The Unbelievable Rise of Col. Sansern's Popularity
Col. Sansern Kaewkamnerd at work (Screenshot from CRES announcement, May 16)
Let's make this short: there are many things that I cannot simply understand! This is one of them.
For some incomprehensible reason Col. Sansern Kaewkamnerd, military spokesperson and as seen on dozens of CRES TV announcements during the red shirt riots in earlier this year, has become a darling of the local Thai media.
It all begun late last month when The Nation ran a series of high-praising articles of him including this journalistic gem:
He's been on primetime television every other day recently. He's that guy in uniform who catches every woman's eye. He makes viewers giggle despite the tension, and has a smile to melt the coldest heart. With his winning personality, he has to be a strong contender for Man of the Year award. (...)
However, since the red-shirt protests began in March, he has become a favourite across the whole country - and many women's secret crush. Right now, he's even beating big-screen heartthrob Theeradej "Ken" Wongpuapan in the popularity stakes.
As one of his avid supporters, I've joined every fan club for Sansern on Facebook, watched every video clip of him posted on YouTube and even looked up his profile through Google. And yes, when I met him, I was star-struck! The chance to meet my hero came when a senior reporter I am shadowing at The Nation said she was going to interview the colonel. I begged to tag along.
"Saluting the kingdom's coolest colonel", The Nation, May 30, 2010
Why are you so admired for your role as CRES spokesman? / You got higher votes than popular actor Ken Thiradej in a recent poll. Why could that be? / Has Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva persuaded you to enter politics? / Has your wife teased you about your fan club? / Given the fan club and the popularity you have as CRES spokesman, do you think your job is successful? / What makes you good-humoured?
Taken from: "Staying cool under fire", by Budsarakham Sinlapalavan & Nathapat Promkaew, The Nation, June 28, 2010
To top it off there is this exclusive video showing the contents of his bag. Notice the lady reporters reaction when he pulls something specific out...
But that is still not the end of his media tour de force. In the last days and weeks, Col. Sansern did appears on not one, not two, but three frigging high-gloss magazine covers (or cover stories)!
Seriously ladies, what is it with this guy and the sudden popularity? Is it because he appeared more often on TV than Abhisit did in recent times? This is one of the stories that truly deserve the "WTF?!"-tag...
Burmese Arrested Among Redshirts
Thirteen Burmese migrant workers are among the hundreds of anti-government Redshirt protesters currently being held by the Thai authorities, according to a Burmese advocacy group in Thailand. The group, the Thai Action Committee for Democracy in Burma (TACDB), confirmed that 13 of the 422 detained Redshirt protesters identified by the Thai government earlier this week are Burmese nationals.
The Burmese detainees, all of whom are men, remain in police custody. Ten are being held at a police station in Pathum Thani Province, two others are in another province and the remaining one is in a special detention center, according to TACDB.
“We don't know if they were arrested during the protests or because they violated the recent nighttime curfew,” said Myint Wai, an official from TACDB, adding that his group is now trying to provide legal counsel to the detained Burmese. (...)
"Burmese Among Redshirt Detainees", The Irrawaddy, June 12, 2010
Govt Survives Vote of Confidence But Coalition Partners At Each Other's Throat
246 - 186 - 11 for PM Abhisit Veijajiva, 245 - 187 - 11 for Deputy PM Suthep Thaugsuban, 244 - 187 - 12 for Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij and 239 - 190 - 15 for Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya. These are the bold numbers that show the government has survived yet another battle as politics came back to parliament earlier this week as it faced a vote of no confidence regarding the military crackdown on the anti-government red shirt protesters on May 19 and unsurprisingly, there was a lot of bad blood boiling before the vote.
From the time the debate opened on Monday morning until its close on Tuesday, bitter and heated exchanges have highlighted the depth of animosity and distrust between those aligned to the anti-government Redshirts, on the one hand, and the Democrat party-led government, on the other.
While the words exchanged were blunt, giving the debate an air of transparency and frankness, they were not necessarily truthful or accurate. But then such is the way in almost any parliament in the world. The difference is that this debate took place after unprecedented violence on the streets of Bangkok.
And while heated discussion of a variety of incendiary and controversial issues is part and parcel of what parliamentary debate is about in a healthy democracy, it remains to be seen whether the acrimonious debate smoothes the way for Abhisit's reconciliation plan. (...)
Peua Thai MP and Redshirt leader Jatuporn Promphan accused the government of trying to hide the truth about the recent clashes, while the government in turn accused the protestors of harming their own people to discredit the government and security forces. Focusing on Deputy Prime Minister Suthep, Jatuporn said that the government “accuses us of paying people to die.” He added that, “If I can hire someone, I would pay for Suthep to die.” (...)
Puea Thai Party Chairman Chalerm Yoobamrung questioned a number of government ministers, including the prime minister. His interrogation included a grilling of Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya, whom he accused of “wretched and vile comments” about the Thai monarchy in a speech that Kasit gave at Johns Hopkins University in April.
"Mantras, Misperceptions and Mutual Acrimony in Thai MP Debate", The Irrawaddy, June 2, 2010
The last paragraph is referring to Kasit's (unusually for him) level-headed remarks about the Thai monarchy during a long (usual) rant about Thaksin and countries that are allegedly helping him.
The parliamentary debate went on for hours, partly had to be stopped at 2 AM in the morning with the MPs still at each other's throat (if anyone was still watching the complete live broadcast on TV). I was only (physically and mentally) able to occasionally drop in out onto the house sessions for some minutes at a time. But from what I heard during the debates, the rhetoric on both sides (during the times I switched to) was at least as fierce as it was during the protests from the red shirt stage - aggressive, rude and at times borderline ugly. The politicians did nothing to win back the trust of the people into the political institutions. The much promotoed "reconciliation" of Abhisit is nowhere to be seen.
While it appeared before the vote that the opposition Puea Thai Party has some problems keeping their MPs in line, another battle line was drawn inside the coalition as Bhumjaithai Party's Interior Minister Chavarat Charnvirakul and Transport Minister Sohpon Zraum have failed to get the minimum 238 votes to survive the no confidence vote (236 and 234 respectively). All eyes were on the Pheua Phaendin Party, whose MPs were allowed to freely vote for or against the ministers and apparently 10 of them did vote against Chavarat and Sohpon. The aftermath is now is ugly:
Bhumjaithai lashed out at Puea Pandin following the no-confidence debate yesterday accusing it of "back-stabbing" and demanding that it leave the coalition.
Puea Pandin MPs either cast votes of no confidence or abstained from voting yesterday for Interior Minister Chavarat Charnvirakul, the Bhumjaithai leader, and Transport Minister Sohpon Zarum.
Newin Chidchob, Bhumjaithai's de facto leader, was particularly upset by the perceived slight. A government source said the party powerbroker told Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and Deputy Premier Suthep Thaugsuban, the government manager, that Puea Pandin's actions were unacceptable.
The row between the two partners has simmered for some time with Bhumjaithai said to have the upper hand.
The parties have locked horns over local development budget allocations and the annual transfer of state officials.
There is also an unsettled score involving political wrangling in the lower Northeast between Boonjong Wongtrairat and Mr Newin of Bhumjaithai, and Pinij Charusombat and Pairote Suwunchwee of Puea Pandin.
Mr Newin is also believed to hold a personal grudge against Kasem Rungthanakiat, who turned to Mr Pairote's party instead of joining Bhumjaithai when the People Power Party was dissolved. Mr Kasem's move to Puea Pandin quashed Mr Newin's hopes of consolidating his political stronghold in the lower Northeast.
"Coalition rivals face off", Bangkok Post, June 3, 2010
Worse, Bhumjaithai is now demanding the Phuea Phaendin Party to be thrown out of the coalition. As of now, the Democrat Party was considering to reshuffle the cabinet:
The Puea Pandin Party is expected to be removed from the government coalition in a coming cabinet reshuffle, a highly-placed source in the government says. Democrat secretary-general Suthep Thaugsuban has bowed to the demand of Bhumjaithai Party de facto leader Newin Chidchob to remove Puea Pandin from the coalition.
The source yesterday said Mr Suthep had agreed to Mr Newin's plan after hearing how he could make up for the reduced number of coalition MPs in parliament without Puea Pandin. The coalition government would be left with 22 fewer votes of support through the departure of Puea Pandin.
Puea Pandin has 32 MPs, but 10 come under the influence of Pol Gen Pracha Promnok and they did not support the administration in the first place. The source said Mr Newin had given assurances to Mr Suthep that he could find adequate support to stabilise the coalition alliance following Puea Pandin's departure.
Mr Newin's plan calls for the coalition to keep at least 11 votes: five from the Ban Rim Nam faction of Puea Pandin which supports the government and six from the Matubhumi and Pracharaj parties, which are now in the opposition and each hold three seats in the lower house.
The government also might secure six or eight more seats if Puea Pandin MP for Udon Thani Chaiyos Jiramethakarn can talk his colleagues into leaving the party.
The source said Mr Newin had suggested the three groups be given a deputy ministerial post each. Mr Chaiyos's group might be given a ministerial post if more than eight seats could be secured.
"Puea Pandin On Way Out", Bangkok Post, June 4, 2010
The article goes on about the ministerial posts that could be affected by the reshuffle. In the current cabinet, there are four Phuea Phaendin posts: the Deputy Minister of Education, the Minister of Industry, the Deputy Minister of Finance and the infamous Minister for Information and Technology. The last three could fall into the hands of the Democrat Party if Phuea Phaendin is thrown out.
As for the balance of power in the parliament, the current five-party-coalition (including Democrat Party with 172 and Bhumjai, Phuea Phaendin 32 seats each) has 270 seats, while the opposition Puea Thai Party has 189 and the remaining 16 seats are split between 3 minor parties. If the 32 Phuea Phaendin MPs are thrown out, the coalition is left with 238 seats, just one more than the opposition. So the horsetrading is no surprise with attempts to convince certain Phuea Phaendin MPs, but also the smaller opposition parties to jump ship and change the sides. The decision is to take place Friday.
Even if everything turns out okay for the coalition, with Phuea Phaendin on board or not, this alliance will be even shakier than before. What also became apparent with the fallout between the second and third largest coalition parties is that there is hardly any traditional political alliances between parties as seen in many European democracies, many politicians just want to be where the sun shines the brightest and are willing to do almost anything, many of the parties had no problems to align themselves with the now disbanded Thaksin-proxy People's Power Party.
The tragedy in this whole issue is that parliament has shown its ugly side again when the censure sessions deteriorated to just a shouting-match at times. Does anybody still think about the red shirts, the deaths of the protests and the roots of the problems, that got us here in the first place?
Al Jazeera's Listening Post on Social Media During The Thai Protests
Al Jazeera's media magazine Listening Post has reported on Thailand again in it's latest episode, this time focussing on the social media aspect during the protests especially during the deadly street battles in May. Again, yours truly was asked to give my two cents on the issue again. The Global Village Voices segment begins at the 7:20 minute mark, this time alongside Florian Witulski (@vaitor on Twitter), a German journalism-student in Bangkok who spend much of the last weeks running around the streets of Bangkok and, despite the chaos, was live-tweeting from the ground (see this profile on him at CNNgo).
For some strange reason this week, we both got subtitled...
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOrLOmbQhtY&w=600&h=360]
BONUS: German media magazine ZAPP also did a short report on Twitter's role during the clashes, featuring Eric Seldin alias @thaicam of Thaicam Production Services.
What Is Conor David Purcell Up To?
Does anyone remember Conor David Purcell, the Aussie who appeared on the red shirt stage and was fighting along with the anti-government protesters? Of course you do! How else can I explain myself that my blog post on him from earlier this month is by far the most read article on this blog. It has accumulated 1,370 clicks by today and at least nearly half of them came in this week. So what happened to him that has increased the interest again? Well, the bloke's in jail!
THAI police have arrested an Australian man in Bangkok for allegedly violating an emergency decree, after a court handed him a suspended sentence for a visa infringement.
Conor David Purcell, 30, was arrested and charged for breaching emergency law, an offence which carries up to two years jail time, Thai police said.
Speaking from his cell, Mr Purcell said he was a liaison for the military because he was the only one prepared to run through the bullets, the ABC reported.
Mr Purcell, who served for seven years in the Australian army, was working in Bangkok as a language teacher.
Sources from the immigration detention centre in Bangkok said Mr Purcell was a regular speaker at recent anti-government rallies in Bangkok.
A spokesperson for Australia's Department of Foreign Affairs said the man was detained on Sunday and charged with overstaying his visa.
"Australia Conor David Purcell arrested over Thai protests", The Daily Telegraph, May 25, 2010
Purcell has been arrested alongside a Briton named Jeff Savage, who is accused to have taken part in the looting and the burning of the Central World shopping center shortly after the military crackdown on May 19, at least he was caught on tape yelling to do so.
Well, even prime minister Abhisit had something to say about these two.
"For the Australian man it's not yet clear, but in the case of the Briton he's involved with the (red shirt) movement in Pattaya," Abhisit said. He said officials would also probe other allegations against the men.
There have been reports that Purcell was a former member of the Australian army and that he received training as a sniper, however embassy sources are understood to have suggested neither claim was true. Purcell, arrested on Sunday, is now in Klong Prem prison.
Abhisit said: "Indepth investigations will be carried out to find out whether they had any other role."
"Two foreigners arrested", The Nation, May 26, 2010
Both men showed up at the court today for their first hearing and while Savage was reported to have "broken down" (source), Purcell was in a fiercely defiant mood.
Dressed in orange prison-issue shirt and shorts, barefoot and shackled in leg-irons, a furious Mr Purcell was led in to Pathumwan Municipal Court in Bangkok yesterday, protesting that he was being unlawfully held.
Visibly angry at his detention, Mr Purcell, 29, a former soldier, refused to stand when told and then yelled at the judge that he would not accept the court's right to try him. ''Nobody in this country has authority over me,'' he said.
He brushed aside a representative from the Australian embassy who was asking him to be quiet and continued his tirade, shaking and pointing at the judge. ''I'm not under Thai law. I'm only obeying international law. I'm head of the red gang,'' he yelled.
Jeff Savage, a British man also arrested for his role in the protest, sitting next to Mr Purcell in court, burst into tears.
"Australian launches tirade in Thai court", The Sydney Morning Herald, May 28, 2010
To say the least, especially with the last sentence, he's not doing himself any favor now...
State Of A National Mind - Some Personal Thoughts
"Bullet holes at my office, 5th fl. (Chidlom)", picture courtesy of @Nok_Kasama
A lot is being said about time: that it slips by fast, that it is money, that it makes you wiser, that it gives you the opportunity to reflect and also that it heals wounds. A week ago the biggest political protests the country has ever seen was dispersed by the army in a military crackdown that itself was not the disaster that shocked the nation - it was the aftermath that has left not only parts of Bangkok, but also many parts of the country in rubbles. It was the final day of a military advance that killed over 50 and injured nearly 400 people - the total body count of the protests is 85 and over 2000 respectively. It was that May 19th, 2010 that has ripped an even bigger wound.
This was different from the deadly clashes of April 10, or any other riots that happened in the capital. We witnessed an escalation of violence, bottled-up anger and disappointment and also the definite destruction of the national myth of unity and peace. Even though the national anthem says that "Thais love peace" but the next line also states that we are not afraid to fight. But what are we fighting for?
There is no doubt that a large group of the red shirt protesters have a genuine political consciousness and want a democracy, where their vote counts, where their voices and concerns are heard in Bangkok and that their lives are improved with immediate and visible effect. Like it or not, the United Front against Dictatorship for Democracy, as they are formally called, are a political movement you cannot get rid off that easy anymore. They are here to stay! But to say that this group is only made up of uneducated, poor rural workers that are easily lured in with gloomy promises is factually wrong and devalues any reasonable discussion.
The government side, at least prime minister Abhisit, attempted a soft approach to the protesters and even when the red shirts seized the important commercial part of Bangkok, he remained relatively mild-tempered. The fact that it dragged on for nearly two months is partly because he, and probably many people in Bangkok as well, have underestimated the red protesters‘ stamina and defiance.
But, as in any conflict, the radical voices are the loudest and over the course of the protests the moderate and reasonable were being pushed aside. This was evident when Abhisit offered the red shirt leaders a so-called 'roadmap to reconciliation' that included new elections by November. It came at a time when the red shirts suffered a massive public fallout after a militant wing of the movement stormed through the nearby Chulalongkorn Hospital in search of any hidden soldiers. It was the last chance for a peaceful solution and to walk away without losing face. But any hopes were dashed when the UDD leaders failed to agree and added more and more counter-demands. This was the moment were the moderates on all sides have lost. What happened next was the beginning of the end.
Even if the protesters are now dispersed, the streets of Bangkok are clear again and many people are relieved, unfortunately though, the worst isn‘t over - the mess has just begun! What can happen now is a radicalization of all fractions. People do not want to trust each other even more, the prejudice one had of the other is now more solidified. The divide between Bangkok and the rest of the country will grow and as the mob attacks in the provinces have shown, conflicts and clashes will not take place in the capital exclusively. If we are not careful things will get uglier.
A taste of what‘s to come can be found online already in the past week where a large part of Thai netizens display their loyalty to the status quo and at the same time fiercely attack everyone who dares to criticize it or even have a different opinion. Especially CNN has come under fire for their alleged biased reporting during the protests, starting with an open letter. And even though this has already been proven to be factually wrong in many parts, people still praise this letter without any question. This single case shows that many people are less willing to hear from voices from outside and that are different to their‘s, they are immune to criticism. This marginalization of opinion diversity can only lead to isolation.
And here‘s in my opinion one of the main problems that lead to this tragedy: How can there by in any way be a reconciliation of all, if the majority refuses to listen what others have to say? How will there be harmony without understanding the issues in order to resolve them? And how will there be unity if every single Thai does not start to look at each other face-to-face on equal terms?
It is not a national tragedy just because many Bangkok residents have a few places less to make a shopping therapy. It is a national tragedy because people have been killed, damage has been done not by an foreign threat, but by Thais themselves. It is a national tragedy because never before it was shown that bluntly that the institutions and their participants, that are essential in a democratic system, are ineffective to solve problems.
Now that the government has issued an arrest warrant against Thaksin for terrorism charges, they have intensified a seemingly obsessive witch hunt that has blinded parts of the nation (including the newspaper of the same name) for years now. What many slowly seem to realize now is that even though it may have started with Thaksin, who is despite several human rights violations and cronyism according to some is unfortunately already the best what Thai democracy had to offer, this is now way beyond him now. This is a result of a collective failure that became evident during the Thaksin years and even more evident since the 2006 coup.
What I hope for this country is that the people will not try to put a blanket over the ever-increasing rift and blindly preach peace, love and unity until the next escalation. I hope that everybody will sincerely think for a moment why we got to this point and does not forget this at the next best diversion. This national wound takes more than time to heal. What it needs is a reconsideration of everything, our way of life, the definition of "Thai-ness", the way we teach our children how to think independently and openly voice their opinion, the perception of a good government, a fair and balanced media. In general, a mature democratic society where a reasonable debate can take place in order to solve the social problems of the nation.
I have my doubts though that it will happen anytime soon...
In Case Against The Open Letter Against CNN
An open letter against CNN's coverage of the deadly clashes as posted on Facebook. Excerpt:
As a first-rate global news agency, CNN has an inherent professional duty to deliver all sides of the truth to the global public (...) not merely one-sided, shallow and sensational half-truths. (...) CNN should not negligently discard its duty of care to the international populace by reporting single-sided or unverified facts and distorted truths drawn from superficial research, or display/distribute biased images which capture only one side of the actual event.Mr. Rivers and Ms. Snider have NOT done their best under these life-threatening circumstances because many other foreign correspondents have done better. All of Mr. Rivers and Ms. Sniders' quotes and statements seem to have been solely taken from the anti-government protest leaders or their followers/sympathizers. Yet, all details about the government’s position have come from secondary resources. No direct interviews with government officials have been shown; no interviews or witness statements from ordinary Bangkok residents or civilians unaffiliated with the protesters, particularly those who have been harassed by or suffered at the hands of the protesters, have been circulated.
"Open Letter to CNN International" by Napas Na Pombejra, May 17, 2010
Bangkok Pundit has dissected the open letter sentence by sentence and asked the question "Is CNN's coverage really biased?". (SPOILER ALERT: The answer is NO!)
But that still does not stop many people from unquestioningly praising that letter (see the comments in BP's blog post and also the links below), especially The Nation seem to really love this letter and run with it, like the publisher Suthichai Yoon tweeting it and even reprinting it in Wednesday's paper edition...
Further reading:
- Somtow's World: Don't Blame Dan Rivers
- CNN: Life inside the Thai live fire zone (YouTube video of Dan Rivers describing his current work situation, also mentions that letter)
- Justin Alick: Open Letter to Foreign Journos (It's satire for those not seeing it!)
Videos: Anger in Ubon Ratchathani
The Thai Report, a blog similar styled to The Drudge Report, has posted some video footage from Ubon Ratchathani in the Isan region, a stronghold of the red shirts. The first video is from Friday and shows a rally stage who were, apart from the usual singing and dancing and debating, mourning one killed man from Ubon, Inn-Plaeng Theswong (อินแปลง เทศวงศ์), a 32-year-old taxi driver. His name also appears on this official list of killed victims so far (PDF).
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cjZmNOWpOeQ&w=600&h=360]
The second video is from Sunday and shows a large group of red shirts protesters setting fire barricades in front of the 2nd Air Division/21st Wing Air Combat Command Air Force Base. Also, see this photo gallery.
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rl2R7pInbSg&w=600&h=360]
Shortly after that, the CRES has declared a state of emergency in five more provinces, Ubon Ratchathani is one of them.
The last video shows that the red shirts have gathered at the same stage as Friday again, this time to watch the speeches from the main rally stage in Bangkok and also watch some foreign news clips as well. Even though the state of emergency has been declared in this city, they were still setting up burning barricades and as the blogger, who posted the video, states "saw only one policeman and he was watching the videos in the red shirt media tent."
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fy943TA-c7c&w=600&h=360]
Even though this may not be representative for other provinces in Thailand, but these incidents show that news from the capital are spreading very fast these days and the more people are killed, the more the anger in the rural areas grows. The red leaders have been repeatedly urging the red shirts in the provinces to rally at the city halls and, in case the Bangkok siege is forcefully cracked down, to storm them. These pictures also suggest the growing divide between Bangkok and the rest of the country that will grow with each day the crisis goes on and even if the current protest will come to an end (in what form whatsoever), the conflict for potential in rural Thailand grows and the situation can get volatile in the run-up to the next election (whenever that will take place...).
Roundup: The Crackdown, Day 3 - Six Dead, 31 Wounded
Note: This post highlights everything what happened after I had to sign off from the live blog earlier today. Another day of deadly clashes send central Bangkok deeper and deeper into a spiral of violence and already too far away for any peaceful solution of this conflict. Official figures report six have been killed today, 31 injured. None of them are soldiers.
After the CRES has gone on air two times today, prime minister Abhisit was seen publicly for the first time in many days when he made a TV address Saturday evening.
"We regret that the campaign has claimed lives of people. However it is the only choice we could do to deal with the situation," he said in a special TV-pool programme," he said. He ensured that the campaign will do the best to keep the loss minimal.
He said the reds have held hostage the country and the government , therefore, the government has no choice but to suppress them. He insisted that the government had tried every means to handle the chaos in the country which is caused by "the terrorists".
"The only way to end the loss of lives is that the protest ends immediately. The protest has been organised for the benefits of just small groups of people," the premier said. He called for people not to participate in the cycle that created chaos in the country. (...)
He also called for the public to screen information about the situation, particularly that from the reds side, because they could claim anything without giving evidence and proof.
"PM regret loss of lives", The Nation, May 15, 2010
It was important for Abhisit to show up as questions about his presence were looming and also to show that he's (at least appears) in power and has not been sidelined by the military. Abhisit more or less admits that diplomatic means to end the protests have failed and that this is the only way to end this protest.
Many video footages of today's clashes from international media, like this one from the BBC, were made on Rama IV Road, South of the rally site, but similar scenes happened elsewhere in Bangkok:
There were many reports on the streets that snipers were firing at protesters. Some of the protesters were setting barricades of tires on fire, sending up tall plumes of smoke apparently in an effort to keep out troops, who have been setting up a cordon around the protest area.
"Thai Government Takes Harder Stance as Clashes Continue", by Seth Mydans and Thomas Fuller, New York Times, May 15, 2010
This video shows a military sniper from building shooting at protesters.
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sAc_iecUgkw&w=600&h=360]
Also, CNN correspondent Dan Rivers has footage (starting at 2:40 minutes) from the same spot and also reports that the video "clearly shows that the army is shooting at people".
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=btp-wUvNXuM&=600&h=360]
As I'm writing this another day beings in Bangkok and there'll be likely violent clashes and casualties again. Both fractions will stay their course and try to chase the other side away. The situation has become increasingly life-threatening for third parties such as ambulance workers and members of the media. At the rally site itself the first effects of the blockade have appeared in form of food shortages, but the speakers on the stage cheer the supporters to carry on.
Further reading:
- Jodi Ettenberg (Legal Nomads): More Deadly Clashes in Central Bangkok (Eyewitness account from local blogger and media roundup)
- Patrick Winn (Global Post): Counting Bodies, One Click at at Time (The role of social media during this crisis)
- Thomas Fuller (New York Times): The Fury Outside My Window (Eyewitness account)
- Nirmal Ghosh (Straits Times): Thailand: The Land of Snarls (A battle of words among red and yellow supporters)
- Greg to Differ: The Role of Twitter in the Bangkok Protests
CRES Botches Up 'Measures' Against Protesters, Govt Scraps Nov 14 Election Date
The short version of Wednesday's events:
Thai army spokesman says postponing measure to cut off supplies to protestersTweet by Reuters Breaking News (@REUTERSFLASH)
Thai Govt withraws election offer. Reds refuse to move, nothing now left to lose. Back to Square 1, Take 100.
Tweet by Aela Callan (@aelacallan), Al Jazeera English
The long version of Wednesday's events:
After the ultimatum given out by the prime minister yesterday to cut off water and electricity in the rally area there was some anticipation on what was going to happen on Wednesday night. Residents living near the rally site were already looking for a place to stay somewhere else. But then nothing happened!
The Centre for the Resolution of the Emergency Situation (CRES) on Wednesday night decided to postpone cutting off water and power supplies to the Ratchaprasong area for fear of causing hardships to residents in the area.
CRES spokesman Col Sansern Kaewkamnard said authorities has to carefully consider the matter because there are a lot of important installations in the area such as embassies, schools and hospitals.
"CRES postpones cutting off water, power supplies to Ratchaprasong", Bangkok Post, May 12, 2010
Looking at the map of the area (by Richard Barrow) you can see that there are many important building like the British Embassy and the Police General Hospital. And after the Chula Hospital fiasco certainly it would be bad press to have another hospital being disrupted - at least they must have been noticed before and plans for relocation of the patients must have been made already, but none of that happened.
It seemed that this measures would have done more harm to the residents in that area than it does on the protesters.
"Firstly, we are using our own electricity generators, so we are not dependent on the public power source," said one, Jatuporn Prompan. "Secondly, if the government decides to cut water ... this will also affect half of the city. So we do not care about the government's threat."
"Thai gov't to cut water, power to protesters", Associated Press, May 12, 2010
Weren't they thinking of that before? How bad is their intelligence? All in all I seriously ask whose knee-jerk reaction it initially was? Was it Abhisit who made his first own ultimatum to the red shirt leaders and thus caught the army off-guard? Or was it the CRES' idea but did not think that through and actually talked to the public utility companies? Either way, they made themselves look foolish and gave the red shirts a small victory.
Meanwhile, the government made clear again that they are fed up with red shirts answer (or the lack of it) to the 'reconciliation roadmap' by calling off the proposed November 14 election date. While the deal itself is not yet off the table the proposed timeframe of dissolving parliament in September and then to call snap polls for November 14 is now dead. Abhisit has earlier mentioned that he would carry on with his 'roadmap' but then apparently without the consensus of the red shirts.
In other news, the red leaders have denied ongoing persistent rumors of a split in the leadership of the movement as it was reported that one of them, Veera Musikapong, has quit (on his own or not) from the red shirts. Veera has not been seen for several days on stage now, but Dr. Weng Tojirakarn assured that he would be just ill and he'll be back soon.
All in all, it was actually an anticlimactic day thanks to a major screw-up by the government. Nevertheless, we are not back at square one as Ms. Callan tweeted before - both sides have hardened their stances (again) and the red sides have a leadership problem among themselves again. Let's see if the government get their act together and start to put pressure on the red shirts - effectively! But on the other hand...
As today is an auspicious day it is unlikely that there will be an army crackdown in the coming hours.
Tweet by Richard Barrow (@RichardBarrow)
Nevertheless, right now at this moment...
Ratchaprasong rocking out this am in all it's electrified and hydrated glory. Louder music than normal. #redshirts
PM Abhisit Gives Reds Ultimatum to Disperse
Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva issued an ultimatum to the red shirts to leave the Rajprasong protest site by today after their failure to honour their commitment to end the protest (...) The government would step up measures to force them to leave the areas and such measures might also affect people who live and do business there, he said. "If they have sincerely accepted the road map for national reconciliation as announced earlier, the protesters should go home by May 12 and we can discuss other matters in detail later," Abhisit told reporters.
"PM to red shirts: Leave today", The Nation, May 12, 2010
A source at the Centre for the Resolution of the Emergency Situation said the new school term was another reason to clear the area. Most schools are due to resume on Monday.
The source said if UDD leaders do not end their protest today, Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban would consult army chief Anupong Paojinda about measures to end the protest. However, the source said the CRES yesterday did not discuss mobilising security forces against the red shirts.
The new army plans include cutting off water and electricity supplies to the Ratchaprasong area to put more pressure on the red shirts to go home. Security forces would surround the rally site and prevent more red shirt supporters from taking part.
"Irked PM says 'rally ends today'", Bangkok Post, May 12, 2010
This decision, the first ultimatum that was directly issued by Abhisit himself, comes after the red shirt leaders have again insisted that deputy prime minister Suthep to report himself to the Police's Crime Suppression Division and not the Department of Special Investigation (same claim as Monday).
The red shirts have driven themselves into a dead-end after stubbornly leaving everybody waiting, hardly agreeing themselves on what to do with the PM's roadmap offer (and also showing an internal conflict among the leaders) and in the end to break down because Suthep has to report himself to one law enforcement agency and not the other one...!
We have to wait for today's events if this new battle of attrition will take long for the protesters to leave and the leaders to give in. A violent crackdown is unlikely at this moment, but don't tell that to the hardliners and stranger things have already happened.
Further reading:
- Bangkok Pundit: Odds and ends from Thailand
- Absolutely Bangkok: A real ultimatum, really?
- New York Times: Thai Protesters Refuse to Disband, Putting Deal in Peril
Rogue General 'Seh Daeng' Sets His Own Red Agenda
Major General Khattiya Sawasdipol alias 'Seh Daeng' (Picture ©RN/BKLINK.BLOGSPOT)
In the aftermath of the most recent outbreaks of violence last Friday that killed two policemen, prime minister Abhisit has specifically named Maj. Gen. Khattiya Sawasdipol as "a mastermind against the reconciliation road map" and a "chief terrorist" who "he did not want the protests to end". Additionally, he is threatened to be stripped of his army rank and being dismissed.
Who is he? Maj. Gen. Khattiya, also known as 'Seh Daeng', is one of the notorious hardliners in the red shirt movement but also regarded by many as a folk hero. According to his Wikipedia page, he was involved in undercover operations during the Vietnam war, later in Laos and also in Indonesia. Based on these events, he has written several bestseller novels which explains his broad popularity.
During the 2008 siege of Government House by the yellow shirted PAD, Khattiya was a supporter of the pro-Thaksin governments of Samak Sundaravej and Somchai Wongsawat and led a black-claded militia group to counter the PAD guards. Already back then he showed his eccentric side and revealed to Straits Times reporter Nirmal Ghosh that one of the tactic to defeat the yellow shirts is to "drop snakes on them from helicopters."
During the change of power 'Seh Daeng' has been demoted to an aerobics instructor. Almost a year later, after becoming more involved in the red movement, he was suspended by the defense minister for an unauthorized trip to Cambodia in order to meet Thaksin. There also have been pictures of his visit to Thaksin in Dubai circulating around in Thai web boards and email forwards (also see this meeting of red hardliners with Thaksin in February 2010).
When the suspension was carried out by army chief General Anupong Paochinda in January 2010, his office at the army headquarters was bombed by M79 grenades and Khattiya was the main suspect. No one was hurt during this attack.
During the first week of the red march on Bangkok (man, is it that long ago already?), particularly after the symbolic blood spilling, Khattiya has fallen out with the red shirt leaders, ridiculing them for their lackluster leadership back then. However, 'Seh Daeng' reappeared during the dumb-ass ill-advised Chula Hospital fiasco and he gave the order to rebuild the barricade in front of the hospital, much to the displeasure of the red shirt leaders. Also, as pointed out in a recent profile on him in the Asia Times, he claims that so called 'Ronin warriors' have been fighting during the April 10 clashes and also killed soldiers, but at the same time denies any involvement.
As mentioned above, he had officially cut ties with the current red leaders and has called for the hardliners Arisaman Pongruengrong, Suporn Atthawong and Kwanchai Praiphana to take the helm. Last Monday he claimed to have received direct orders from Thaksin that the red leaders have been replaced by these aforementioned men - a claim that was quickly denied, saying that even Thaksin can not change the leaders. Some might question the public split between the red leaders and 'Seh Daeng', mirroring a Thai saying "แยกกันเดิน รวมกันตี" (walking different routes, striking together). But his announcement of the change of the red leaders can hardly been an unintentional mistake on 'Seh Daeng's' part, since he claimed his favorite candidates of some months before were supposed to be the new ones in charge.
He is now the unpredictable element of the red movement, since he pretty much has his own agenda to keep the protests going and is not afraid to turn onto his allies. And even if he denies any involvement in any of the violent clashes or any of the few dozens grenade attacks, with his defiant and aggressive stance he remains a controversial figure to say the least. His intentions are clear: to topple the current government and get redemption for his fall from grace two years ago. The fact that Khattiya is still running around the red zone and apparently is still able to command a group of loyal people shows that no one, neither the government, the army or the red leaders themselves would get rid of him easily. The question is: what makes him untouchable?
Further reading:
- Nirmal Ghosh (The Straits Times): Nobody messes with Seh Daeng (a profile from 2008)
- France 24: The Red Shirt revolutionary spirit (w/ video)
- Wall Street Journal: Video: Seh Daeng's Fortified Protest Area
- Asia Times: On guard at Bangkok's frontlines
- Bangkok Post: 'Guilty' Seh Daeng faces dismissal, stripping of rank (how the army wants to throw him out)
Red Shirts Still Not Quite Ready To Disperse Yet...
One week after prime minister Abhisit has offered his roadmap to reconciliation and days of back-door discussions, counter-demands and also opposition by the yellow shirts, the red shirt leaders have concluded their discussions amongst themselves and went on stage to say that they accept the November 14 election date, but have set up their own five-point plan, without outlining them all but they have announced a few key points like...
The red-shirts accepted PM Abhisit Vejjajiva's offer of 14 November polls but said they would not go home until the deputy PM surrendered to police. They say Suthep Thaungsuban must answer for the deaths of protesters in a 10 April clash.Mr Abhisit had given the red-shirts a Monday deadline to respond to his plan. (...)
At a news conference, the red-shirts said they broadly accepted the timeframe laid down in the road-map. But they said that they wanted to ensure there were no double standards in the repercussions before agreeing to close down their protests.
They said many of their members had been accused of terrorism or been subject to arrest warrants, so Mr Abhisit and Mr Suthep should be subject to the same scrutiny. Mr Abhisit has parliamentary immunity but Mr Suthep should surrender to police to face accusations of murder, they said.
Mr Suthep was in charge of security operations on 10 April, when 25 people were killed in a failed attempt to disperse protesters. His role was subsequently given to army chief Gen Anupong Paojinda.
"If Suthep refuses to surrender himself to police, we refuse to end the rally," red-shirt leader Nattawut Saikua told reporters. "If Suthep surrenders to police, then we will go home."
A government spokesman says the deputy prime minister will meet the head of special investigations on Tuesday to hear the accusations levelled against him.
But the BBC's South East Asia correspondent, Rachel Harvey, says it is not clear whether or not this is in response to the protesters' demands or part of a complex deal that has been rumoured to be in the offing for days.
"Thailand red-shirts set out new conditions", BBC News, May 10, 2010
Fact is, Suthep will go and meet the head of the Department of Special Investigation (DSI), and probably not 'surrender' himself to them as The Nation calls it. There is doubt if this will be enough for the red shirts to see this condition fulfilled, but later that evening it was clear that it was not.
เมื่อ เวลา 22.00 น. (...) นายจตุพร พรหมพันธุ์ แกนนำ นปช. ปราศรัยว่า กรณีนายสุเทพจะไปพบอธิบดีดีเอสไอวันที่ 11 พฤษภาคม ถือเป็นการหลอกต้มคนเสื้อแดงทั่วประเทศ เนื่องจากคดีสั่งฆ่าประชาชนนั้น ยังไม่มีการรับเป็นคดีพิเศษ การไปของนายสุเทพจึงเป็นการไปนั่งกินกาแฟกับนายธาริตมากกว่า นายสุเทพต้องไปมอบตัวต่อตำรวจกองปราบปรามสถานเดียว
At 10 PM (...) red shirt leader Jatuporn Phromphan said on stage that "[if] Suthep will meet the director of the DSI on May 11th, it will be a lie to all red shirts in the country," since the case of the order to kill citizens [on April 10th] has not been made to a special case yet. "This meeting between Suthep and Tharit will probably be just a coffee party. Suthep has to hand himself to the Police's Crime Suppression Division."
"นปช.ยึกยักเลิกชุมนุม ลั่น"เทพเทือก"ต้องมอบตัวตร.สถานเดียว จวกไปดีเอสไอหลอกลวงแดงทั้งแผ่นดิน", Matichon, May 10, 2010
Just to give some context, the Department of Special Investigation is a branch of the Ministry of Justice, whereas the Crime Suppression Division is a branch of the Crime Investigation Bureau of the Royal Thai Police. Whether the DSI's investigation will lead to anywhere even close to an indictment is to be doubted. The problem is also that the DSI has more or less taken over the case against the PM and Suthep and has additionally accepted a formal complaint from a Puea Thai Party spokesperson, who represents some relatives of the victims killed during the April 10 clashes. Thus, the red shirts leaders are more or less demanding the case against Suthep to be handed back to the police's Crime Suppression Division.
One other central demand of the red leaders is that the government should put their TV channel PTV back on air, after it has been yanked off the air several times.
One of the five points in Abhisit's road map is media reform. The red shirts have agreed to join the scheme but demand the same treatment as rival ASTV, the main mouthpiece for the rival yellow-shirt People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD). "It's good to have an independent body that takes care of media content, in order to prevent provocations and champion reconciliation," Natthawut said. "PTV is prepared to follow the body's instructions if ASTV does."
"Ball back in reds' court", The Nation, May 11, 2010
Prior to the announcement there were rumors spread by Khattiya Sawasdipol, a pro-red Major General widely known as 'Seh Daeng' (more on him in a future blog post), that the red shirt leaders have been sacked by former prime minister and alleged puppet master of the red shirts Thaksin Shinawatra and replaced by new ones. But this was, of course, denied very quickly.
UPDATED Violent Attack On The Streets of Silom, Two Policemen Killed
One policeman was shot dead on Silom Road on Friday night and less than 3 hours later another violent bomb attack wound 4 policemen just in front of Lumpini Park on Rama IV Road. The first attack ocurred on Friday night at 10.45pm just in front of Krung Thai Bank near Soi Saladaeng. A man on a bike fired bullets and hit 3 policemen and 2 passerbys. Pol.Cpl. Kannupan Lertchanpen who was shot in the stomach is dead.
Less than 3 hours later at 1.30am, there was an explosion near Gate 4 of Lumpini Park. Police spokesperson Pol Lt Gen Ponsatat Pongcharoen said that initially the police believed the grenades were M79 and the two attacks must be done by te same group of people who want to unstablize the situation.
"Violent attacks on Silom -one policeman dead", The Nation, May 8, 2010
As this is still a developing story, nothing can be said on the consequences of the attacks last night. It certainly does not help to resolve the state of emergency soon and the fact that yet again a M79 grenade launcher was used again raises question what this group of terrorists are trying to achieve apart from chaos. How all fractions will react will be something to watch for today.
UPDATE (9.00h CEST)
"Two policemen have been killed in these incidents, I think that someone doesn't want the protests to end," said police operations centre spokesman Maj-Gen Prawut Thavornsiri.
The grenades hit in the early hours of the morning at a security checkpoint in front of the Lumpini Park that forms the edge of the heavy fortified protest camp, which is surrounded by makeshift barricades.
"Three M-79 grenades were fired at a security checkpoint manned by police and soldiers," said Maj-Gen Prawut.
A hospital official said a 35-year-old policeman died during surgery. The Bangkok Emergency Medical Service said five police and three soldiers were wounded in the blasts.
"2 policemen killed, 12 wounded in attacks near rally site", Bangkok Post, May 8, 2010
A witness, Decha Phoonpanang, said either a small explosive or gunshots whizzed past him, shattering the glass storefront of a bank and hitting two policemen - one in the stomach - and a man in the leg.
Slightly more than two hours later, about three explosions could be heard in an adjacent street that fronts a park, with police officers saying they believed them to be grenades.
The official Erawan Emergency Center on Saturday said two policemen were killed in the two incidents. Most of those wounded were believed to be police.
Red Shirt leaders denied involvement in the attacks.
"New Thai violence kills 2, mars compromise moves", Associated Press, May 8, 2010
But a fellow twitterer who was at the scene says this:
been on scene 90 mins. nobody mentioned a motorcycle.
Tweet by @nkoleszar
Nothing Clear On The 'Roadmap to Reconciliation' Yet, Reds Still To Stay
After a day of relative political silence due to coronation day and thus a public holiday on Wednesday, the battle of words broke out again on Thursday as the red shirts as well as the PAD (the yellow shirts) have voiced their doubts or rejection of Abhisit's 'roadmap to reconciliation' offer. Whilethe prime minister was able to get support by his own Democrat Party and also the coalition partners, even the opposition Puea Thai Party, this week, the biggest opponent of the 'roadmap' were of all groups were those that have paved his way to power in the first place. In a press conference, the so-called People's Alliance for Democracy (the yellow shirts) have heavily condemned Abhisit for giving the red shirts "a shameful deal which will spawn the growth of terrorist and anti-monarchy activities nationwide," and he should either stop it or else resign. Even a meeting between Abhisit and PAD representatives hours after these statements has not resolved any doubt.
Prime Minister Abhisit promised the PAD not to grant amnesty to any persons or join hands with the opposition Pheu Thai Party to form a new government after an election, said PAD spokesman Panthep Puapongpan.
The PAD has its own New Politics Party (NPP) but Panthep said they did not discuss party matters with the prime minister (...)
Abhisit explained he would not dissolve Parliament for a new election (...) [and] would not amend the constitution for the benefit of politicians or his own Democrat Party, Panthep said.
Both sides did not reach common ground yesterday because they did not negotiate adjusting their stance but just simply exchanged views, said PAD leader Pipop Thongchai.
(...) Abhisit said after the meeting he needed to clear the way with all concerned parties on the implementation of the road map. He would meet Dr Tul Sittisomwong, leader of multicoloured group today, to exchange views as the group remained in disagreement with the plan to dissolve the Parliament.
"Roadmap still in balance", The Nation, May 7, 2010
As if they were still not impressed, the PAD emphasized again after the meeting with Abhisit that "snap poll might cause a vacuum of power, causing the civil servants to neglect to prosecute the terrorist suspects and the anti-monarchists" and that the time frame until November is an "insufficient time to restore normalcy ahead of the fresh election." (Source) And as if they did not make themselves clear enough, the PAD has called for martial law to be invoked, so that the army can 'finally' clean up.
Meanwhile in the red camp, the leaders of the UDD are still waiting for more concessions from the government, or "more sincerity" in their words, despite a qualified nod to the 'roadmap'. The main point is when the red shirt protesters are (finally) packing their bags and are going home. The Democrats and Abhisit insist that the reds do that before anything happens, but on Thursday red leader Nattawut was still in a defiant mood.
Red Shirt Co-leader Nuttawut Saikua said Thursday the red shirts would still continue their occupation at the Rajprasong intersection unless Prime Minister Abisit Vejjajiva comes up with a final solution from all parties about the reconciliation. (...)
"Now that the PAD wants to the Prime Minister to step down from his post, we are confused as they have the agenda like ours. So PM should clear with the PAD first and also seek approvals from the coalition parties about the reconciliation first. When all matters are cleared, PM can bring the final solution to us. As for now, we will continue to stay here,'' said Nuttawut.
"Red shirts will continue to rally: Nuttawut", The Nation, May 6, 2010
On Friday things looked a bit different as there was another meeting of the red leaders. One of the them, Kwanchai Praipana, jumped the gun and hinted that Monday would be the last day of the protests. However...
The United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship on Friday reaffirmed its intention to join Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's road map for reconciliation but stopped short of saying when to end the rally.
Speaking after more than two hours of meeting of core members, Nathawut Saikua said the UDD was firm on its intention to take part in a reconciliation plan initiated either by the government or any other organisations which adhere to seeking a peaceful resolution to the political conflict. However, he said the meeting had not reached a decision when to end the rally, which started from Mar 12.
UDD leaders would on Saturday hold another meeting to mete out its conditions for further talks with the government. The UDD would consider when to end the rally if the government responded positively to the conditions yet to be made and ensure safety for the protesters, Mr Nathawut said. He called for the Centre for the Resolution of the Emergency Situation (CRES) to stop intimidating the protesters.
"UDD says it will join reconciliation road map", Bangkok Post, May 7, 2010
Natthawut said the red shirts would today [Saturday] propose to the government their own version of the road map. One of the conditions is the government lift the emergency law. "If the government agrees, the protest will be over, and we'll walk together [towards reconciliation]," Natthawut said yesterday. Responding to the red-shirt condition, Prime Minister Abhisit said he would not end enforcement of the emergency law until the situation eased and the red-shirt protest was over.
"Road map gets red boost", The Nation, May 8, 2010
One of the other key points of the statement Friday evening is the emphasis that they do not seek amnesty from terrorist and lèse majesté charges. The Department of Special Investigation is on the case and have already charged nine of the red shirt leaders.
If they turn themselves in on May 15 as promised, all nine leaders of the Democratic Alliance against Dictatorship will be immediately charged with terrorism and other crimes, the Department of Special Investigation (DSI) said yesterday. Director general Tharit Phengdit said the nine leaders could be released temporarily on bail or face "confidential measures" prepared by the DSI if they failed to surrender on the date earmarked.
The DAAD [or UDD] leaders' alleged crimes are divided into four categories: terrorism, intimidating officials, assaulting state officials and the public, as well as possessing war weapons. The DSI is only relying on the arrest warrants issued under the Emergency Decree, he added. (...)
"Their charges will only be revoked if they are given lawful amnesty as agreed upon by the government and the Parliament," Tharit said. "The amnesty must stipulate specifically what crimes they will be pardoned for and which crimes would need to be further processed."
Tharit said he was leading a separate DSI investigation into anti-monarchy issues and the probe would begin next week.
"DSI waiting for red-shirt leaders to surrender", The Nation, May 7, 2010
And that is, unusual for Thai crime fighting authorities, the last statement of the DSI we are going to hear from them on this case for some time.
Good German Reports on Thailand For A Change
Those of you who follow me on Twitter might have read that I have not been a big of German journalism when it comes to Thailand. Especially during this political crisis, finding some decent reports in the German media resulted in just a few ones. So, it is more remarkable to find a good one. NDR, a regional affiliate to the national public-funded ARD channel, which also operates the South-East asia bureau, has aired a report on the victims of the deadly clashes. They interviewed friends and families of protester who was killed during the April 10 clashes and the solider who was probably killed by friendly fire during the clashes on April 28, who were both from the Isaan region. Even though the video is in German, the pictures speak for themselves (even though I'm willing to do subtitles if there're enough requests).
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-zLE4vb960&w=600&h=360]"Thailand: Gewalt eskaliert" Weltbilder, Norddeutscher Rundfunk via YouTube
Another remarkably good piece can be read at he website of Deutsche Welle in an interview with the experienced freelance reporter Nicola Glass. She points out a few issues that have not been discussed that much before. Key excerpts:
[Asked about the importance of the month September] (...) The current Commander-in-Chief Anupong Paochinda is going to retire at the end of September and his current second-in-command [Chief of Staff of the Army Lt. Gen. Prayuth Jan-ocha] would be his successor. While Anupong repeatedly said he would not use force against the red shirts, his number two judged differently, as seen during the crackdown on April 10. And if there will be elections before September, and should the reds win, then they would not want to accept the current number two to be Commander-in-Chief. (...)
New elections are an important solution. They will cool down the conflict for now. (...) Normally the political opponents must accept the outcome of the votes, but in the current mood I'm not sure if that is likely.
There's another point. It very difficult to conduct a new election under the conditions. Currently the political atmosphere is heavily emotionalized. The red shirts blame the government for the victims of April 10 and I cannot imagine that government personnel to go campaigning in the Northeast of Thailand, the stronghold of the red shirts. On the other side it will be difficult for the red shirts in the strongholds of the government supporters. I think it's currently very problematic.
"Entspannung, aber kein Durchbruch", by DW-World.de, May 6, 2010
Solid arguments here, it is the first time I have read in the international media that Lt. Gen. Prayuth has been specifically named as the next possible Commander-in-Chief. I also agree with Glass that it will be difficult to see how or if tempers will cool down coming election day.
Red Shirt Leaders Accept PM's Offer, But...
Unsurprisingly, the red shirts have accepted Abhisit's offer that will eventually lead to new elections on November 14, but not without a list of their demands to be fulfilled before anything happens.
The United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) has resolved to join Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's roadmap for reconciliation, Veera Musikhapong said after a meeting of UDD leaders on Tuesday evening.Mr Veera, the UDD chairman, said all red-shirt leaders made the resolution unanimously because the UDD had long proposed for it. Moreover, the UDD did not want to see more deaths and injuries as a result of the political conflict.
However, the UDD, in entering the reconciliation process, wanted the prime minister to set the timeframe for House dissolution because it is within his power to do so and leave it to the Election Commission to fix the election date.
Moreover, the government must immediately show its sincerity by ending all forms of intimidation against the red shirts, he said.
"UDD accepts PM's reconciliation roadmap", Bangkok Post, May 4, 2010
Other demands include...
(...)
- Red-shirt leaders do not need an amnesty for terrorism and lese majeste charges.
- The government must stop dragging the monarchy into political conflicts.
- The Department of Special Investigation (DSI) must take over all cases involving incidents on April 10, 22 and 28.
(...)
- The government should return basic rights to the citizens such as the freedom of movement, expression and the right to know. (...)
- The DSI should also charge the yellow-shirt group, which had earlier closed Bangkok airports, on counts of terrorism and lese majeste.
- The red-shirt protesters reserve the right to continue their rally in the heart of the capital until Abhisit announces the date for House dissolution.
- The government should reopen all red-shirt media outlets and give the movement freedom of communication.
"Acceptable if...", The Nation, May 5, 2010
They have a fair point that the prime minister can not simply set the date for new elections as he has to dissolve parliament first. Also, as mentioned yesterday, section 108 of the constitution says:
Section 108. (...) The dissolution of the House of Representatives shall be made in the form of a Royal Decree in which the day for a new general election must be fixed for not less than forty-five days but not more than sixty days as from the day the House of Representatives has been dissolved and such election day must be the same throughout the Kingdom. (...)
Constitution of the Kingdom of Thailand 2007, Unofficial translation
Assuming that November 14 is supposed to be election day, parliament must be dissolved between September 15 until October 1.
The only eye-catching thing for me was the refusal for an amnesty for the red shirt leaders on terrorist and lease-majesté charges. But on the other hand, the yellow shirts probably would protest heavily if their opponents would get a free pass (like the PAD themselves, as the court case against their leaders for seizing the two airports in 2008 has been countlessly postponed until today).
What's next? We are now, if we do not have yet another sudden twist, entering the definite last phase of these anti-government protests now. One issue that was missing from the red shirts answer last night was when the protesters will leave and give up the Rajaprasong rally site they have been occupying for a month now. Obviously the red leaders wanted more concrete concessions by the government before anyone goes home. It will only be a matter of time when they will disperse and by the looks of it, it will be very soon.
As for Abhisit, the ball is back on his court and it's not only up to him how this will fold out, but also his Democrat Party and the coalition partners. One might wonder why Abhisit has not talked with them before the offer? On Tuesday morning, all people (except for deputy prime minister Suthep and a few Democrat MPs) on his side were stumped, including his mentor and former prime minister Chuan Leekpai who was "not aware" of the PM's plans and opposes them, saying that he shouldn't give in to the red shirts demands and that there are other ways to the solution. Abhisit has now a lot convincing to do during the meetings with his own party and the coalition parties, that at least have partly shown their support for the roadmap (or at least the idea of it).
Also one thing that we will see appearing is who will claim victory. The red shirts will because the government has caved in to the protesters and has partly fulfilled some demands, the government will because a political solution was found with no further bloodshed. Either way, like Abhisit said "not all parties will be satisfied with this proposal," as the (surprise, surprise!) the yellow shirts have already voiced their displeasure.
Further reading:
- Bangkok Post: Reds call for clarity on dissolution date (w/ a possible timeline until Nov 14)
- The Nation: Reds 'welcome' offer (analysis Tulsathit Taptim)
- The Irrawaddy: Sunlight Creeping Through the Bangkok Gloom? (includes quotes by political analysts Frederico Ferrara and Thitinan Pongsudhirak)
Update From The Students Summoned to CRES
New Mandala has obtained an account by one of the three students that have been summoned and questioned by the CRES on Sunday. Certainly an interesting read.
Abhisit Offers 'Roadmap' to New Elections on November 14
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P312tO6kYg0&w=600&h=360]Abhisit's announcement of the “reconciliation plan” (video via YouTube, watch part 2 here) Prime minister Abhisit Veijajiva appeared on television on Monday evening to announce a 'road map' to reconciliation leading to new elections on November 14 in attempt to end the anti-government protests. But before this happen five points have to be agreed on by all parties:
1) All parties concerned must join forces to uphold the monarchy.
2) The government will carry out national reform to do away with injustice in the economic and political structures. As part of the process, the government will provide good social welfare, education, health etc, as well as other things to people suffering from other plights.
3) The government will ensure that the media will function as a constructive tool.
4) The government will set up an independent committee to investigate the deaths and injuries in clashes between troops, police and protesters on April 10, at Silom and on Vibhavadi Road.
5) The government will take actions to study the public feelings of injustice regarding to political system, especially after what happened over last few years, and try to solve the problems.
"PM announces next election will be held on Nov 14", The Nation, May 3, 2010
That all sounds pretty and good, but it has to be seen if the roadmap points can be fully realized (especially point number 3 and 4 makes me doubt).
We have come from a long way from the red shirts' original demand to dissolve house right away, to within two weeks, to within a month and lastly to 3+2 months (in Thai), whereas the government has originally offered new elections at the end of the year. With the newest offer by Abhisit, both parties are now just 1 month apart.
But the new date for the elections still takes places after the annual passage of the budget and the military reshuffle that usually takes place in September. These two points might be the stumbling block that the red shirts will refuse as the current government can make last adjustments before the polls. By the way, according to the constitution, new elections have to take pace 60 days after dissolution of parliament. So if November 14 is the planned election day, the House has to be dissolved on September 15 at the latest.
The red shirt leaders have not agreed on this yet as they, of course, have to discuss about it. The reactions from some leaders so far are...
One protest leader, Suporn Attawong, called Mr. Abhisit’s proposal "great because all of this will come to an end. Everyone will be able to return home and go back to work,".
"Thai Premier Offers Deal to Protesters", New York Times, May 3, 2010
Protest leader Jatuporn Prompan said they would seriously consider the reconciliation plan. "We will talk about it and discuss his proposal seriously and decide what our position is. We cannot just reject or accept it immediately," he told Reuters news agency.
"Thai PM offers November election to end stand-off", BBC News, May 3, 2010
The ball is now in the red shirts' court, they have to decide if they accept the compromise or reject and thus make the deadlock even worse. Because the military has also made its move today and were readying some armored humvees. Either way, the red shirts protests are entering the last phase as they themselves can end it or else the army will.
Further reading:
- Bangkok Pundit: Abhisit offers November 14 election (more details)
- Bangkok Post: PM proposes Nov 14 poll date
- New York Times: Thai Premier Offers Deal to Protesters
- BBC News: Thai PM offers November election to end stand-off
- The Nation: Last chance for peace (op-ed by Tulsathit Taptim)
Student Leaders Summoned to CRES
Students in front of 11th Infantry Regiment after being summoned (picture from UDD on Facebook)
On Saturday I was alerted to a tweet by a former colleague of mine and at the same time to an article by New Manadala, saying that...
(...) นายอนุธีร์ เดชเทวพร เลขาธิการสหพันธ์นิสิตนักศึกษาแห่งประเทศไทย (สนนท.) และเพื่อนนักศึกษา ได้รับหมายเรียกจากศูนย์อำนวยการแก้ไขสถานการณ์ฉุกเฉิน (ศอฉ.) ให้ไปรายงานตัวที่กรมทหารราบที่ 11 รักษาพระองค์ (ราบ 11) ในวันอาิทิตย์ที่ 2 พฤษภาคม เวลา 10.00 น.ทั้งนี้ ในเว็บไซต์เฟซบุ๊ค (...) ได้มีการเชิญชวนให้เดินทางไปให้กำลังใจเพื่อนนักศึกษา (...) เนื่องจากเกรงว่าอาจสุ่มเสี่ยงต่อการใช้อำนาจไม่เป็นธรรม หากสังคมมิได้จับตามอง เพราะตามพระราชกำหนดการบริหารราชการในสถานการณ์ฉุกเฉินได้ให้อำนาจเต็มที่แก่เจ้าหน้าที่ทหาร(...) Mr. Anuthee Dejthewaporn, Secretary-General of the Students Federation of Thailand (SFT), and two other students have been summoned to the Centre for the Resolution of the Emergency Situation (CRES) at 11th Infrantry Regiment on Sunday, May 2 at 10.00h.
On Facebook there were calls and posts urging people to go to the 11th Inf. Reg. to show their support for the students. (...) [They are] worried about a potential misuse of power that the people might miss, because the CRES is giving full powers to the military.
"ศอฉ. เรียก เลขาฯ สนนท. รายงานตัว 10 โมงเช้า วันนี้ (2 พ.ค.)", Prachatai, May 2, 2010
The summons were hand-delivered by a group of 6 policemen and also "They also took her photo and some photos of her apartment." Prachatai then reports today that...
The students were met by Lt Col Wiboon Sricharoensukying, Deputy Commander of the 11th Infantry Battalion. They were denied the right to bring in their lawyers to hear the interrogation, and were told not to worry as it was just for talks with police and there was no need for lawyers.
Over 50 people gathered in front of the 11th Infantry HQ to give moral support to the three students.
When they came out at about 4 pm, the students were met with over 20 supporters remaining.
"Students not allowed lawyers when interrogated by CRES", Prachatai, May 3, 2010
The question is what have they actually done to be summoned and interrogated by the CRES?
First there was (supposed to be) a statement by the SFT from March 16, 2010, in which they showed their sympathy with the red shirt protesters, so far I have not found it on a neutral platform (the SFT doesn't seem to have an own website), just on the UDD's Facebook page, but it can also be read here.
Secondly, this incident might also have caught the attention by some.
กลุ่มสมาพันธ์นิสิตนักศึกษาแห่งประเทศไทย (สนนท.) และกลุ่ม "ประชาธิปไตยก้าวหน้า" ได้จำลองเหตุการณ์วันที่ 10 เม.ย.ที่ทหารใช้ปืนยิงประชาชน บริเวณหน้าห้างสรรพสินค้าสยามพารากอน เพื่อให้รัฐบาลยุติการฆ่าประชาชน หรือยุติการใช้ความรุนแรงทุกรูปแบบ ที่อาจจะเกิดขึ้นซ้ำสอง พร้อมกันนี้ยังได้เรียกร้องให้รัฐบาลยกเลิกการประกาศใช้พ.ร.ก.ฉุกเฉิน และศอฉ.โดยทันที
The Student Federation of Thailand (SFT) and the Group for Democracy Progress have reenacted the violent clashes of April 10, where soldiers have fired on citizens, at the Siam Paragon Department Store, calling the government to stop killing or using any kind of force against the people in a possible second escalation of violence. They have also called the Centre for the Resolution of the Emergency Situation to dissolve the state of emergency immediately.
"สนนท.จำลองเหตุการณ์ 10 เม.ย. ร้องรัฐยุติการใช้ความรุนแรง", Thai Rath, April 18, 2010 [Note: The article is behind a paywall]
Also, Somsak Jeamteerasakul, a professor at the Faculty of Liberal Arts at Thammasat University, has written in a Thai forum what (might) has happen with the students at the CRES. He also has written his account in English in the comments at New Mandala.
in the end, there’re 3 students summonded yesterday, the Students Federation’s secretary, a female 4th year student of Faculty of Letters, Chula and a male student at a vocational school. (...) They entered (...) around 11 am and came out only about 4-5 p.m. The reason of so many hours was there were so many people summoned including motorcycle riders, hire caravan operators, etc.
While there are certain ‘rationale’ for summoning the Students Federation secretary, the other two that were summoned are definitely the result of very bad government intelligence! The female student was accused of belonging to the Red Siam group, she’s NEVER was. (In fact, hardly anyone who’s still in the country can belong to this group!). The other male student was accused of being leader of a group called ‘Seri Panyachon’ (Free Intellectuals), he isn’t either!
There were 3 ’rounds’ of interview that everyone summoned had to pass through, including these three students. Altogether all the interviews lasted about one-and a half to two hours. The first round was the police interview. It’s the same kind of interrogation anyone would face if going to or is called to any police station. There were questions and answered, typed into official interrogation form (as in any police station). Then there was a kind of ‘talk’, in which military intelligence personals would ‘chat’ about the political situation, the views of those summoned. The atmosphere this round was ‘informal’ and a bit ‘relaxed’. There’s no typing into official form, but there appeared to be tape recording, and one of the two officers present, would take some notes. Finally, there was a kind of ‘psychological advice’ to those summoned. The person conducted this round of interview appeared to be a ‘psychologist’ (female นักจิตวิทยา). She would ‘lecture’ those summoned on ‘correct’ political, social attitudes, etc.
Comment by Somsak Jeamteerasakul on "Student leaders summoned" at New Mandala, May 3, 2010
This is both very dubious and very concerning. While I do get the idea to interrogate motorbikers, caravan hirers and any other person that might be linked to the logistics of the red shirt protests, I don't get why they would interrogate students other than to intimidate them for expressing some opinions that the CRES probably does not agree on. And what would that psychologist lady 'lecture' the interrogated? Behave, do as we say or you might have to come back again...?
The Student Federation of Thailand played an important historical role of political involvement several times in the past. Be sure to read this blog post by Bangkok Pundit from last year.
h/t to @isAMare