and again we see Panich talking on the phone. Whether it is the same person or even the same phone call as in the video above is not possible to determine.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l2K9RwUE-zA&w=600&h=360]"พนิช วิกิตวิเศรษฐ์คุยกับชาวเขมร", video by 2011galet

Translated transcript of Panich's phone call (starting at 0:38 min):

"...tell him we've crossed. We'll try to get to point 46 [46th boundary monument], which is on the Thai side, but is inhabited by Cambodians."

A third video shows the men wandering around and discussing about the territory, before being apprehended by Cambodians.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lAKcdU-RKNY&w=600&h=360]"คลิป พนิช เข้ากัมพูชา", video by gigcode

Translated transcript

Veera (the man holding a video camera, pointing at the concrete pole): "This fence here is Thai ground."

Unseen staff member: "If we cross here, then we're in Cambodia?"

Veera: "This is Thai territory, but they [the Cambodians] have claimed this for themselves. They have claimed it based on the 1:200.000 map. Thais can walk up to this point, if they cross it here, it's [still] Thai, that's an old Thai village over there, but the Cambodians have seized it all."

Panich: "Now it's full of Cambodians?"

Veera: "Yes, full of Cambodians! Let's go, if we go there, we'll get arrested for sure!" (group walks off)

Unseen staff member: "The border police will come...they will follow us."

Panich: "Our soldiers don't dare to come here?"

Veera: "If we get caught, the border police will come and help us out."

All: "Ah, here they come! They come in many. The soldiers are coming..."

Panich: "Are these their [Cambodian] troops?"

Veera: "Police Lieutenant Colonel Sawat, the one who helped me once, he insists that this Thai territory. [...] So, if we get caught, he'll help us" [...]

[Scene with Panich phone calls, the same as in the clips above]

[Scene at 2:15 shows them walking and Veera noting that they are now in Ban Nong Jarn (บ้านหนองจาน) and that they'll probably be arrested soon]

[Scene beginning 2:45 shows the group being stopped by a Cambodian man, possibly a soldier?]

[3:11, another man on a motorcycle arriving]

Cambodian man 1 (in Thai): One month ago there was no problem.

Thai group member: But this month there is a problem?

Cambodian man 1: You haven't told that you'd come...

Thai group member: Told whom?

Cambodian man 2: The police, the Thai border police...!

[The rest is entirely in Cambodian, some bits the author understood included along the lines of "We can talk about it" etc.]

Now, it is difficult to draw conclusions from these clips without the context. The clips do not show where exactly the group has been arrested. Furthermore, we haven't seen much of the locals - the one lady doesn't give much away. And how were the clips leaked? Nevertheless, some questions arise though: Was Prime Minister Abhisit aware of the group going entering Cambodian soil? Where was the Thai border police this time, if Veera claims to be certain that they would help? Was a deliberate attempt by the group to be arrested, since Veera was certain on that point as well? And ultimately, was the group on Cambodian territory or not when they were arrested?

In related news, there has been much action because of this in Bangkok as well. First off there was the admission (we can't talk about a confirmation per se) by Deputy Prime Minister Suthep that the group was on Cambodian soil. Then there was the rest of the TPN unsurprisingly up in arms about the arrest, so much so that they want the UN to help. And in the most recent developments, the TPN announces to protest at the border. As expected, the Thai authorities have declared the area a no-go zone. The TPN has led a similar protest in September 2009 at the border in Srisaket province, which in ended in clashes with police and locals. Also, in the latest absurd turn of events, TPN core-leader Chaiwat Sinsuwong blames defense minister Prawit Wongsuwon to have tipped off Cambodian troops to have the seven men arrested. The cynic in me says that the PAD must be delighted with the arrest of the seven men, since they would otherwise have nothing to protest on January 25 (except for some charter amendments maybe).

Thai Govt Proposes Constitution Changes, Evokes Ghosts of Protests' Past

Originally at Siam Voices on November 17, 2010 The cabinet has approved the amendments of two points in the 2007 constitution. The points concern parliamentary approval before signing international treaties and to increase of MPs in the house to 500 - 375 constituencies and 125 on a proportional basis.

Tuesday's announcement is part of an overall six-point amendment proposal with one major point not being finally considered by now*:

The panel proposed that Section 237 be amended to avoid the dissolution of parties in cases of electoral fraud, while imposing stricter penalties on individual politicians found responsible of breaches. The committee recommended that ordinary MPs found guilty of poll fraud be banned from politics for five years, party executives be banned for 10 years and party leaders be banned for 15 years.

"Charter tweak 'ready by next Tuesday'", Bangkok Post, October 25, 2010

Section 237 of the 2007 constitution has been a long-running bone of contention that played not an insignificant role in the recent years of the political crisis.

The first original attempt to change the Section 237 was back in 2008, when the governing People‘s People Party (PPP) wanted to prevent a similar fate to it‘s predecessor Thai Rak Thai party, which was dissolved in 2007. Then-opposition leader Abhisit was against this change:

Opposition Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva said on Monday he did not believe Article 309 [granting amnesty to the coup makers] and 227 [sic! but they meant 237 here] of the Constitution pose major problems that they need to be amended. (...) He said the Democrats had their own Constitution amendment draft ready to be tabled for the House scrutiny. "We want to know the reasons why other parties want to amend these two articles,'' he said.

"Abhisit: Article 309 and 237 not a major problem", The Nation, March 31, 2008

This was also one of the reasons that reignited the PAD protests, in which they (in)famously seized the Government House and the Bangkok airports in the following months. They argued that the charter amendments were done in "self-interest" and they feared a "silent coup" by the government of then-PM Samak. The protests ended in late 2008 when the ruling PPP and their coalition partners were dissolved by the constitution court because of voting frauds and thus on basis of that very article 237.

After the change of power to the Democrat-led government, there was a long back-and-forth among the coalition partners and mostly with themselves on whether to change parts of the constitution or not. Once the Democrat Party was for a change, then against it but still denied any rifts in the party, the coalition partners were pushing for a change, the opposition weren't sure themselves at all, then they were against it, the government continued to push the proposals, which has led to even more arguments in the party, even though that was denied once again.

The question that comes up in this story is why would the Democrat Party would approve the change of of article 237, which they previously opposed? As Suranand Vejjajiva recently wrote in a column, it's a "political ploy to keep the coalition partners intact with the ruling Democrat Party" and that the coalition parties are all for a change because "many of [them] were affected by the party dissolution and the revocation of political rights clauses". Now hit with a corruption case corruption case of their own (but with the constitution court judging on it utterly in shambles), the Democrat Party may theoretically have to deal with the same fate.

And where does the PAD stand on this now?

The Peoples Alliance for Democracy remains firm in its stand that constitutional amendments must not be designed to whitewash politicians under a political ban, PAD spokesman Panthep Puapongpan said on Tuesday.

He said the amendments must also not made to serve the interests of politicians and must not infringe on His Majesty the King's power. If the proposed amendments contravened its stand the PAD would certainly move against them, he said.

"PAD stands firm on charter change", Bangkok Post, October 26, 2010

Same old, same old, it seems. Will they take it to the streets again, if this government pushes through the changes?

*(The other points of this proposal, especially the change of the voting system, will be tackled in a future post.)

Confusion Before Saturday's Protests over Preah Vihear

Note: This post has been originally published on August 7, 2010 in series of guest blogger posts forBangkok Pundit at AsianCorrespondent.

Veera Somkwamkid, leader of the Thailand Patriot Network (photo courtesy of Eric Seldin aka @thaicam, click here to see the rest of his gallery)

As previously blogged here, the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), by the time you read this, are now on the streets again to protest in front of Government House over the ongoing Preah Vihear temple issue, despite the emergency decree - or are they?

Over the course of Friday, developments changed rapidly over the legality of the protests, the venue and in the end who's actually in charge of the protests that have witnessed a fallout between different fraction of the protesters. On Friday morning this was the status quo:

PAD to gather in front of the Govt House starting 8AM tomorrow, to pressure the Govt to cancel MOU43 http://bit.ly/9vptQH

Tweet by @TAN_Network (TAN News Network) on Friday, Aug 06, 2010 at 05:31:44

(Note: TAN News Network is the English language sister channel of ASTV, the PAD's news outlet)

But there were still questions about the legality of the protests, since we still have a state of emergency ever since the anti-government protests some months ago. On this issue, the first conflicting reports appeared. First it was reported the Center for the Resolution of the Emergency Situation (CRES) has issued that the rally "does not violate the emergency decree". In a way the CRES would legitimize the protester's claim why they don't violate against the state of emergency. Last week, when the same protesters were rallying in front of the Bangkok bureau of UNESCO, many were claiming to "protect the country" so they would not violate the emergency decree.

But then the local police has announced the area around Government House is a no-go area. So, the police disagrees with the army. Well, that's not the first that has ever happened.

Short time later though, ASTV reported that the CRES has done a complete 180 degree turn of its earlier decision and also banned protesters from the site. Later that day, CRES has announced more details on the ruling:

CRES announces Government House 'off limits'; four roads around complex closed from 8pm, violators face two years imprisonment,Bt40,000 fine

Tweet by @MCOTEnglishnews (MCOT English News) on Friday, Aug 06, 2010 at 13:08:52

With the legality dealt there were still confusions on who actually are protesting on Saturday and where to go now since Government House was declared off-limits.

To understand who were are dealing with, it has to be noted that it is not actually the PAD (the yellow shirts) that are leading the latest Preah Vihear protests, but the Thailand Patriot Network (TPN) of Veera Somkwamkid. More on him later, but it can be already said that these two groups are affiliated with each other. Officially, the PAD (especially with Chamlong Srimuang being present all the time) are there just to support this campaign.

The more surprising (or not) was the announcement in the early evening that the PAD would move its protest somewhere else:

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva on Friday said that yellow shirts have agreed to move their rally from the Government House to Kilawes Stadium in Din Daeng area. The decision to move the rally site came after two-hour-and-a-half meeting between Abhisit and representatives of yellow shirts network.

"Yellow rally to move from Government House to a Din Daeng stadium PM", The Nation, August 2010

The Kilawes Stadium is located in the Thai-Japanese Sports Complex in Din Daeng, a Bangkok district that has been constantly the scene of street riots between protesters and soldiers in the past years. It was also reported that the protest has been 'downgraded' to a 'forum' to 'discuss' about this matter. Later, Bangkok Post reported that TPN also agrees to move.

But then in the evening, things have changed again!

Veera's group - Network of Preah Vihear Protectors - is determined to gather outside the PM's office in Government House today as planned. "We don't acknowledge the deal between the prime minister and the other group," Veera declared on television yesterday. [...]

PAD leaders were initially planning to rally in front of Government House to demand that Abhisit revoke the 2000 memorandum of understanding on boundary demarcation with Cambodia as well as voice their opposition to Preah Vihear's inscription as a World Heritage Site.

The Dharma Army Foundation, led by Chamlong Srimuang, later agreed to gather at the Thai-Japanese Stadium in Din Daeng today to express their views, concerns and visions with respect to Preah Vihear. Abhisit was to join the forum later in the day.

However, Veera refused to compromise and continued calling on people to join his protest.

"Defiant PAD group to go ahead with rally", The Nation, August 7, 2010

Evidently, Veera and his group have deflected from the PAD to stage their on protest at Government House, despite the area being sealed off. This apparent split between him and the PAD goes back on a series of incidents and partly some mudslinging between the two. Last year, Veera has led a group of 4,000 protesters under the PAD banner to the Thai-Cambodian border to protest about this very Preah Vihear issue that ended in riots with locals. The following day, the PAD leaders in Bangkok have denied any connections or endorsement to this group and their actions.

Then, earlier this year in June, Veera and the PAD were reported to have fallen out with each other. Matichon has obtained email exchanges between the PAD leaders with the PAD supporter's group in the US and Veera answering questions to someone. In the first mail, the PAD leaders have responded and denied to accusations made by Veera, an anti-corruption activist and until recently host of his own show on ASTV. The accusations includes being overcharged by ASTV to hold his own show, in which as a consequence Veera pulled it off the air and offered it to For Humankind TV (FMTV), that belongs to the religious buddhist sect Santi Asoke, of which PAD leader Chamlong is a devotee. I will not further go into the details of the two mails, as they go too deep to be relevant to this topic.

Nevertheless, it will be interesting to see how and if at all the security authorities will deal with the two protests, especially the one in front of Government House. If the UNESCO protest of last week is anything to go by, it can be expected that the security forces will be far more lenient to the PAD and their affiliated groups than they were with the red shirts. Let alone the fact that prime minister Abhisit has met with these group for talks (again) shows that the what influence they still have over the government and also one must not forget that the yellow shirt leaders still have not been charged for the seizure of Government House and the Bangkok airports in 2008, as they indictments have been repeatedly postponed just as recently as last week.

We can also expect that both these groups will further push their nationalistic agenda under the pretext of 'protecting' the country. Whether the government will give in to the protesters (in a way they already did) or not, this will further complicates the already tense relations between Thailand and Cambodia.

Thailand's Generals Play Musical Chairs - Part 2

Note: This post has been originally published on August 3, 2010 in series of guest blogger posts for Bangkok Pundit at AsianCorrespondent. This is the second part in a two-part series on the upcoming military command reshuffle. In part one, James Harriman has reflected on the new ranks below the commander-in-chief. Today, this post highlights the aspirants on the top army post.

Every September is the time where the Thai military faces the annual game of musical chairs, where the many high-ranking generals are eager for a promotion. With the upcoming retirement of the current commander-in-chief Gen Anupong Paochinda, the question of the successor reveals the still substantial political weight of the kingdom's highest ranking soldier.

But this year though, September can't come fast enough for some.

In fact, Defence Minister Prawit Wongsuwon has already set July 20 as the deadline for commanders of the armed forces to send in their reshuffle lists to the defence permanent secretary, Gen Apichart Penkitti. These lists could even be in Gen Prawit's hands before the month ends. According to the schedule, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva should be able to send the names for royal endorsement within August.

"Democrats In A Rush To Anoint Prayuth", by Wassana Nanuam, Bangkok Post, July 15, 2010

The government's favorite candidate for the top post is Gen Prayuth Chan-ocha, currently deputy commander-in-chief and a graduate of class 12 of the Armed Forces Academies Preparatory School - this is where all future top commanders go through.

Like in many aspects in Thai society, interpersonal relationships and affiliation play a big role in determining the status of a person and his or her chances of being promoted.

To understand the importance of personal relationships and the graduation years inside the army to ascend through the ranks, I recommend reading Paul Chamber's lengthy, but in-depth essay on New Mandala. It also contains a handy list of all the current top army officers.

As Chambers has pointed out, Gen Anupong and Gen Prayuth were ex-commanders of the 21st Infranty Batallion of the Second Army Division, more commonly known as the "Queen's Guard" - a highly influential military unit that also have played a decisive part in the military crackdown against the anti-government red shirt protesters on May 19. This unit has also over the decades been actively supported by Privy Council president Gen Prem Tinsulanond.

Getting back to the government's intentions, one has to look back at the most recent red shirts protests. It is reported that the relationship between prime minister Abhisit had its rough patches since Gen Anupong has shown some hesitation to move against the protesters, while Gen Prayuth has maintained and even improved his ties to the government during the protests, so a promotion to the top rank can be seen as a reward for him.

With the potential appointment of Gen Prayuth comes also a long list of aspirants that are expected to take the seats below him. James Harriman has reflected on that aspect yesterday.

Even though the promotion for Gen Prayuth is almost certain, there are some musings that he might face some competition. Gen Piroon Phaeopolsong, currently army chief-of-staff, is considered to be the dark horse in the race for the next commander-in-chief.

In late July, Matichon Weekly has listed three reasons that could favor him for the top spot: Firstly, Gen Piroon hails from the same cavalry unit as Gen Prem, who himself would like to see one his of kind becoming commander-in-chief (แถมทั้งมีแรงดันจากบ้านสี่เสาเทเวศร์ ที่อยากให้ พล.อ.พิรุณ ซึ่งเป็นทหารม้าลูกป๋า ขึ้นเป็น ผบ.ทบ. สร้างประวัติศาสตร์ให้ทหารม้า มาเป็น ผบ.ทบ. อีกสักคน หลังจากที่ทหารม้าซบเซามาตั้งแต่หมดยุคป๋าเปรม). Also, as both Matichon Weekly and the Bangkok Post (already last year) have pointed out:

Another advantage of Gen Piroon, who has advanced in his career from the cavalry, is that he is regarded as one of Gen Prem Tinsulanonda's proteges. The president of the Privy Council banked on Gen Piroon to make his dream of seeing the set-up of the new 3rd Cavalry Division in Khon Kaen come true. Gen Prem had reportedly made a remark to leading soldiers that, "If I see the 3rd Cavalry Division before I die, I will die peacefully.''

"PM Abhisit, Gen Prayuth and their common future", by Wassana Nanuam, Bangkok Post, December 12, 2009

Secondly, the 2nd Cavalry Division is regarded as one of the leading forces behind the storm on the red shirt protest site from the Sala Daeng area (the Silom intersection) and Gen Piroon, because of his role as army chief-of-staff and his cavalry origins, is regarded as one of the masterminds (กำลังทหารม้าจากกองพลทหารม้าที่ 2 รักษาพระองค์ (พล.ม.2 รอ.) ก็กลายเป็นพระเอก เพราะเป็นกำลังหลักในการบุกเข้ากระชับพื้นที่ด่านศาลาแดง ด่านใหญ่ที่สุดของคนเสื้อแดงที่เชื่อว่าอันตรายที่สุด ซึ่งก็มี พล.อ.พิรุณ ซึ่งเป็นทหารม้าในฐานะ เสธ.ทบ. ก็มีส่วนร่วมวางแผน ).

And lastly, Matichon names the 'Buriram connection' as a factor favoring Piroon, since he hails from the north-eastern province - same as influential and powerful politicians like Newin Chinchob, leader of the Bhumjaithai Party (key coalition partner of the government) and whose relatives are regional power brokers. (สิ่งที่ทำให้ พล.อ.พิรุณ ถูกจับตามองขึ้นมา ทั้งๆ ที่แรงแผ่ว ก็คือ "บุรีรัมย์ คอนเน็กชั่น" ด้วยเพราะเหตุที่เป็นคนบุรีรัมย์ เช่นเดียวกับนักการเมืองคนสำคัญ และฮ็อตที่สุด มีเพาเวอร์ที่สุดในยุคนี้ อย่าง นายเนวิน ชิดชอบ แกนนำพรรคภูมิใจไทย แถมซ้ำมีเครือญาติที่เป็นกำลังหลักในพื้นที่ของนายเนวิน).

Out of all three factors, the 'Buriram connection' appears to be weakest argument, since no political party has a say in military issues except the Democrat Party. Nevertheless, Piroon's Isaan origin could make him a more 'agreeable' candidate among all political factions in contrast to Gen Prayuth, who has not made big efforts to hide his opposition to Thaksin.

Also, Gen Piroon is a graduate of class 10, same as current commander-in-chief Gen Anupong - who is actually reported to favor Piroon to become his successor (ตัว พล.อ.อนุพงษ์ เองก็ไม่ขัดข้องหากเพื่อนรักที่เขาขุนมากับมือ จะขึ้นมาเป็น ผบ.ทบ. ก่อนปีหนึ่ง).

One factor that speaks in favor of Prayuth is that, since he is a class 12 graduate, his retirement will be in 2014. Piroon on the other hand, can only be commander-in-chief for one year. So, it is more likely that he will be pushed to be chairman of the Royal Army Advisory Board, a position that has little influence in the ranks.

So, in the more than likely event that Gen Prayuth becomes commander-in-chief, it will be seen as a further attempt to strengthen the ties between the Democrat-led government and the armed forces. The irony is though that with the impending dissolution case of Democrat Party, the next commander-in-chief will survive the current government and with a new one, the game of musical chairs starts anew.

Further reading & sources:

• Bangkok Post: Democrats in a rush to anoint Prayuth
• Bangkok Post: PM Abhisit, Gen Prayuth and their common future
• Bangkok Post: There's no sitting on the fence for Class 10 alumni
• Bangkok Post: Two key units tighten grip on armed forces
• Matichon Weekly: "ประยุทธ์" ยึด ผบ.ทบ. โผทหารฉบับ "เสือตะวันออก" จับตา "ป๋าป๊อก" กับความฝันหลังเกษียณ (paywall alert!)
• Paul Chambers: The challenges for Thailand’s arch-royalist military

Govt Survives Vote of Confidence But Coalition Partners At Each Other's Throat

246 - 186 - 11 for PM Abhisit Veijajiva, 245 - 187 - 11 for Deputy PM Suthep Thaugsuban, 244 - 187 - 12 for Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij and 239 - 190 - 15 for Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya. These are the bold numbers that show the government has survived yet another battle as politics came back to parliament earlier this week as it faced a vote of no confidence regarding the military crackdown on the anti-government red shirt protesters on May 19 and unsurprisingly, there was a lot of bad blood boiling before the vote.

From the time the debate opened on Monday morning until its close on Tuesday, bitter and heated exchanges have highlighted the depth of animosity and distrust between those aligned to the anti-government Redshirts, on the one hand, and the Democrat party-led government, on the other.

While the words exchanged were blunt, giving the debate an air of transparency and frankness, they were not necessarily truthful or accurate. But then such is the way in almost any parliament in the world. The difference is that this debate took place after unprecedented violence on the streets of Bangkok.

And while heated discussion of a variety of incendiary and controversial issues is part and parcel of what parliamentary debate is about in a healthy democracy, it remains to be seen whether the acrimonious debate smoothes the way for Abhisit's reconciliation plan. (...)

Peua Thai MP and Redshirt leader Jatuporn Promphan accused the government of trying to hide the truth about the recent clashes, while the government in turn accused the protestors of harming their own people to discredit the government and security forces. Focusing on Deputy Prime Minister Suthep, Jatuporn said that the government “accuses us of paying people to die.” He added that, “If I can hire someone, I would pay for Suthep to die.” (...)

Puea Thai Party Chairman Chalerm Yoobamrung questioned a number of government ministers, including the prime minister. His interrogation included a grilling of Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya, whom he accused of “wretched and vile comments” about the Thai monarchy in a speech that Kasit gave at Johns Hopkins University in April.

"Mantras, Misperceptions and Mutual Acrimony in Thai MP Debate", The Irrawaddy, June 2, 2010

The last paragraph is referring to Kasit's (unusually for him) level-headed remarks about the Thai monarchy during a long (usual) rant about Thaksin and countries that are allegedly helping him.

The parliamentary debate went on for hours, partly had to be stopped at 2 AM in the morning with the MPs still at each other's throat (if anyone was still watching the complete live broadcast on TV). I was only (physically and mentally) able to occasionally drop in out onto the house sessions for some minutes at a time. But from what I heard during the debates, the rhetoric on both sides (during the times I switched to) was at least as fierce as it was during the protests from the red shirt stage - aggressive, rude and at times borderline ugly. The politicians did nothing to win back the trust of the people into the political institutions. The much promotoed "reconciliation" of Abhisit is nowhere to be seen.

While it appeared before the vote that the opposition Puea Thai Party has some problems keeping their MPs in line, another battle line was drawn inside the coalition as Bhumjaithai Party's Interior Minister Chavarat Charnvirakul and Transport Minister Sohpon Zraum have failed to get the minimum 238 votes to survive the no confidence vote (236 and 234 respectively). All eyes were on the Pheua Phaendin Party, whose MPs were allowed to freely vote for or against the ministers and apparently 10 of them did vote against Chavarat and Sohpon. The aftermath is now is ugly:

Bhumjaithai lashed out at Puea Pandin following the no-confidence debate yesterday accusing it of "back-stabbing" and demanding that it leave the coalition.

Puea Pandin MPs either cast votes of no confidence or abstained from voting yesterday for Interior Minister Chavarat Charnvirakul, the Bhumjaithai leader, and Transport Minister Sohpon Zarum.

Newin Chidchob, Bhumjaithai's de facto leader, was particularly upset by the perceived slight. A government source said the party powerbroker told Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and Deputy Premier Suthep Thaugsuban, the government manager, that Puea Pandin's actions were unacceptable.

The row between the two partners has simmered for some time with Bhumjaithai said to have the upper hand.

The parties have locked horns over local development budget allocations and the annual transfer of state officials.

There is also an unsettled score involving political wrangling in the lower Northeast between Boonjong Wongtrairat and Mr Newin of Bhumjaithai, and Pinij Charusombat and Pairote Suwunchwee of Puea Pandin.

Mr Newin is also believed to hold a personal grudge against Kasem Rungthanakiat, who turned to Mr Pairote's party instead of joining Bhumjaithai when the People Power Party was dissolved. Mr Kasem's move to Puea Pandin quashed Mr Newin's hopes of consolidating his political stronghold in the lower Northeast.

"Coalition rivals face off", Bangkok Post, June 3, 2010

Worse, Bhumjaithai is now demanding the Phuea Phaendin Party to be thrown out of the coalition. As of now, the Democrat Party was considering to reshuffle the cabinet:

The Puea Pandin Party is expected to be removed from the government coalition in a coming cabinet reshuffle, a highly-placed source in the government says. Democrat secretary-general Suthep Thaugsuban has bowed to the demand of Bhumjaithai Party de facto leader Newin Chidchob to remove Puea Pandin from the coalition.

The source yesterday said Mr Suthep had agreed to Mr Newin's plan after hearing how he could make up for the reduced number of coalition MPs in parliament without Puea Pandin. The coalition government would be left with 22 fewer votes of support through the departure of Puea Pandin.

Puea Pandin has 32 MPs, but 10 come under the influence of Pol Gen Pracha Promnok and they did not support the administration in the first place. The source said Mr Newin had given assurances to Mr Suthep that he could find adequate support to stabilise the coalition alliance following Puea Pandin's departure.

Mr Newin's plan calls for the coalition to keep at least 11 votes: five from the Ban Rim Nam faction of Puea Pandin which supports the government and six from the Matubhumi and Pracharaj parties, which are now in the opposition and each hold three seats in the lower house.

The government also might secure six or eight more seats if Puea Pandin MP for Udon Thani Chaiyos Jiramethakarn can talk his colleagues into leaving the party.

The source said Mr Newin had suggested the three groups be given a deputy ministerial post each. Mr Chaiyos's group might be given a ministerial post if more than eight seats could be secured.

"Puea Pandin On Way Out", Bangkok Post, June 4, 2010

The article goes on about the ministerial posts that could be affected by the reshuffle. In the current cabinet, there are four Phuea Phaendin posts: the Deputy Minister of Education, the Minister of Industry, the Deputy Minister of Finance and the infamous Minister for Information and Technology. The last three could fall into the hands of the Democrat Party if Phuea Phaendin is thrown out.

As for the balance of power in the parliament, the current five-party-coalition (including Democrat Party with 172 and Bhumjai, Phuea Phaendin 32 seats each) has 270 seats, while the opposition Puea Thai Party has 189 and the remaining 16 seats are split between 3 minor parties. If the 32 Phuea Phaendin MPs are thrown out, the coalition is left with 238 seats, just one more than the opposition. So the horsetrading is no surprise with attempts to convince certain Phuea Phaendin MPs, but also the smaller opposition parties to jump ship and change the sides. The decision is to take place Friday.

Even if everything turns out okay for the coalition, with Phuea Phaendin on board or not, this alliance will be even shakier than before. What also became apparent with the fallout between the second and third largest coalition parties is that there is hardly any traditional political alliances between parties as seen in many European democracies, many politicians just want to be where the sun shines the brightest and are willing to do almost anything, many of the parties had no problems to align themselves with the now disbanded Thaksin-proxy People's Power Party.

The tragedy in this whole issue is that parliament has shown its ugly side again when the censure sessions deteriorated to just a shouting-match at times. Does anybody still think about the red shirts, the deaths of the protests and the roots of the problems, that got us here in the first place?

What Is Conor David Purcell Up To?

Does anyone remember Conor David Purcell, the Aussie who appeared on the red shirt stage and was fighting along with the anti-government protesters? Of course you do! How else can I explain myself that my blog post on him from earlier this month is by far the most read article on this blog. It has accumulated 1,370 clicks by today and at least nearly half of them came in this week. So what happened to him that has increased the interest again? Well, the bloke's in jail!

THAI police have arrested an Australian man in Bangkok for allegedly violating an emergency decree, after a court handed him a suspended sentence for a visa infringement.

Conor David Purcell, 30, was arrested and charged for breaching emergency law, an offence which carries up to two years jail time, Thai police said.

Speaking from his cell, Mr Purcell said he was a liaison for the military because he was the only one prepared to run through the bullets, the ABC reported.

Mr Purcell, who served for seven years in the Australian army, was working in Bangkok as a language teacher.

Sources from the immigration detention centre in Bangkok said Mr Purcell was a regular speaker at recent anti-government rallies in Bangkok.

A spokesperson for Australia's Department of Foreign Affairs said the man was detained on Sunday and charged with overstaying his visa.

"Australia Conor David Purcell arrested over Thai protests", The Daily Telegraph, May 25, 2010

Purcell has been arrested alongside a Briton named Jeff Savage, who is accused to have taken part in the looting and the burning of the Central World shopping center shortly after the military crackdown on May 19, at least he was caught on tape yelling to do so.

Well, even prime minister Abhisit had something to say about these two.

"For the Australian man it's not yet clear, but in the case of the Briton he's involved with the (red shirt) movement in Pattaya," Abhisit said. He said officials would also probe other allegations against the men.

There have been reports that Purcell was a former member of the Australian army and that he received training as a sniper, however embassy sources are understood to have suggested neither claim was true. Purcell, arrested on Sunday, is now in Klong Prem prison.

Abhisit said: "Indepth investigations will be carried out to find out whether they had any other role."

"Two foreigners arrested", The Nation, May 26, 2010

Both men showed up at the court today for their first hearing and while Savage was reported to have "broken down" (source), Purcell was in a fiercely defiant mood.

Dressed in orange prison-issue shirt and shorts, barefoot and shackled in leg-irons, a furious Mr Purcell was led in to Pathumwan Municipal Court in Bangkok yesterday, protesting that he was being unlawfully held.

Visibly angry at his detention, Mr Purcell, 29, a former soldier, refused to stand when told and then yelled at the judge that he would not accept the court's right to try him. ''Nobody in this country has authority over me,'' he said.

He brushed aside a representative from the Australian embassy who was asking him to be quiet and continued his tirade, shaking and pointing at the judge. ''I'm not under Thai law. I'm only obeying international law. I'm head of the red gang,'' he yelled.

Jeff Savage, a British man also arrested for his role in the protest, sitting next to Mr Purcell in court, burst into tears.

"Australian launches tirade in Thai court", The Sydney Morning Herald, May 28, 2010

To say the least, especially with the last sentence, he's not doing himself any favor now...

Roundup: The Crackdown, Day 3 - Six Dead, 31 Wounded

Note: This post highlights everything what happened after I had to sign off from the live blog earlier today. Another day of deadly clashes send central Bangkok deeper and deeper into a spiral of violence and already too far away for any peaceful solution of this conflict. Official figures report six have been killed today, 31 injured. None of them are soldiers.

After the CRES has gone on air two times today, prime minister Abhisit was seen publicly for the first time in many days when he made a TV address Saturday evening.

"We regret that the campaign has claimed lives of people. However it is the only choice we could do to deal with the situation," he said in a special TV-pool programme," he said. He ensured that the campaign will do the best to keep the loss minimal.

He said the reds have held hostage the country and the government , therefore, the government has no choice but to suppress them. He insisted that the government had tried every means to handle the chaos in the country which is caused by "the terrorists".

"The only way to end the loss of lives is that the protest ends immediately. The protest has been organised for the benefits of just small groups of people," the premier said. He called for people not to participate in the cycle that created chaos in the country. (...)

He also called for the public to screen information about the situation, particularly that from the reds side, because they could claim anything without giving evidence and proof.

"PM regret loss of lives", The Nation, May 15, 2010

It was important for Abhisit to show up as questions about his presence were looming and also to show that he's (at least appears) in power and has not been sidelined by the military. Abhisit more or less admits that diplomatic means to end the protests have failed and that this is the only way to end this protest.

Many video footages of today's clashes from international media, like this one from the BBC, were made on Rama IV Road, South of the rally site, but similar scenes happened elsewhere in Bangkok:

There were many reports on the streets that snipers were firing at protesters. Some of the protesters were setting barricades of tires on fire, sending up tall plumes of smoke apparently in an effort to keep out troops, who have been setting up a cordon around the protest area.

"Thai Government Takes Harder Stance as Clashes Continue", by Seth Mydans and Thomas Fuller, New York Times, May 15, 2010

This video shows a military sniper from building shooting at protesters.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sAc_iecUgkw&w=600&h=360]

Also, CNN correspondent Dan Rivers has footage (starting at 2:40 minutes) from the same spot and also reports that the video "clearly shows that the army is shooting at people".

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=btp-wUvNXuM&=600&h=360]

As I'm writing this another day beings in Bangkok and there'll be likely violent clashes and casualties again. Both fractions will stay their course and try to chase the other side away. The situation has become increasingly life-threatening for third parties such as ambulance workers and members of the media. At the rally site itself the first effects of the blockade have appeared in form of food shortages, but the speakers on the stage cheer the supporters to carry on.

Further reading:

• Jodi Ettenberg (Legal Nomads): More Deadly Clashes in Central Bangkok (Eyewitness account from local blogger and media roundup)
• Patrick Winn (Global Post): Counting Bodies, One Click at at Time (The role of social media during this crisis)
• Thomas Fuller (New York Times): The Fury Outside My Window (Eyewitness account)
• Nirmal Ghosh (Straits Times): Thailand: The Land of Snarls (A battle of words among red and yellow supporters)
• Greg to Differ: The Role of Twitter in the Bangkok Protests

CRES Botches Up 'Measures' Against Protesters, Govt Scraps Nov 14 Election Date

The short version of Wednesday's events:

Thai army spokesman says postponing measure to cut off supplies to protesters

Tweet by Reuters Breaking News (@REUTERSFLASH)

Thai Govt withraws election offer. Reds refuse to move, nothing now left to lose. Back to Square 1, Take 100.

Tweet by Aela Callan (@aelacallan), Al Jazeera English

The long version of Wednesday's events:

After the ultimatum given out by the prime minister yesterday to cut off water and electricity in the rally area there was some anticipation on what was going to happen on Wednesday night. Residents living near the rally site were already looking for a place to stay somewhere else. But then nothing happened!

The Centre for the Resolution of the Emergency Situation (CRES) on Wednesday night decided to postpone cutting off water and power supplies to the Ratchaprasong area for fear of causing hardships to residents in the area.

CRES spokesman Col Sansern Kaewkamnard said authorities has to carefully consider the matter because there are a lot of important installations in the area such as embassies, schools and hospitals.

"CRES postpones cutting off water, power supplies to Ratchaprasong", Bangkok Post, May 12, 2010

Looking at the map of the area (by Richard Barrow) you can see that there are many important building like the British Embassy and the Police General Hospital. And after the Chula Hospital fiasco certainly it would be bad press to have another hospital being disrupted - at least they must have been noticed before and plans for relocation of the patients must have been made already, but none of that happened.

It seemed that this measures would have done more harm to the residents in that area than it does on the protesters.

"Firstly, we are using our own electricity generators, so we are not dependent on the public power source," said one, Jatuporn Prompan. "Secondly, if the government decides to cut water ... this will also affect half of the city. So we do not care about the government's threat."

"Thai gov't to cut water, power to protesters", Associated Press, May 12, 2010

Weren't they thinking of that before? How bad is their intelligence? All in all I seriously ask whose knee-jerk reaction it initially was? Was it Abhisit who made his first own ultimatum to the red shirt leaders and thus caught the army off-guard? Or was it the CRES' idea but did not think that through and actually talked to the public utility companies? Either way, they made themselves look foolish and gave the red shirts a small victory.

Meanwhile, the government made clear again that they are fed up with red shirts answer (or the lack of it) to the 'reconciliation roadmap' by calling off the proposed November 14 election date. While the deal itself is not yet off the table the proposed timeframe of dissolving parliament in September and then to call snap polls for November 14 is now dead. Abhisit has earlier mentioned that he would carry on with his 'roadmap' but then apparently without the consensus of the red shirts.

In other news, the red leaders have denied ongoing persistent rumors of a split in the leadership of the movement as it was reported that one of them, Veera Musikapong, has quit (on his own or not) from the red shirts. Veera has not been seen for several days on stage now, but Dr. Weng Tojirakarn assured that he would be just ill and he'll be back soon.

All in all, it was actually an anticlimactic day thanks to a major screw-up by the government. Nevertheless, we are not back at square one as Ms. Callan tweeted before - both sides have hardened their stances (again) and the red sides have a leadership problem among themselves again. Let's see if the government get their act together and start to put pressure on the red shirts - effectively! But on the other hand...

As today is an auspicious day it is unlikely that there will be an army crackdown in the coming hours.

Tweet by Richard Barrow (@RichardBarrow)

Nevertheless, right now at this moment...

Ratchaprasong rocking out this am in all it's electrified and hydrated glory. Louder music than normal. #redshirts

Tweet by Anasuya Sanyal (@Anasuya), Channel News Asia

PM Abhisit Gives Reds Ultimatum to Disperse

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva issued an ultimatum to the red shirts to leave the Rajprasong protest site by today after their failure to honour their commitment to end the protest (...) The government would step up measures to force them to leave the areas and such measures might also affect people who live and do business there, he said. "If they have sincerely accepted the road map for national reconciliation as announced earlier, the protesters should go home by May 12 and we can discuss other matters in detail later," Abhisit told reporters.

"PM to red shirts: Leave today", The Nation, May 12, 2010

A source at the Centre for the Resolution of the Emergency Situation said the new school term was another reason to clear the area. Most schools are due to resume on Monday.

The source said if UDD leaders do not end their protest today, Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban would consult army chief Anupong Paojinda about measures to end the protest. However, the source said the CRES yesterday did not discuss mobilising security forces against the red shirts.

The new army plans include cutting off water and electricity supplies to the Ratchaprasong area to put more pressure on the red shirts to go home. Security forces would surround the rally site and prevent more red shirt supporters from taking part.

"Irked PM says 'rally ends today'", Bangkok Post, May 12, 2010

This decision, the first ultimatum that was directly issued by Abhisit himself, comes after the red shirt leaders have again insisted that deputy prime minister Suthep to report himself to the Police's Crime Suppression Division and not the Department of Special Investigation (same claim as Monday).

The red shirts have driven themselves into a dead-end after stubbornly leaving everybody waiting, hardly agreeing themselves on what to do with the PM's roadmap offer (and also showing an internal conflict among the leaders) and in the end to break down because Suthep has to report himself to one law enforcement agency and not the other one...!

We have to wait for today's events if this new battle of attrition will take long for the protesters to leave and the leaders to give in. A violent crackdown is unlikely at this moment, but don't tell that to the hardliners and stranger things have already happened.

Further reading:

• Bangkok Pundit: Odds and ends from Thailand
• Absolutely Bangkok: A real ultimatum, really?
• New York Times: Thai Protesters Refuse to Disband, Putting Deal in Peril

Red Shirts Still Not Quite Ready To Disperse Yet...

One week after prime minister Abhisit has offered his roadmap to reconciliation and days of back-door discussions, counter-demands and also opposition by the yellow shirts, the red shirt leaders have concluded their discussions amongst themselves and went on stage to say that they accept the November 14 election date, but have set up their own five-point plan, without outlining them all but they have announced a few key points like...

The red-shirts accepted PM Abhisit Vejjajiva's offer of 14 November polls but said they would not go home until the deputy PM surrendered to police. They say Suthep Thaungsuban must answer for the deaths of protesters in a 10 April clash.

Mr Abhisit had given the red-shirts a Monday deadline to respond to his plan. (...)

At a news conference, the red-shirts said they broadly accepted the timeframe laid down in the road-map. But they said that they wanted to ensure there were no double standards in the repercussions before agreeing to close down their protests.

They said many of their members had been accused of terrorism or been subject to arrest warrants, so Mr Abhisit and Mr Suthep should be subject to the same scrutiny. Mr Abhisit has parliamentary immunity but Mr Suthep should surrender to police to face accusations of murder, they said.

Mr Suthep was in charge of security operations on 10 April, when 25 people were killed in a failed attempt to disperse protesters. His role was subsequently given to army chief Gen Anupong Paojinda.

"If Suthep refuses to surrender himself to police, we refuse to end the rally," red-shirt leader Nattawut Saikua told reporters. "If Suthep surrenders to police, then we will go home."

A government spokesman says the deputy prime minister will meet the head of special investigations on Tuesday to hear the accusations levelled against him.

But the BBC's South East Asia correspondent, Rachel Harvey, says it is not clear whether or not this is in response to the protesters' demands or part of a complex deal that has been rumoured to be in the offing for days.

"Thailand red-shirts set out new conditions", BBC News, May 10, 2010

Fact is, Suthep will go and meet the head of the Department of Special Investigation (DSI), and probably not 'surrender' himself to them as The Nation calls it. There is doubt if this will be enough for the red shirts to see this condition fulfilled, but later that evening it was clear that it was not.

เมื่อ เวลา 22.00 น. (...) นายจตุพร พรหมพันธุ์ แกนนำ นปช. ปราศรัยว่า กรณีนายสุเทพจะไปพบอธิบดีดีเอสไอวันที่ 11 พฤษภาคม ถือเป็นการหลอกต้มคนเสื้อแดงทั่วประเทศ เนื่องจากคดีสั่งฆ่าประชาชนนั้น ยังไม่มีการรับเป็นคดีพิเศษ การไปของนายสุเทพจึงเป็นการไปนั่งกินกาแฟกับนายธาริตมากกว่า นายสุเทพต้องไปมอบตัวต่อตำรวจกองปราบปรามสถานเดียว

At 10 PM (...) red shirt leader Jatuporn Phromphan said on stage that "[if] Suthep will meet the director of the DSI on May 11th, it will be a lie to all red shirts in the country," since the case of the order to kill citizens [on April 10th] has not been made to a special case yet. "This meeting between Suthep and Tharit will probably be just a coffee party. Suthep has to hand himself to the Police's Crime Suppression Division."

"นปช.ยึกยักเลิกชุมนุม ลั่น"เทพเทือก"ต้องมอบตัวตร.สถานเดียว จวกไปดีเอสไอหลอกลวงแดงทั้งแผ่นดิน", Matichon, May 10, 2010

Just to give some context, the Department of Special Investigation is a branch of the Ministry of Justice, whereas the Crime Suppression Division is a branch of the Crime Investigation Bureau of the Royal Thai Police. Whether the DSI's investigation will lead to anywhere even close to an indictment is to be doubted. The problem is also that the DSI has more or less taken over the case against the PM and Suthep and has additionally accepted a formal complaint from a Puea Thai Party spokesperson, who represents some relatives of the victims killed during the April 10 clashes. Thus, the red shirts leaders are more or less demanding the case against Suthep to be handed back to the police's Crime Suppression Division.

One other central demand of the red leaders is that the government should put their TV channel PTV back on air, after it has been yanked off the air several times.

One of the five points in Abhisit's road map is media reform. The red shirts have agreed to join the scheme but demand the same treatment as rival ASTV, the main mouthpiece for the rival yellow-shirt People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD). "It's good to have an independent body that takes care of media content, in order to prevent provocations and champion reconciliation," Natthawut said. "PTV is prepared to follow the body's instructions if ASTV does."

"Ball back in reds' court", The Nation, May 11, 2010

Prior to the announcement there were rumors spread by Khattiya Sawasdipol, a pro-red Major General widely known as 'Seh Daeng' (more on him in a future blog post), that the red shirt leaders have been sacked by former prime minister and alleged puppet master of the red shirts Thaksin Shinawatra and replaced by new ones. But this was, of course, denied very quickly.

Nothing Clear On The 'Roadmap to Reconciliation' Yet, Reds Still To Stay

After a day of relative political silence due to coronation day and thus a public holiday on Wednesday, the battle of words broke out again on Thursday as the red shirts as well as the PAD (the yellow shirts) have voiced their doubts or rejection of Abhisit's 'roadmap to reconciliation' offer. Whilethe prime minister was able to get support by his own Democrat Party and also the coalition partners, even the opposition Puea Thai Party, this week, the biggest opponent of the 'roadmap' were of all groups were those that have paved his way to power in the first place. In a press conference, the so-called People's Alliance for Democracy (the yellow shirts) have heavily condemned Abhisit for giving the red shirts "a shameful deal which will spawn the growth of terrorist and anti-monarchy activities nationwide," and he should either stop it or else resign. Even a meeting between Abhisit and PAD representatives hours after these statements has not resolved any doubt.

Prime Minister Abhisit promised the PAD not to grant amnesty to any persons or join hands with the opposition Pheu Thai Party to form a new government after an election, said PAD spokesman Panthep Puapongpan.

The PAD has its own New Politics Party (NPP) but Panthep said they did not discuss party matters with the prime minister (...)

Abhisit explained he would not dissolve Parliament for a new election (...) [and] would not amend the constitution for the benefit of politicians or his own Democrat Party, Panthep said.

Both sides did not reach common ground yesterday because they did not negotiate adjusting their stance but just simply exchanged views, said PAD leader Pipop Thongchai.

(...) Abhisit said after the meeting he needed to clear the way with all concerned parties on the implementation of the road map. He would meet Dr Tul Sittisomwong, leader of multicoloured group today, to exchange views as the group remained in disagreement with the plan to dissolve the Parliament.

"Roadmap still in balance", The Nation, May 7, 2010

As if they were still not impressed, the PAD emphasized again after the meeting with Abhisit that "snap poll might cause a vacuum of power, causing  the civil servants to neglect to prosecute the terrorist suspects and the anti-monarchists" and that the time frame until November is an "insufficient time to restore normalcy ahead of the fresh election." (Source) And as if they did not make themselves clear enough, the PAD has called for martial law to be invoked, so that the army can 'finally' clean up.

Meanwhile in the red camp, the leaders of the UDD are still waiting for more concessions from the government, or "more sincerity" in their words, despite a qualified nod to the 'roadmap'. The main point is when the red shirt protesters are (finally) packing their bags and are going home. The Democrats and Abhisit insist that the reds do that before anything happens, but on Thursday red leader Nattawut was still in a defiant mood.

Red Shirt Co-leader Nuttawut Saikua said Thursday the red shirts would still continue their occupation at the Rajprasong intersection unless Prime Minister Abisit Vejjajiva comes up with a final solution from all parties about the reconciliation. (...)

"Now that the PAD wants to the Prime Minister to step down from his post, we are confused as they have the agenda like ours. So PM should clear with the PAD first and also seek approvals from the coalition parties about the reconciliation first. When all matters are cleared, PM can bring the final solution to us. As for now, we will continue to stay here,'' said Nuttawut.

"Red shirts will continue to rally: Nuttawut", The Nation, May 6, 2010

On Friday things looked a bit different as there was another meeting of the red leaders. One of the them, Kwanchai Praipana, jumped the gun and hinted that Monday would be the last day of the protests. However...

The United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship on Friday reaffirmed its intention to join Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's road map for reconciliation but stopped short of saying when to end the rally.

Speaking after more than two hours of meeting of core members, Nathawut Saikua said the UDD was firm on its intention to take part in a reconciliation plan initiated either by the government or any other organisations which adhere to seeking a peaceful resolution to the political conflict. However, he said the meeting had not reached a decision when to end the rally, which started from Mar 12.

UDD leaders would on Saturday hold another meeting to mete out its conditions for further talks with the government. The UDD would consider when to end the rally if the government responded positively to the conditions yet to be made and ensure safety for the protesters, Mr Nathawut said. He called for the Centre for the Resolution of the Emergency Situation (CRES) to stop intimidating the protesters.

"UDD says it will join reconciliation road map", Bangkok Post, May 7, 2010

Natthawut said the red shirts would today [Saturday] propose to the government their own version of the road map. One of the conditions is the government lift the emergency law. "If the government agrees, the protest will be over, and we'll walk together [towards reconciliation]," Natthawut said yesterday. Responding to the red-shirt condition, Prime Minister Abhisit said he would not end enforcement of the emergency law until the situation eased and the red-shirt protest was over.

"Road map gets red boost", The Nation, May 8, 2010

One of the other key points of the statement Friday evening is the emphasis that they do not seek amnesty from terrorist and lèse majesté charges. The Department of Special Investigation is on the case and have already charged nine of the red shirt leaders.

If they turn themselves in on May 15 as promised, all nine leaders of the Democratic Alliance against Dictatorship will be immediately charged with terrorism and other crimes, the Department of Special Investigation (DSI) said yesterday. Director general Tharit Phengdit said the nine leaders could be released temporarily on bail or face "confidential measures" prepared by the DSI if they failed to surrender on the date earmarked.

The DAAD [or UDD] leaders' alleged crimes are divided into four categories: terrorism, intimidating officials, assaulting state officials and the public, as well as possessing war weapons. The DSI is only relying on the arrest warrants issued under the Emergency Decree, he added. (...)

"Their charges will only be revoked if they are given lawful amnesty as agreed upon by the government and the Parliament," Tharit said. "The amnesty must stipulate specifically what crimes they will be pardoned for and which crimes would need to be further processed."

Tharit said he was leading a separate DSI investigation into anti-monarchy issues and the probe would begin next week.

"DSI waiting for red-shirt leaders to surrender", The Nation, May 7, 2010

And that is, unusual for Thai crime fighting authorities, the last statement of the DSI we are going to hear from them on this case for some time.

Red Shirt Leaders Accept PM's Offer, But...

Unsurprisingly, the red shirts have accepted Abhisit's offer that will eventually lead to new elections on November 14, but not without a list of their demands to be fulfilled before anything happens.

The United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) has resolved to join Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's roadmap for reconciliation, Veera Musikhapong said after a meeting of UDD leaders on Tuesday evening.

Mr Veera, the UDD chairman, said all red-shirt leaders made the resolution unanimously because the UDD had long proposed for it. Moreover, the UDD did not want to see more deaths and injuries as a result of the political conflict.

However, the UDD, in entering the reconciliation process, wanted the prime minister to set the timeframe for House dissolution because it is within his power to do so and leave it to the Election Commission to fix the election date.

Moreover, the government must immediately show its sincerity by ending all forms of intimidation against the red shirts, he said.

"UDD accepts PM's reconciliation roadmap", Bangkok Post, May 4, 2010

Other demands include...

(...)

- Red-shirt leaders do not need an amnesty for terrorism and lese majeste charges.

- The government must stop dragging the monarchy into political conflicts.

- The Department of Special Investigation (DSI) must take over all cases involving incidents on April 10, 22 and 28.

(...)

- The government should return basic rights to the citizens such as the freedom of movement, expression and the right to know. (...)

- The DSI should also charge the yellow-shirt group, which had earlier closed Bangkok airports, on counts of terrorism and lese majeste.

- The red-shirt protesters reserve the right to continue their rally in the heart of the capital until Abhisit announces the date for House dissolution.

- The government should reopen all red-shirt media outlets and give the movement freedom of communication.

"Acceptable if...", The Nation, May 5, 2010

They have a fair point that the prime minister can not simply set the date for new elections as he has to dissolve parliament first. Also, as mentioned yesterday, section 108 of the constitution says:

Section 108. (...) The dissolution of the House of Representatives shall be made in the form of a Royal Decree in which the day for a new general election must be fixed for not less than forty-five days but not more than sixty days as from the day the House of Representatives has been dissolved and such election day must be the same throughout the Kingdom. (...)

Constitution of the Kingdom of Thailand 2007, Unofficial translation

Assuming that November 14 is supposed to be election day, parliament must be dissolved between September 15 until October 1.

The only eye-catching thing for me was the refusal for an amnesty for the red shirt leaders on terrorist and lease-majesté charges. But on the other hand, the yellow shirts probably would protest heavily if their opponents would get a free pass (like the PAD themselves, as the court case against their leaders for seizing the two airports in 2008 has been countlessly postponed until today).

What's next? We are now, if we do not have yet another sudden twist, entering the definite last phase of these anti-government protests now. One issue that was missing from the red shirts answer last night was when the protesters will leave and give up the Rajaprasong rally site they have been occupying for a month now. Obviously the red leaders wanted more concrete concessions by the government before anyone goes home. It will only be a matter of time when they will disperse and by the looks of it, it will be very soon.

As for Abhisit, the ball is back on his court and it's not only up to him how this will fold out, but also his Democrat Party and the coalition partners. One might wonder why Abhisit has not talked with them before the offer? On Tuesday morning, all people (except for deputy prime minister Suthep and a few Democrat MPs) on his side were stumped, including his mentor and former prime minister Chuan Leekpai who was "not aware" of the PM's plans and opposes them, saying that he shouldn't give in to the red shirts demands and that there are other ways to the solution. Abhisit has now a lot convincing to do during the meetings with his own party and the coalition parties, that at least have partly shown their support for the roadmap (or at least the idea of it).

Also one thing that we will see appearing is who will claim victory. The red shirts will because the government has caved in to the protesters and has partly fulfilled some demands, the government will because a political solution was found with no further bloodshed. Either way, like Abhisit said "not all parties will be satisfied with this proposal," as the (surprise, surprise!) the yellow shirts have already voiced their displeasure.

Further reading:

• Bangkok Post: Reds call for clarity on dissolution date (w/ a possible timeline until Nov 14)
• The Nation: Reds 'welcome' offer (analysis Tulsathit Taptim)
• The Irrawaddy: Sunlight Creeping Through the Bangkok Gloom? (includes quotes by political analysts Frederico Ferrara and Thitinan Pongsudhirak)

Abhisit Offers 'Roadmap' to New Elections on November 14

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P312tO6kYg0&w=600&h=360]Abhisit's announcement of the “reconciliation plan” (video via YouTube, watch part 2 here) Prime minister Abhisit Veijajiva appeared on television on Monday evening to announce a 'road map' to reconciliation leading to new elections on November 14 in attempt to end the anti-government protests. But before this happen five points have to be agreed on by all parties:

1) All parties concerned must join forces to uphold the monarchy.

2) The government will carry out national reform to do away with injustice in the economic and political structures. As part of the process, the government will provide good social welfare, education, health etc, as well as other things to people suffering from other plights.

3) The government will ensure that the media will function as a constructive tool.

4) The government will set up an independent committee to investigate the deaths and injuries in clashes between troops, police and protesters on April 10, at Silom and on Vibhavadi Road.

5) The government will take actions to study the public feelings of injustice regarding to political system, especially after what happened over last few years, and try to solve the problems.

"PM announces next election will be held on Nov 14", The Nation, May 3, 2010

That all sounds pretty and good, but it has to be seen if the roadmap points can be fully realized (especially point number 3 and 4 makes me doubt).

We have come from a long way from the red shirts' original demand to dissolve house right away, to within two weeks, to within a month and lastly to 3+2 months (in Thai), whereas the government has originally offered new elections at the end of the year. With the newest offer by Abhisit, both parties are now just 1 month apart.

But the new date for the elections still takes places after the annual passage of the budget and the military reshuffle that usually takes place in September. These two points might be the stumbling block that the red shirts will refuse as the current government can make last adjustments before the polls. By the way, according to the constitution, new elections have to take pace 60 days after dissolution of parliament. So if November 14 is the planned election day, the House has to be dissolved on September 15 at the latest.

The red shirt leaders have not agreed on this yet as they, of course, have to discuss about it. The reactions from some leaders so far are...

One protest leader, Suporn Attawong, called Mr. Abhisit’s proposal "great because all of this will come to an end. Everyone will be able to return home and go back to work,".

"Thai Premier Offers Deal to Protesters", New York Times, May 3, 2010

Protest leader Jatuporn Prompan said they would seriously consider the reconciliation plan. "We will talk about it and discuss his proposal seriously and decide what our position is. We cannot just reject or accept it immediately," he told Reuters news agency.

"Thai PM offers November election to end stand-off", BBC News, May 3, 2010

The ball is now in the red shirts' court, they have to decide if they accept the compromise or reject and thus make the deadlock even worse. Because the military has also made its move today and were readying some armored humvees. Either way, the red shirts protests are entering the last phase as they themselves can end it or else the army will.

Further reading:

• Bangkok Pundit: Abhisit offers November 14 election (more details)
• Bangkok Post: PM proposes Nov 14 poll date
• New York Times: Thai Premier Offers Deal to Protesters
• BBC News: Thai PM offers November election to end stand-off
• The Nation: Last chance for peace (op-ed by Tulsathit Taptim)