Abhisit: "Martial law would be declared by the armed forces"

Prime minister Abhisit went into offense mode at the international media front and appeared on both BBC's HARDTalk and CNN's Amanpour Tuesday evening. I will write on Abhisit's interviews tomorrow but there was one striking quote from the BBC  that I cannot keep back from you.

Abhisit, regarded as elitist and undemocratic by his opponents, said he had no power to declare martial law.

"Martial law would be declared by the armed forces, it's not within my power to do so. At the moment they have no intention of doing so," he said.

"Well from my discussion with the people responsible and the people who have powers, they have no intention of declaring martial law at the moment," he added

"Thai PM says he will step down if national stability at stake", AFP via Channel News Asia, April 28, 2010

Negotiations Between Red Shirts and Government Failed Again

"Red base through their bamboo fort! #redshirts #redtweet" (Picture courtesy of @Dany_k)

In the light of the deadly blasts on Thursday evening in Silom, killing one person (not 3 as previously reported), a tiny glimmer of hope emerged as the anti-government red shirts offered to continue negotiating talks with the government, but was soon dashed as they rejected the red shirts' compromise.

The red shirts demanded parliament to be dissolved in 30 days (instead of previously two weeks or right away) and an independent inquiry on the deadly clashes of April 10, in order for the protesters to disperse.

But prime minister Abhisit rejected the offer. In an interview with Al Jazeera English, he explained why.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7yJ_IkjBu4I&playnext_from=TL&videos=ECEfSsruZ0I&w=600&h=360]"Thai PM rejects offer from red shirts", video by Al Jazeera English

With the rejection by the prime minister hopes for a peaceful and soonish solution have been yet again shattered.

On Sunday Abhisit appeared on TV, siting alongside with army chief Gen. Anupong Paochinda, to elaborate further on his decision.

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said on television Sunday that he continued to seek a peaceful solution to the country’s tense political standoff but that he would not give in to what he called intimidation by anti-government demonstrators.

With his military commander, Gen. Anupong Paochinda, sitting beside him, he rejected a call by the “red shirt” protesters for a dissolution of Parliament within 30 days, saying, “The ultimatum is just aimed at getting the attention of the foreign media.” (...)

“Negotiations must be done to find a solution for most of the country, not just the red shirts, who are just part of society,” Mr. Abhisit said.

"Thai Prime Minister Stands His Ground", New York Times, April 25, 2010

There was a minor incident that might have prevented Abhisit to get his message across to everybody*.

The program went off the air briefly, with the prime minister later blaming the disruption on "ill-intentioned people." Thailand's police force, army and other agencies are believed to be infiltrated by Red Shirt supporters, but it was unclear whether the opposition somehow disrupted the television signal.

"Thai PM says he underestimated protesters", Associated Press, April 25, 2010

*It can be debated that anyone watches the prime minister's weekly television show - it's boring!

BREAKING: Deadly Blasts Rock Face Off Between Pro-Government Protesters, Red Shirts At Silom

UPDATE 3 (19.50 h CEST):

Police have released the five suspects in the five bombings at Silom intersection on Thursday night.

One of the suspects, Jaturon Noppakit, 36, was a red-shirt supporter of the anti-government United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD).

Mr Jaturon said he was travelling from Wongwian Yai to join the red-shirt protesters in Silom but insisted he was not involved with the bomb attacks.

The other four were supporters of the multi-coloured group who opposed the red-shirt's movement. They had digital cameras and video cameras containing footages of the soldiers working at Silom intersection.

"Police release 5 supsects in Silom blasts", Bangkok Post, April 22, 2010

UPDATE 2 (19.30 h CEST):

A series of grenade blasts that hit Bangkok's business district on Thursday killed at least three people, Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban told reporters. He also said the government had no plan to crack down on anti-government protesters in the area, because women and children are among them.

"Bangkok grenade blasts kill 3, deputy PM says", Reuters, April 22, 2010

Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban said in a national television broadcast at 11.30pm that the grenades were fired from behind the monument of King Rama IV, at the entrance of Lumpini Park, where the red-shirts were gathering. "They were fired from the red-shirts' side," he said.

He told the pro-government group, who called themselves the Love Silom group, to retreat.

(...)After the explosions, the two rival groups clashed again about 10.45pm near the Dusit Hotel. Both sides were seen hurling bottles at each other. Security forces reportedly had a difficult time controlling the area, according to television reports.

"3 killed, scores injured in Silom attacks", Bangkok Post, April 22, 2010

UPDATE 1 (19.00 h CEST): Reuters now reports three dead.

Shortly after the blasts occurred an angry mob is reported to have attempted to storm the red shirts barricade, but have been stopped by a line of police, which then was attacked, too.

---------------------------Original post---------------------------

A series of grenade blasts that rocked Bangkok's business district on Friday killed at least one person and wounded 75, hospitals and the Thai media said.

Five M-79 grenades hit an area packed with heavily armed troops and studded with banks, office towers and hotels. Four of the wounded had serious injuries, including two foreigners, according to witnesses, hospital officials and an army spokesman.

"Bangkok blasts kill one, injure 75 - Thai media", Reuters, April 22, 2010

This was the third night after the red shirt protestors have barricaded the intersection with bamboo fences, closing a road leading to the rally site. There have been standoffs between police, red shirts and pro-governments "no colors" protestors (while it is possible that man of them are yellow shirts in disguise) in the last few days at that very same spot. See Richard Barrow's map for detailed location.

Gregoire Glachant has video of the aftermath after the first blast. You can see one injured foreigner (probably Australian), also it shows a hole in the roof of the BTS Skytrain station.

What Does The Command Shuffle Mean?

After a few days of silence prime minister Abhisit went on air again in a televised public address on Friday evening and announced that Thai army chief Gen. Anupong Paochinda would be put in charge of the Centre for the Resolution of Emergency Situations (CERS), thus replacing deputy prime minister Suthep Thaugsuban as head of the operation. This move certainly caused many to question what the government's next move in handling with the red shirts would be. Observers agree that Abhisit wants to put more pressure on the red shirts but also on his 'own' (it's never really sure who is in command of whom) peers. After the failed crackdown of last week and the hilariously botched arrest attempt on Friday, the blame could have been put on Suthep as Bangkok Pundit points out. But just a day following the announcement of his demotion, the government went out to clarify that Suthep isn't really out of CERS.

Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban is still in charge as the head of the Centre for the Resolution of Emergency Situations, CRES spokesman Col Sansern Kaewkamnerd affirmed on Saturday afternoon.

Army chief Anupong Paojinda was authorized by Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva to take charge only in ordering the use of forces to ensure peace and order in case of necessity, Col Sansern stated.

The authorisation was aimed at cutting short of the command line to prevent and encounter with the terrorists trying to incite violence, he added.

Mr Suthep, who is in charge of security affairs, will be the person to set up policy, oversee operation plans and beheld responsible for the CRES achievement, the CRES spokesman said.

"Suthep still controls the CRES", Bangkok Post, April 17, 2010

Basically it says Anupong has the last word over troop movement and deployment.

But why would Abhisit then put somebody in charge who allegedly hinted the current government to dissolve parliament? Bangkok Pundit again...

(...) Abhisit is putting the pressure on Anupong to do something. Anupong appears reluctant so putting him directly in charge, Abhisit is setting him up as the fall guy if nothing happens or it all turns to custard.

"Thai army chief given control to restore order", Bangkok Pundit, April 17, 2010

There are some media reports that hint Anupong himself did not of his own 'promotion' until the very last minute.

Some in the Thai-language press are interpreting this appointment as a surprise move to force Anupong to take responsibility for action for carrying out government orders regarding security. Apparently, this is the Red Shirts' position as well--that the appointment was a surprise. Considering how closely the government and military have coordinated their activities so far, the Red Shirt interpretation seems unlikely.

"Botched raid and Anupong steps forward", 2bangkok.com, April 17, 2010

It will be interesting to see how Anupong will handle himself and disperse the protests, given he has been reported to be reluctant to follow order for a crackdown. There are two things to consider: First, if the military is in favor of new elections they would have to happen after the annual budget and the reshuffle of key figures in police and military. Second, Anupong is likely to retire soon and will certainly not be linked to a(nother) potential massacre against the own people.

Additionally, the prime minister has assured that a crackdown against the red shirts has not been planned (yet!). On the other hand I really question how long this can carry on? This is not a situation that can contain itself for a long period, especially other protagonists blending in (the alleged 'third force' in the violent clashes) or threaten to take things into their own hand. Also, will the army follow suit and can stay unified?

Yellow Shirts Threaten to Take Matters Into Their Own Hands

The "Peoples' Alliance for Democracy" (PAD), also known as the yellow shirts, has given the government a seven-day-ultimatum to crack down on the red shirts or else they would take matters into their own hands. The yellow shirts have been mostly quiet during the anti-government protests of the red shirts, apart from a few statements. But now it seems that they have enough standing at the sidelines and watching the situation between the government and the red shirts go nowhere.

According to an article by AFP, the threat sounds like this:

"In seven days we hope that the government will deal with the terrorists from Thaksin immediately, otherwise we will show our voice to protect the country and the royal family," said Parnthep Pourpongpan, a spokesman for the Yellow group formally known as the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD).

The Yellows are calling on the Reds "to value their own lives by not making any untrue statements saying that the government killed the people," Parnthep told AFP.

"The Red Shirts should save their lives by stopping the rally," he said, adding that the PAD's actions would be "according to the constitution".

"Thai govt given ultimatum by 'Yellow Shirt' allies", AFP, April 18, 2010

So what does "according to the constitution" mean? I cannot possibly imagine that the encounter between the two fractions would remain peaceful - it never has been peaceful!

Another PAD quote:

PAD leader Chamlong Srimuang said: "Be prepared for a big and long rally. We will not disperse if the nation and the [royal] institution are still in danger.

"Decide for yourself if you will join the fight. And I am sure if the government cannot do anything in seven days, it will be our biggest rally ever."

"Return of the yellow shirts", Bangkok Post, April 19, 2010

Thanong Khanthong (yes, that guy!) fears the worst facing the possible outcome.

If the Yellow Shirts do actually come out, we'll witness a Civil War. In that event, Thais from all colours will come out to kill each other because by that time they can't differentiate who are their friends or foes.

The Yellow Shirts' warning comes at a critical timing. They have watched the crisis situation develop to upheavals, with a breakdown of law and order and with a Killing War Zone at Khok Wua Intersection. The Abhisit government is getting weaker by the days as the military and police machines no longer function. (...)

Based on these factors, I expect that the Abhisit government must find a way to work with the security forces to take on the Red Shirts. This would also pre-empt the Yellow Shirts from coming out to confront the Red Shirts face to face, which would result in a full-scale Civil War.

"Its the turn of the Yellow Shirts", by Thanong Khanthong, Nation Blogs April 18, 2010

So according to Thanong, there'll be violence either way whether the government cracks down or the yellow shirts will counter protest? That would be a real quagmire!

The yellow shirts' announcement coincides with anti-red shirts protests in Bangkok throughout the weekend. Reuters has this video report.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6Smram2bA4&playnext_from=TL&videos=jCzNuj_IpTU&w=600&h=360]Video by Reuters via YouTube.

As a side note, there also has been a mini scandal involving The Nation and a picture where the crowed number has been allegedly multiplied with the help of photoshop. Even though The Nation insists the picture is untouched, looking at the provided hi-res version still leave me unconvinced.

Gloves Are Off Once Again As Police Failed to Arrest Red Shirt Leader, Military Takes Over Operation

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HV7PrHi_oMU&w=600&h=360]Video by Asian Correspondent via YouTube After a few days of pause during the Songkran holidays, the gloves are off again between the red shirts and the security forces.

We used to the Thai police for being not the most effective force in the world and today's 'skillful' display of 'determination' would have been even better executed by Carey Mahoney's squad.

The Nation thankfully already has written about the Schadenfreude inducing events of today.

Arisman Pongruangrong and other red-shirt leaders on a wanted list could not be apprehended when they were in full public view in the middle of the city, so what convinced Thai police that they could catch them by storming a hotel that once belonged to Thaksin Shinawatra? (...)

Not to mention that two senior officers were taken by the red mob from the hotel to the Rajprasong rally site to "guarantee" the escapees' safe return. How come what was supposed to be a pre-dawn sting operation ended with Arisman staging the escape just before 10am and mobs accompanying all the police targets back to Rajprasong at noon? (...)

The operation reportedly started at 3am, with stake-out forces stationing themselves near the hotel's entrances and exits, with a few disguising themselves as guests. Problem was, nobody knew for sure which rooms the targets - Arisman, Suporn Attawong, Payap Panket and Jeng Dokjik - were staying in. The four reportedly arrived at the hotel at around 4am.

Then around 6am another group of officers, purportedly working for an assistant police chief, arrived. One of them then committed a grave blunder by asking the hotel reception for house keys that could open all suspicious rooms.

That apparently did it. Phone calls must have been made by certain staff members and within minutes red shirts living nearby were gathering at the hotel. By the time the two groups of officers became aware of each other's presence, the hotel was crawling with red shirts. (...)

The police called their superiors and requested commando reinforcements. Through all these hectic developments, the hotel staff managed to buy time and kept the house keys away from the now restless, and pretty much clueless, officers.

When the policemen finally got hold of the keys, Arisman was already playing a Mission Impossible hero, albeit with some difficulty due to his weight. His face was white and he appeared disoriented once he dropped himself to safety, into numerous red hands waiting to grab him on the ground.

"An embarrassing fiasco for govt", The Nation, April 16, 2010

Arisman Pongruengrong, a former singer turned activist, is one of the more radical persons inside the red shirt movement and is also believed to have stirred up the emotions at the storm onto the parliament, which then triggered the state of emergency.

It didn't take long after the botched arrest attempt for the red shirts to take offense in this and soon after that Arisman appeared on stage and more or less declared open season on prime minister Abhisit.

Speaking of Abhisit, he has made his first public appearance after days of suspicious absence and his response to the embarrassment was somehow unprecedented.

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, speaking in a special television broadcast on all stations, said Gen. Anupong Paochinda would take charge of the peacekeeping force meant to prevent violence by red-shirted protesters who are seeking to topple his government.

"A decision has been made to make the command line more effective and swifter," Abhisit said. "Therefore I have made an order to change the person in charge to Anupong, the army commander."

Anupong's appointment sends a signal that Abhisit is willing to raise the stakes in his standoff with the tens of thousands of mostly rural protesters camping in the Thai capital by letting the army take direct charge of security. Thai media have reported widely that junior commanders are itching to move against the protesters.

"Thai army chief takes charge of restoring order", by Associated Press, April 16, 2010

Bangkok Pundit has more quotes and also analyses what this move could mean for the next few days.

Foreign Editorials and Essays on the Current Political Crisis in Thailand

Here are some articles and essays on the current situation I've read the past few days. They are all worth a read. First up the Asia Foundation focusses on the role of the King and the changing perception of the red shirts.

But politicians are another matter, and the image of both politicians and the military has changed in the eyes of the Thai population. Villagers are no longer uneducated, and with the power of information technology, have become well informed about both their nation and the world. They are no longer willing to be deferential and respectful simply because it was to be their station in life. All Thais want to articulate their needs, aspirations, and, in times like these, their discontent. Any respect for leaders, be they in government or civil society, should be earned, not simply given. It is time for Thais from all walks of life to engage in spirited but constructive and civil political discourse. This will require a great change in mindset by the nation’s political elite. It will also require that ordinary Thais feel they have a stake in the nation’s political process and their country’s future, with both rights and responsibilities.

"Uniting a Divided Thailand", John J. Brandon, Asia Foundation, April 14, 2010

The Wall Street Journal's op-ed by Pasuk Phongpaichit and Chris Baker reflects on the fallout after the violent clashes of last Saturday and see the window of opportunity for a peaceful solution of the protests decreasing.

Both sides have martyrs and grounds for revenge. (...)

Electoral politicians are scrambling to shift ground in line with the voters on whom they depend. With a big election victory, the reds could reinstate the 1997 constitution scrapped by the 2006 coup, void the actions of the coup government, put the coup generals on trial, and bring back former premier Thaksin Shinawatra. In fear of these prospects, die-hard groups are howling for repression rather than negotiation. The conservative and royalist "yellow shirts" have called for martial law. Yet with every day of delay in restarting negotiations, the Democrats' electoral prospects slip still lower.

Since the 2006 coup, parliament has been battered and belittled. Two elected governments have been overthrown. More than 200 elected legislators have been banned from politics. A new constitution deliberately sets out to diminish parliament's role. The consequences are now clear. The country desperately needs to reinstate parliament as a national forum.

Thailand is running out of mechanisms for compromise. Various academic groups, business groups, peace advocates and elder statesmen have failed to gain any traction as potential conciliators. By loudly and repeatedly claiming to be defending the monarchy, the die-hard groups have eroded the institution's old role as mediator. There remains only a slim chance for Mr. Abhisit to play a positive role in the emergence of the new political Thailand, rather than being a casualty in the collapse of the old order.

"Thailand Runs Out of Room for Compromise", by Pasuk Phongpaichit and Chris Baker, Wall Street Journal, April 15, 2010

The Wahsington Post's editorial calls prime minister Abhisit not to further delay possible elections and explains why we have the political crisis in first place.

Neither side in Thailand's class-based political conflict is a paragon of democracy. (...) The root of Thailand's years of conflict, however, is the unwillingness of the old establishment to accept that Mr. Thaksin has the support of the country's majority. (...) After two more prime ministers were forced from office by demonstrations and questionable court rulings in late 2008, Mr. Abhisit brought the anti-Thaksin forces to power without calling a new election. He has resisted holding one since, for the obvious reason that Mr. Thaksin's supporters probably would win once again.

Mr. Abhisit is now suggesting that he could call an election at the end of this year. That stall is dangerous and unlikely to work. (...)

What ought to be clear by now is that anti-democratic tactics, from military intervention to street barricades to convenient court edicts, will not end Thailand's turmoil. The only solution is for both sides to accept that elections should decide who governs Thailand -- and that both winners and losers should respect basic political and civil rights.

"Stopping Thailand's Endless Battle Of The Yellow And Red Shirts", Washington Post, April 15, 2010

TIME Magazine's Hannah Beech describes the mood in Bangkok and the possible economical consequences. I also consider an award to her for the best quote describing Thailand in recent times!

In the facile political taxonomy we use to categorize nations, Thailand is considered a democracy. Yet the country remains, if not a banana republic, a juicy, messy mango republic. Over the past four years, two political blocs, loosely divided in terms of class and geography, have swapped control of government with whirlwind velocity, using ever more creative protest tactics and distortions of democratic institutions to vanquish their opponents. (...)

Even as this political farce has unfolded, Bangkok has, for the most part, felt strangely normal. Earlier this month, Abhisit declared a state of emergency in the capital after the red rallies swelled and mysterious grenades were lobbed across town. But restaurants were still packed, bars still buzzing. The only real outcry seemed to come when protesters had the audacity to converge near six shopping malls, forcing a halt to retail therapy.

Yet the growing political lawlessness is devastating for Thailand's economy — and the bloodshed of April 10 is impossible to ignore. Already, foreign investors are looking at regional alternatives like Indonesia or Vietnam as safer places to park their money. On April 12 Thailand's Finance Ministry trimmed half a percentage point off this year's growth estimate of 4.5% because of the continuing crisis. (...)

"Thailand's Broken Democracy", Hannah Beech, TIME, April 16, 2010

No End in Sight - Some Personal Thoughts

Democracy Monument draped in red cloth (Picture courtesy of @Ohochita)

I was glued to my computer, scrambling through websites, Twitter messages and live streams, trying to get the latest updates on what is happening in Bangkok at the very moment. Reports of violent clashes, gunshots and absolute chaos were spreading from the capital. Next to my desk was the television set to the news channels, either struggling to give a clear overview of what is going on or (in case of German TV news) just blubbering sheer nonsense. To see this all unfolding from a very far distance in an office chair in Germany was utterly frustrating. This was in April 2009 during the Songkran riots.

Fast-forward to April 2010, same chair, same emotions.

Both sides, government forces and red shirt protesters, were showing hardly any sign of giving in. In fact, defiance on both sides was growing more and more each day. With each successful action of the red shirts, such as the storming on the parliament compound or at the satellite TV station, their confidence grew. In the beginning though it appeared the government had the upper hand, with their non-violence tactic catching the red shirt leaders off guard and thus leading them to pointless ad-hoc stunts (like the now infamous symbolic blood spilling). But with each day the red shirts were roaming and occupying the streets of Bangkok, the government was pushed with its back against the wall more and more.

All the more vigorous were the violent clashes on Saturday, killing 21 people and injuring over 850. There is no other way to describe the crackdown as a catastrophic failure. It was a chaotic mess, with soldiers and red shirts fighting each other, a mysterious 'third force' also contributing to the casualties and reporters, civilians and tourists caught in the crossfire - this was worse than last year! Last Saturday marks yet another dark moment in the recent history of this country.

What many like to neglect is that the red shirt movement is now more than just a proxy mob of Thaksin, not just a tool of anyone to overthrow the current government. It is a true unavoidable force in Thai politics with legitimate claims, with a sound political consciousness that is now haunting the political elites and bureaucrats for failing to recognize the sign of times. The problems cannot be solely linked back to Thaksin (as he is trying to promote himself as the beacon of freedom and democracy, while there is no doubt that he is not) - it is a collective failure!

When the situation was calming down in Bangkok and the first moments for me to cool down from the hours of constant information bombardment came by, I had not the feeling of horror or shock, but sheer frustration. Frustration about the inevitable fallout, about the at times idiotic coverage (or even the lack thereof) by some 'news programs' again, about the helplessness over the situation, but mostly about that we are not back to the status quo of four weeks ago - we are now even further away from it!

Both sides are even more defiant than before, even less unwilling to give in, even less likely are the chances for any peaceful, non-violent and political way to end this stalemate. To see Thailand going backwards each day with no end in sight is just discouraging - the distance from where I'm witness this happening does not make a difference anymore, it is equally frustrating.

Note: This commentary was written shortly during the aftermath of the violent clashes, which explains the more emotional tone of this article. That are, after all, my personal thoughts.

The Crackdown Has Begun UPDATE 21 killed, 858 injured

After a whole month of protests, it appears that the government is cracking down on the red shirts. The situation is currently very hard to overlook from here with many unconfirmed and unvetted information coming in. Nearly all TV channels in Thailand are in news blackout mode as they are airing the usual fluffy nonsense instead of live pictures from the scene.

So far, no serious injuries or casualties has been reported. There are several hot spots around Bangkok. The army has been using rubber bullets and also fired warning shots in the air. BTS Skytrain has suspended it's service.

To keep up with latest, Bangkok Pundit has a live blog, New Mandala has an open thread, Nick Koleszar of media140 has posted links to livestreams of Thai TV news.

I will try to update live on Twitter (@Saksith) as the events are unfolding.

UPDATE (Sunday, 2.00 PM CEST):

The Nation has reported that the number of deaths and injured has risen to 21 and 858 respectively.

UPDATE 7 (10.30 PM CEST): My last update for today. Stay safe out there!

Cover of The Nation, April 11, 2010

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tL0s7ADT11A&playnext_from=TL&videos=nVPKhzE_I10&w=600&h=360]Video by Associated Press

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIR6XqQWz_M&feature=channel&w=600&h=360]Video by Al Jazeera English

The Nation has the most recent numbers of deaths and injured. Be also sure to read the whole article for details.

Eleven people were reported to have died and 678 injured from clashes between security forces and red-shirt demonstrators in different parts of the capital, National Emergency Centre's director Phetpong Kamchornkijakarn said late last night.

He said of the casualties, nine were civilians and two were soldiers. Of the civilians killed, eight were red-shirt protesters, while the ninth was a Japanese man who worked as a photographer for Thomson-Reuters.

"11 dead, 678 injured in Bangkok clashes", The Nation, April 11, 2010

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva last night expressed sorrow for the deaths following clashes between soldiers and protesters.

In his speech broadcast at 11.25 pm, Abhisit said he and his government still have the duty to ease the situation and restore peace in the country. "I promise the government will carry out [the task] with transparency, fairly and in a way that benefits the country and the people," he said. (...)

He said there must be independent investigation to be conducted by experts to determine the causes of deaths. "Both sides should not accuse each other of causing the losses."

"PM mourns loss of lives", The Nation, April 11, 2010

UPDATE  6 (5.30 PM CEST):

Four civilians and four soldiers were killed in clashes between the army and red shirt protesters, the Bangkok deputy governor said on Saturday without giving details.

Deputy governor of Bangkok Malinee Sukavrejworakit also said 242 people were wounded.

"Thai "red shirt" clashes kill eight - Bangkok governor", Reuters, April 10, 2010

UPDATE 5 (4.40 PM CEST):

The first casualties are being reported on both sides. Emergency medical services 5 are being reportedly killed and 300 injured The red shirts at the Rajprasong stage have shown bodies wrapped in Thai flag.

Additionally the red shirt leaders have reported that a Japanese Reuters reporter named Huroyuki Muramoto has been killed with a shot wound to the stomach.

Both army and red shirts have retreated from the Kok Wua intersection, as it is reported secretary-general Korbsak Sabhavasu will try to contact the red shirt leaders for negotiating talks.

UPDATE 4 (3.55 PM CEST):

The situation at Kok Wua intersection near Khao San Road is seriously deteriorating by the minute as we speak. TV pictures show massive riots, smoke and fire. Injuries on both sides are being reported.

UPDATE 3 (3.05 PM CEST):

Al Jazeera English reports that clashes have reignited as red shirts have hurled petrol bombs at police and military forces. Other reports suggest that it is at Kok Woa intersection. Also, the area near the famous Khao San Road was jammed packed with red shirts. Right now the police has blocked off Khao San Road as gunshots were heard around the area.

The large bulk of the red shirt protest are still at Rajaprasong Intersection. A Twitterer has captured a long line of red shirts queuing up for free food.

Meanwhile, the name of the injured foreign journalist is Vinai Dithajon, a photographer for ONASIA. AP Photographer Thanyarat Doksone (@babyfishie on Twitter) has talked to him and "He's safe. The 'bullet' has been removed from his calf." Reports are conflicting wether the bullet is real one or 'just' a rubber bullet.

UPDATE 2 (2.10 PM CEST):

The situation appears to cool down at the moment as the security forces have backed off from the Ploen Chit area.

There were reports of helicopters throwing tear gas into the crowd of protestors around the area at Phan Fah and Rajadamnoen Road (see eyewitness picture from earlier below).

At least 135 people, including dozens of soldiers and police, were wounded in the violence near the Phan Fah bridge and Rajdumnoen Road, a red shirt base near government buildings and the regional U.N. headquarters.

(...) At least five people suffered gunshot wounds near Phan Fah bridge, including a freelance photographer shot in the stomach, hospital officials said. The injuries were believed to be from rubber bullets.

"Thai troops open fire, move in on "red shirts"", Reuters, April 10, 2010

About 600 Thai "red shirt" protesters broke into a local government office in the northeast city of Udon Thani, angry at a crackdown on their movement in the capital, local television said.

Earlier, hundreds of red shirts forced their way into the governor's office compound in the northern city of Chiang Mai.

In Udon Thani, the protesters broke through the gates, cut barbed wire, removed barricades and entered the compound of the town hall, local television said.

The red shirts had vowed that they would besiege governors' offices in the provinces if there was a crackdown on their one-month-old protest in the capital for fresh elections. (...)

"Thai red shirts protest in second province", Reuters, April 10, 2010

UPDATE 1 (12.15 PM CEST):

Government spokesman Panitan and army spokesman Col. Sansern just finished addressing the public about the current situation. Col. Sansern said that the armed forces were only shooting into the air to disperse the crowd and two soldiers were injured.

A ThaiPBS reporter showed that their cars have been hit by a stray bullet.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SwP8-YFPY1k&w=600&h=360]

There have been reports that a foreign, possibly American, reporter has been injured by a bullet. Pantip forums has a screenshot from PTV showing the man being treated.

Teargas at Khok Wua intersection. (Picture by @legalnomads)

Political Websites Blocked / News Summary for Thursday

Let's get one thing out of the way first: there has been not crackdown or any violence yet! Even though the situation is so far the same, more than ever there has been a state of uncertainty. Under the state of emergency decree the government has blocked 36 political websites, mostly supportive to the red shirts. Among the blocked sites is also Prachatai (it has now changed it's domain from com to net and it appears to work). Needless to say, there have been negative reactions. Also banned is the red shirt's own television station. The legal basis for this crackdown is this passage from the state of emergency decree:

2.  Prohibit the release of news, distribution or dissemination of newspapers, publications or any means of communications containing content which may cause fear amongst the public or is intended to distort information leading to misunderstanding of the emergency situation to the extent of affecting the security of the state or public order or the good morals of the people throughout the Kingdom;

"State of emergency declared in Bangkok UPDATE Additional regulations censorship and ban on political gatherings", Bangkok Pundit, April 8, 2010

The other major developments so far are: Prime minister Abhisit Veijajiva has cancelled his trip to the ASEAN summit in Han Noi, an arrest warrant against the red shirt leaders (including Arisman) who let the situation at the parliament escalate under their watch, and by the time of writing this blog post the red shirts will march again on Friday, but it is not known where.

Also as a side note.

The Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) has cancelled all of its Songkran activities in the wake of intensifying redshirt rallies and the state of emergency.

"BMA cancels all its Songkran events", The Nation, April 9, 2010

(Caution: Sarcasm!) Great! First the take away the malls, now another songkran is ruined! Thank you red shirts!

Further reading:

• Nirmal Ghosh (The Straits Times): Defiance at Red Rally
• Newley Purnell for CNNGo: State of emergency: What life is really like in Bangkok (good for visitors!)
• Richard Barrow: Is Bangkok Really Dangerous? (essential information for tourists)
• Patrick Winn (Global Post): Emergency in Bangkok's Gucci District

State of emergency declared in Bangkok as red shirts stormed parliament compound

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDv1jZnA9Qo&playnext_from=TL&videos=kUWoSM_cuI8&w=600&h=360]Prime minister Abhisit Veijajiva declaring state of emergency. Video by ThaiTVNews.blogspot.com The anti-government protests by the red shirts are now in a critical phase as the government of prime minister Abhisit Veijajiva declared a state of emergency today. This marks so far the most significant escalation in a series of incidents in the past few days where the red shirt have increased the pressure on the government to dissolve parliament.

Earlier today a group of thousands red shirts went to parliament today and were pushing at the gates. Moments later, the gates were flung open and a group of them stormed onto the compound. Nirmal Ghosh described what set off the protestors to storm the parliament:

Apparently two "bombs" which may have been teargas canisters, were lobbed into the Red Shirt crowd, or just found in the crowd. Neither of them exploded.

But the crowd became angry and egged on by Arisman Pongruengrong, managed to barge through the gate, scuffling past outnumbered police who re-formed just outside the entrance to the main building. Some opposition Puea Thai MPs then came out and asked the Red Shirts to leave, and there was some argument.

"High Noon at Thai Parliament", by Nirmal Ghosh, The Straits Times, April 7, 2010

The "bombs" Nirmal mentioned were supposed to be tear gears canisters. A Matichon reporter asked the police about the claims:

ช่วงเวลาเดียวกันกับที่กลุ่มผู้ชุมนุมได้ทลายประตูเหล็กเพื่อบุกมายังรัฐสภา จนทำให้เจ้าหน้าที่ตำรวจหลายนายล้มระเนระนาด ทำให้กระป๋องแก๊สน้ำตาหล่นออกจากขากางเกง  เป็นเหตุให้กลุ่มผู้ชุมนุมหยิบกระป๋องแก๊สน้ำตาไปให้นายอริสมันต์บนเวทีปราศรัยทันที โดยแก๊สน้ำตาทั้ง 2 กระป๋องยังไม่ได้ใช้งาน เห็นได้จากสลักยังไม่ดึงออก

At the same moment when the protestors were trying to slam open the metal gates to the compound, many police officers were knocked to the ground, causing the tear gas canisters to fall off their pants. The protestors then grabbed them and showed it to Mr. Arisman on the (mobile) stage. The two gas canisters were not set off yet, as the rings on it were not pulled yet.

"ลำดับเหตุการณ์ นาทีต่อนาที "เสื้อแดง" บุกรัฐสภา "สุเทพ" ตะกาย ฮ.หนี นปช.ใกล้ถึงตัว "ชวน"", Matichon, 7 April, 2010

While the reds were storming the ground of the parliament, MPs had to abort a session and flee to safety by climbing over fences, like deputy prime minister Suthep Thuagsuban, and were airlifted out of the compound. Matichon reports that he was accompanied by fellow MPs, one of them armed.

The leader of this group of red shirts today, former singer Arisman Pongruengrong, is well-known to be one of the more outspoken and radical figures in the movement. He was same leader of a group that rallied and eventually stormed the building of the Electoral Commission last weekend and was also involved in the red shirts' ambush on the ASEAN summit in Pattaya almost exactly one year ago - what happened then should still be on everybody's mind.

And like during the incident during the weekend, there were reports of fake reds stirring up trouble.

There were reportedly some agents provocateurs among the demonstrators. Some people wearing Red Shirts were relieved of pistols and bullets by the protesters’ own security teams. They were then handed over to police.

One of the Red Shirts' security personnel – a former policeman – was angry: "We found these weapons on people who were wearing red shirts but who don’t belong to us. So we want to know who they belong to and how did they end up on the parliament grounds? Someone is trying to shed a bad light on the Red Shirts and to incite violence."

"Thai prime minister declares state of emergency in Bangkok", Deutsche Welle, April 7, 2010

This escalation probably broke the camel's back as this happened then later in the evening:

Thailand's Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has declared a state of emergency in Bangkok amid escalating anti-government protests.

In a televised address, Mr Abhisit said the move - which gives sweeping new powers to the security forces to tackle protesters - would help restore order.

(...) This is the fourth state of emergency in the capital since 2008.

"Thailand PM declares state of emergency in Bangkok", BBC News, April 7, 2010

Mr Abhisit said a centre for solving the emergency situation had been set up, with Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban, who is in charge of security affairs, as director. The centre is empowered to take action under the emergency law and enforce various orders issued under the law.

"State of emergency declared", Bangkok Post, April 7, 2010

Bangkok Pundit has a very thorough analysis of the emergency decree and what the government can and cannot do.

The situation is yet again very tense as the government, stunned by today's actions, has turned up the heat on the protesters, a sign that their patience of diplomatic and careful handling of the red shirts is wearing thinner and thinner. The red shirts themselves showed shortly after the announcement no sign of dispersing and vowed to stay defiant. Even though a state of emergency is now declared, it is still an open question about how it will be enforced. Surely nobody wants a repeat of the Songkran riots of last year. So this also puts the spotlight on what the army will do. There are unconfirmed hints that they, with the coalition partners of the government, will abandon Abhisit.

Further reading:

• The Nation: Abhisit govt needs to be extremely careful
• Bangkok Post: Red shirts are going too far
• Al Jazeera English: Video: Bangkok placed under emergency

Government-Red Shirt Talks, Round 2

Screenshot by ThaiTVNews

The second round of negotiating talks between the government and their opposing red shirts have seen an increased amount of feisty words, but still lacking any breakthrough deal. Though some progress was there, as seen again for everyone on nationwide TV and radio.

Thailand's prime minister offered Monday to dissolve parliament by the end of the year, but protesters demanding he step down did not immediately accept the compromise, which could have helped resolve the country's political crisis.

(...) The Red Shirts are calling on Abhisit to take action within 15 days, but seemed to express some willingness to extend their deadline.

There were no agreements reached Monday, and even the question of further meetings was left in limbo.

"The negotiations with the government have come to an end. But just how we'd move on from here, I would have to discuss this with my people," Jatuporn told reporters afterward.

(...) Monday's meeting, which lasted two hours, began on a more combative note than Sunday's initial talks, with representatives of the two sides pointing fingers and interrupting each other.

"The current climate is marred with tension and violent tendencies," said Abhisit, in what appeared to be a reference to several unexplained nonfatal grenade attacks around Bangkok in recent days. "One of my concerns is that, as prime minister, I need to create a favorable climate for elections. I have to also consider the opinions of the greater public — who do not necessarily align with particular colors."

(...) Abhisit said he wanted time for his government to carry out such tasks as passing a new budget. But taking action at the end of the year would also allow him to oversee the annual reshuffle of the military, which often interferes in politics. (...)

"Thai PM offers to dissolve parliament by year end", The Associated Press, March 29, 2010

Initially on of the main argument points is if the constitutions has to be amended before, as the reds demanded, or after an election, which the government favors partly for the reasons stated above. It is up the to the red shirts now, whether they still want the government to dissolve now or accept a greater timeframe that could be the end of the year or a few months earlier as mentioned by the reds during the talks. The next (possible) meeting will be on Thursday as PM Abhisit is out of the country.

Full video of Tuesday's talks can be watched here.

Red March on Bangkok - PM Abhisit Talks With Red Shirt Leaders UPDATED

UPDATE: Added two links, one with full video of the talk and Bangkok Pundit's summary of what's been said, down below. As we enter the third week of the anti-government protests by the red shirts, Sunday witnessed an interesting turn of events as prime minister Abhisit Vejjajva agreed to talk with the red shirt leaders, live on nationwide TV!

This is so far to a degree astonishing, since at the beginning of the day everything looked like another protest day with no concrete movement in any direction whatsoever. In the morning the red shirts have rallied at the 11th infantry regiment (again), where PM Abhisit resides since the start of the protests. Abhisit himself was not present at the military base, who hosted his weekly TV show from a different location, saying he would "not bow to ultimatums." But then, about two hours later...

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva is ready to hold negotiations with representatives of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship, and his secretary-general Korbsak Sabhavasu is coordinating with the UDD to make the necessary arrangements, PM's Office Minister Sathit Wongnongtoey said in a televised statement on Sunday morning.

The decision came as a large number of red-shirt protesters were massing outside the 11th Infantry Regiment camp where Mr Abhisit has been staying for the past two weeks since the rally began.

Mr Sathit said the government wants the situation in the country to return to normal as soon as possible.

(...) Mr Korbsak said the mass gathering of red shirts in front of the 11th Infantry Division camp was considered by the prime minister as a threat and intimidation. He said the withdrawal of the red shirts would improve the climate.

On Sunday morning, the UDD gave the prime minister until 10.15am to arrange the talks.  Soon after this, Mr Sathit appeared on television to tell the public of the latest developments.

"Govt, reds edge towards talks", Bangkok Post, March 28, 2010

Thanong Khanthong of The Nation (yes, that bloke!) had his very own theory even before the announcement.

Gen Prawit Wongsuwan, the defence minister, and Gen Anupong Paochinda warned Abhisit that he has to step forward to hold talks with the Red Shirts. Otherwise, the Military would abandon their support of the Abhisit government and the Coalition would be asked to form a new government with Pheu Thai Party as a core.

The prime minister must have felt that he is being forced into the corner. (...) The Democrats' bargaining power appears to be eroding. The soldiers, who come out of the barracks under the Internal Security Act, are getting tired and feeling very edgy. If the Red Shirts provoke the Military further, there could be accidental shooting by one of the soldiers. The Military are afraid that if their soldiers were to shoot the Red Shirts first, they and the government would immediately lose legitimacy.

"Abhisit Is Being Forced Into the Corner", by Thanong Khanthong, Nation Blog, March 28, 2010

At 4 PM in the afternoon both sides met at a neutral location, the King Prajadhipok’s Institute, an educational center on the outskirts of Bangkok. Given the very sudden nature of the events, some negotiations preluded the talks. The government side was represented by prime minister Abhisit, secretary-general Korbsak Sabhavasu and Democrat Party executive Chamni Sakdiset. For the red shirts Veera Musikhapong, Jatuporn Prompan and Weng Tojirakarn sat at the table.

After three hours of calm talks, both sides agreed to postpone until Monday at the same time. Overall this talk laid the fundamental arguments of both sides. It cannot be expected that a breakthrough deal would occur right at the first meeting, but the fact that both sides were able to sit down and make their points clear to everybody is encouraging. Bangkok Post has written a quick summary of the talking points.

The biggest surprise for me then was that the entire talk was televised on national TV, one of the pre-talk demands by the red shirts. Almost all free-tv channels broadcasted the meeting live and even though I can imagine that many people (read: not politically interested) simply changed channels or switched off, the availability of transparency during such an important turning point is no doubt a good thing. The cameras might have led the participants to leave any hostility and polemics at the door. Also, as an analyst on ThaiPBS said, it gave supporters of the red shirts and yellow shirts (who have been very quiet during the past weeks) to hear the central points of both sides, since they tend to watch and listen to media organizations of their own peer. (The Christian Science Monitor has written a piece about partiality in Thai media.)

Where are we now? From a factual standpoint we moved nowhere! The deadlock between both fractions has hardly loosen, no resolutions were made during the first talk and the central demands stayed the same. In fact Jatuporn, one of the red shirt leaders at the table, gave Abhisit two weeks time to consider dissolving the house and later in the evening on the rally stage declared that there'll be just a 'yes' or a 'no'. This reduces the talk on Monday to a do-or-die situation. A walkout or any similar acts by the red shirt tomorrow would swiftly destroy any momentum. But what we can gain from Sunday's landmark talks is that these people are ready to sit down and discuss why we got into the political mess in the first place. A quick solution is still far, far away but in these tense times, it's the little things that count.

Further Reading:

• Tulsathit Taptim (The Nation): A Glimmer of Hope
• BBC News: Thailand PM opens negotiations with Red-Shirts
• ThaiTVNews: Full video of the talks
• Bangkok Pundit: What was said at the government-red shirt talks?

Red March on Bangkok - Week Two Recap

It's been two weeks since the red shirts have been protesting in Bangkok and despite the noise there's still no end in sight, let alone a solution of the central problems they were protesting in the first place. The last seven days have been considerably quieter on the protest front, with numbers dwindling down to just a few thousands during the week - but it was expected by the protest leaders, as one of them said that the protesters, mostly from the distant provinces, were "rotating". Also the volume of the protests has decreased. After the still more than questionable blood stunt of last week the most notable act was a mass hair-cut of the protestors. As a side note, the government has extended the Internal Security Act for another seven days.

Another incident occurred on Wednesday, when parliament has been barricaded prior to a session. However, the fortification has backfired as MPs had to walk the rest of the way to parliament building and about 100 MPs of the opposition Puea Thai Party have boycotted and seized the opportunity to lament the barricade as a metaphor for the current political situation.

On Saturday the Red Shirts have originally planned a large motorcycle caravan roaming around the capital, but it has been cancelled the day before. The Nation has cited various reasons for the cancellation including:

A red-shirt source said the plan of marching had been opposed by several protest leaders, who agreed it would expose the red shirts to organised incidents by the government or a third party.

The source also said another march would cause severe traffic congestion at a time when there some important events were being held in Bangkok, such as the Inter-Parliamentary Union assembly and the National Book Fair, in addition to the entrance exam for high-school students.

The protest leaders yesterday also accused the government of assembling their supporters from communities in Bangkok to pressure the protesting red shirts.

"Red shirts call off plan for march today", The Nation, March 27, 2010

Instead, the Red Shirts were rallying to various spots in the city, mostly temples, in an effort to push out the military checkpoints stationed there. Nirmal Ghosh of the The Straits Times was at one of the locations and described the scene:

A truck with Red Shirt leaders Nattawut Saikuar and Dr Weng aboard, was parked directly in front of the gate. Nattawut was haranguing the soldiers but also offering them safe passage. A path had been cleared for the soldiers to leave, with the Reds’ black clad guards linking arms and keeping the mass of the crowd under control. But there was little tension, many were cheering and clapping. In the procession behind, trucks were belting out rousing Isan music and some were dancing. Big freshly minted white banners were printed with English and Thai slogans emphasising peace and non-violence.

A massive cheer went up when it was announced that the soldiers would leave. Peering through the gate I saw them loading their gear into trucks. Presently three trucks, one Humvee and one covered pickup lined up inside the gate, ready to roll. At around 1.30pm local time the gates were opened and the Humvee led the way out. The crowd was ecstatic. Some of the soldiers took pictures from the trucks.

"Thai version of people power?", by Nirmal Ghosh, The Straits Times, March 27, 2010

Similar scenes have been reported elsewhere. Encouraged by this small victory, the Red Shirts have gathered later in the evening in front of Government House also demand the soldiers to leave. Even though the situations looked a bit tense as it was unlikely at first that none of the two fractions would back down, the Red Shirts eventually decided not to pull a yellow shirt move and eventually retreated back to the main rally site at Pan Fah Bridge.

Unfortunately, there has been another bomb attack and it has claimed the most injured people since the beginning of the protest. Two grenades went off at two government-owned TV stations (Channel 5 and Channel 11) just within hours, eleven people (soldiers and civilians alike) have been injured. This is the latest in a series of grenade attacks throughout the past week. It is not (officially) known who threw these grenades, but it is very likely that a third party is involved here. For more on the grenade launcher attacks in recent times, Global Post's Patrick Winn has this background story.

Where are we now? By the looks of it there has been very little progress. Despite this, the most notable point is that the protests were peaceful! Neither the red shirts nor the government/military have provoked each other and have shown restraint and also respect. What might be a problem in my opinion is the  spirit of the red shirts. Yes, today's peaceful act with the military could be considered a victory. It is a very small one though, since not only the soldiers are now replaced by police forces, but also are they still far, far away from their central demands. PM Abhisit shows no sign of dissolving the house and calling for fresh elections. So, unless the red shirts are able to score a big victory - such as gaining more popular support from Bangkok residents - time is running out for them. But time could in the end be in the Red Shirt's favor as well, as both sides are certainly interested to move beyond the stalemate. The longer protest go on, the more likely a compromise is possible as Bangkok Pundit analyses:

(...) A journalist raised with Dr. Weng in a UDD presser on March 14 whether the red shirts would accept a promise by Abhisit in 3 months time and he said yes. BP doubts Abhisit (and *cough* the army *cough*) would accept the 3 month timeline, but what about a promise to dissolve within 6 months (decision is made at beginning of April) or by the end of the year? This would make it more difficult for both sides to reject. The reds want a dissolution now, but a promise to dissolve by the end of the year is more difficult for the reds to reject. The coalition partners don't want a dissolution now, but once the military reshuffle is resorted and another budget with the coalition partners getting their hands on more goodies to "hand" out. This would mean the Dems would have had about 2 years in office. They have a chance to see their policies implemented.

"What next for the red shirts and the government?", Bangkok Pundit, March 27, 2010

A new election would not solve the problems of the political crisis, as many of the issues are rooted much deeper, but it would be a step in the right direction if politics are not taken to the streets again - at least until the next time.

Further reading:

• Nick Nostitz (via New Mandala): Bangkok or bust, Part 1 (Great photo essay!)
• Khi Kwai: Thai-Style “Democracy,” 1958-2010
• Chang Noi (The Nation): Witness the death of deference
• Suthichai Yoon (The Nation): Yes to the red shirts' spirit; no to Thaksin
• Christian Science Monitor: Biased TV stations intensify divides in Thailand protests

Red March on Bangkok, Day 8

The red shirts today will march through Bangkok in order to round up support. Richard Barrow has created a map of the route, which will be updated during the day. [googlemaps http://maps.google.co.th/maps/ms?hl=en-GB&ie=UTF8&msa=0&msid=116480606892254086046.0004817fafbb87b0951c0&ll=13.760728,100.561638&spn=0.120049,0.20565&z=12&output=embed&w=600&h=360]

After a day of relative silence from the rally site (meaning no groundbreaking developments) and now a completed week, the protests might come to end. With the march through Bangkok today the Red Shirts hope revitalize their cause and also to try to woo in potential undecided Bangkok supporters. Bangkok Pundit describes the potential target group.

The red shirts will also more likely be seeking the support of the urban poor and the lower middle-classes, particularly those who earn less than 15,000 Baht a month although there is a problem in the sense that the larger the red shirt turn-out on the road, the greater disruption there will be.

"Are the red shirts all about Thaksin?", Bangkok Pundit, March 19, 2010

But in earlier post he also pointed out the difficulties of this move.

The red shirts face the same problem that PAD faced. You stay in Bangkok for too long people will get annoyed as their daily life is upset. If the numbers for a long-term protests are very high then the downside of this is that when you go walking around the city on the various gimmicks you will just cause greater traffic problems. Of course though if your numbers are not high enough, well you become less relevant. Media attention cannot be sustained for long. In fact, now it is on the wane. They will still attract attention for this weekend, but beyond that it becomes more difficult.

"Red shirts losing?", Bangkok Pundit, March 19, 2010

The Bangkok Post cites a writer from the Thai-language daily Matichon about the attitude of many Bangkokians towards the red shirts and the protests so far.

However, this week's red shirt rally is different from previous mob rallies in Bangkok. Most people in Bangkok neither oppose nor support the rally, but are neutral.

The reason might be that even though Bangkokians are still wary about Thaksin, they do not see the Abhisit administration in a shining light. Even though Mr Abhisit still retains a good image, he is seen as ineffectual in curbing corruption within ministries run by coalition parties. They see Mr Abhisit as cautious in tackling corruption, fearing the loss of support of the coalition parties who switched sides from Thaksin's  party.

They also see the Abhisit administration as being insincere in solving the red shirt problems at their core, and of trying to paint the red shirts as devils, hell-bent on wreaking havoc in Bangkok.

"Bangkokians prove neutral on red shirt rally", Bangkok Post, March 20, 2010

This could be the final act of the protest, unless they pull a PAD (seize a government building or an airport indefinitely)! The red shirts will try their best to end on a high note, showing their peaceful side and, in the best case, gain sympathies by Bangkokians. Let's if they are still welcomed, after the residents of the capital are being told to stay in yet another weekend...

Red March on Bangkok, Day 6 - "Peaceful Class War"

After another questionable display of blood spilling, this time at PM Abhisit's private house, and the decreasing number of attendance, there was still the looming question of what the next move of the anti-government protests would be. But more on that later. One of the major developments was the open split between the red shirt leaders and ex-communist insurgent Surachai Sae Dan and Major General Kattiya Sawasdiphon - better known as Seh Daeng. Seh Daeng is a colorful and well-known character in Thailand and he wasn't quiet today as well. In his usual vivid style he said:

เสธ.แดงกล่าวเพิ่มเติมว่า ที่ผ่านมา พวก 3 เกลอเคยพาเสื้อแดงทำอะไรประสบความสำเร็จบ้าง นำทัพแดงรบแพ้มา 2 ครั้ง ขณะที่ตนเป็นทหารที่รบชนะมาตลอด คอยช่วยเหลือเสื้อแดงอยู่ตลอด ดังนั้นแกนนำนปช.ควรจะถอยไป เหลือไว้เพียงนายณัฐวุฒิ ไสยเกื้อ และเปิดโอกาสให้นายอริสมันต์ พงษ์เรืองรอง นายสุพร อัตถาวงศ์ และนายขวัญชัย ไพรพณา ขึ้นมาเป็นผู้นำทัพคนใหม่

(Sae Daeng further criticizes: "In the past, what have the three leader of the Red Shirts achieved? They have led the Red Army and lost twice. On the contrary, I - the soldier - have always won and was always loyal to the Red Shirts. Thus the UDD leaders should step aside with the exception of Natthawut Saigua and make space for Arisaman Pongruengrong, Suporn Atthawong and Kwanchai Praiphana to be the new leaders.")

"เสธ.ฉุน3เกลอ สู้ไม่ได้ป้ายขี้ แนะมาร์คนั่งรถแทนฮ.", Thai Rath, March 17, 2010 - Translation by me

The last three names that Sae Daeng mentioned are known hardliners within the movement.

About the blood stunt he said:

"ไม่รู้แกนนำเอาตำราพิชัยสงครามเล่มไหนมาใช้ เพราะปกติเขาจะกรีดเลือดเฉพาะผู้นำทัพ แต่นี่กลับมาเจาะเลือดลูกทัพ ทำให้เสียมวลชนที่เป็นสตรีและเด็กจำนวนมาก กลุ่ม 3 เกลอรู้ดีว่าสู้ไม่ได้เลยโกรธ จึงโยนความผิดให้และด่าว่าตนทำให้แพ้ (...)"

(I don't know what battle manual they have read, because normally you the take blood of the leaders. But here they take the blood of the supporters, which drives the women and children away in large numbers. The three leaders know that they cannot fight, so they're angry and are blaming me for their defeat! (...)")

"เสธ.ฉุน3เกลอ สู้ไม่ได้ป้ายขี้ แนะมาร์คนั่งรถแทนฮ.", Thai Rath, March 17, 2010 - Translation by me

Meanwhile one of the current red shirt leaders had this to say:

Veera Musigapong announced on the stage at Phan Fah Bridge that the two had looked down on the red-shirt people by crticising the peaceful measures of the red-shirt leaders so the movement or Red in Land decided to cut tie with the two.

"Red in Land officially severs tie with Khattiya, Surachai" The Nation, March 17, 2010

There was certainly frustration within the movement that nothing substantial has come out of the last days and it was a matter of time when the first rifts will openly appear.

Suthichai Yoon of The Nation doesn't really quite believe the split:

But cynics say that this "break-up" may be a facade -- so that some violent acts could be carried out without the mainstream Red Shirts may being directly blamed for them.

We shall see whether this "split" is for real.

"Its official: The Reds are split...but is it for real?", by Suthichai Yoon, The Nation Blog, March 17, 2010

One cynic here thinks that he meant himself with "but cynics say...", just sayin'...

In the evening we got to know about the next (and may be final) act: they have declared a "peaceful class war" and will be rallying around Bangkok on Saturday. While this can be one last defiant move of the protests, we have to see if they can maintain a fighting mood until the weekend and I'm still not convinced that they will be able to woo in undecided Bangkokians to join the rally.

Further reading:

• Absolutely Bangkok: Red & Abandoned
• Patrick Winn (Global Post): Thailand: Bangkok blood curse
• Inter Press Service: With Blood Spilt, Political Wounds Far from Healed
• New York Times: Thai Protests Continue, but Scale Is Diminishing
• Not The Nation: Red Shirts Demand Cookies, Juice, A Place To Lie Down (Satire!)

Red March on Bangkok, Day 4 - Blood Loss (UPDATED)

"Tired #redshirt sleeps on the pavement in #Bangkok" by @alohalavina

On the forth day of the anti-government protests Prime Minister Abhisit has unsurprisingly dismissed the demand to dissolve parliament and therefore the red shirts (a part of them), after the deadline expired at noon on Monday, marched to the 11th Infranty Regiment - the Prime Minister's safe house and the government's situation room. Al Jazeera English reported from the scene.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gI23Kar9zy4&w=600&h=360] Video: "Thailand caught in protest standoff", Al Jazeera English, March 15, 2010. Via YouTube

UPDATE: Tulsathit Taptim and Panya Thiewsangwan of The Nation have described the scene and the deescalation tactics used by the military:

They spoke partly in northeastern dialect to the red visitors, teased them nicely and reminded them that they were confronting their own children who were only performing their duty yet would allow them to exercise their democratic right in an appropriate scope.

The military orators were aided by a powerful sound system that at one point jarred the nerves of red leader Veera Musigapong so much that he sarcastically vowed to drop the House dissolution demand if they would just drop the volume.

The friendly greetings - beginning with "Let us hear your voice. Let us hear your clappers." - caught the pro-testers off-guard and further limited their options. The red shirts had won praise for being peaceful and orderly and that reputation restricted what they could do in front of the sprawling Army compound.

"Army speakers win the day" by Tulsathit Taptim and Panya Thiewsangwan, The Nation, March 15, 2010

After the usual rant by the red shirt leaders against the government and other powerful key figures, the question everybody asked was: "And now what?" This:

United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) core leader Natthawut Saikua has announced that he will take one thousand liters of blood donated by protesters and spill it around Government House on Tuesday, in retaliation for the government's decision not to dissolve the House.

The drawing of blood will begin about 8am on Tuesday, Mr Natthawut said. A total of one million cubic centimetres (cc) would be taken from 100,000 volunteers, including protest leaders.

This would be a symbolic action. Cabinet ministers would have to walk over the protesters' blood when they enter Government House to work, he said.

If the government still refused to dissolve the House, then another million cc's of blood would be scattered outside the Democrat Party headquarters. The third target would Mr Abhisit's house, he said.

"UDD next move: Scatter blood", Bangkok Post, March 15, 2010

Really?! That's their plan? So far, the fact the protests have been peaceful and no bigger problems (or even violence) have occurred can be counted as a success and confident boost for the red shirts. But now they risk to lose all the momentum for this more than questionable stunt. First, there is the logistic problem: how on earth are they going to get enough blood of 100,000 people in just one night?

Secondly is a medical one: how are they going to get enough clean needles? The Thai Red Cross has refused to help, pointing out medical consequences of improper use. Channel 3 has reported that an unnamed hospital will support the Red Shirts with the stunt, but so far no other news sources did.

And finally the question is: what do they want to achieve with this? Unless they want to deliberately create a big hygienic mess I don't see anything being solved here! It all appears to me a rather impulsive stunt as they failed with the protest at the 11th Infranty Regiment. Even if the red shirts do pull it off, the this campaign of the movement is slowly bleeding out.

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At the same time when the red shirts protested at the military base, another base was attacked with six shots from a M79 grenade launcher. The 1st Infantry Regiment compound houses Army chief General Anupong Paochinda. Even though suspects were questioned by the police (and later released), so far there was no connection to the Red Shirts. This incident is yet another one in a string of attacks involving a M79 grenade launcher and also not the first one against General Anupong.

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In other news, the question of Thaksin's current whereabouts might be answered:

Former Thai premier Thaksin Shinawatra, on the run from corruption charges, was spotted in the Montenegrin town of Budva this weekend, a local TV station reported Monday.

Thaksin was seen in coastal Budva's medieval old town on Sunday, enjoying coffee and cakes in one of the area's posh hotel with his entourage, TV Vijesti reported, quoting witnesses.

"Deposed Thai premier spotted in Montenegro: Report", Associated Press via Vancouver Sun, March 15, 2010

As I correctly predicted on Saturday, Thaksin could only be in a non-EU country and given his connections, Montenegro sounds plausible.

Note: Special thanks to @alohalavina for giving me permission to post that picture. Go to her Twitter profile for more photos of today's event!

Further reading:

• Patrick Winn (Global Post): A Game of Chicken
• Absolutely Bangkok: Reds Fizzle Out After Marching To Govt's Tune
• Richard Barrow: Samut Prakan Red March to Bangkok
• Thanyarat Doksone (Associated Press): Thai PM rejects protesters' call for new elections
• Newley Purnell: Red shirt protests: images from Sun. and Mon.
• Greg Jorgensen: Some Thoughts on the Red Shirts

Red March on Bangkok, Day 3 - "Dissolve Parliament or else...!"

The anti-government protests by the Red Shirts has gone into its critical phase as the number of attendance has peaked, but no exact number can be given, because simply everyone is claiming something else.

A total of 46,377 people took part in the mass rally organised by the anti-government United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) in Bangkok, the Ministry of Interior reported on Sunday evening.

Foreign media estimated the crowds early on Sunday at over 100,000. The Associated Press quoted Pol Gen Wichai Sangprapai, commander in the main protest area, as saying he expected the number to reach 150,000 or more by Sunday evening.

"Dispute begins over rally numbers", Bangkok Post, March 14, 2010

As many as 600,000 members of the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship reached Bangkok late today, said Weng Tojirakarn, a protest leader. (...)

Abhisit said 100,000 protesters joined the rally last night, a number he said didn’t exceed a similar protest against him last April that turned violent. About 50,000 people turned up today, Government spokesman Panitan Wattanayagorn said.

“We are very satisfied with the turnout,” said Weng, one of the protest leaders. “It’s more people than last April. To say we have only 50,000 is ridiculous.”

"Thai Protesters Mass to Oust Premier, Pledge Marches", by Daniel Ten Kate and Anuchit Nguyen, Bloomberg.com, March 14, 2010

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As blogged yesterday, there has been the rumor that the government was considering to enforce a state of emergency. This has been quickly denied in the early hours of today and Prime Minister Abhisit said that such case would happen depending on "necessity and urgency only". It seems that the authorities are playing cool, for now. The fact that they have not declared Monday a public holiday, in order to ease off to prevent a traffic breakdown with the daily commuters, also underlines this.

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This weekend only marks the beginning of a longer protest by the Red Shirts as they say that the next few days are the most crucial. The most significant development today was their ultimatum to Abhisit to dissolve Parliament with 24 hours or else they'd storm he 11th Infantry Regiment - the government's "war room" and safe house. The deadline is 12 PM on Monday and with Abhisit very unlikely to act according to their wishes, it will be very interesting how to will unfold tomorrow to say the least.

Here's what the two English dailies in Thailand The Nation and Bangkok Post are saying plus an analysis by the British Times Online (emphasis all mine).

Today's noon deadline for the movement's House dissolution ultimatum will pass, forcing the red shirts to decide what to do next. The movement has announced a plan to besiege the 11th Infantry Regiment headquarters, but the real question is what they are prepared to do afterwards. (...)

As for the government, the military has been firmly on its side. One little worry has to do with what game the coalition partners are playing. News reports suggested the allies are not ready to jump ship, at least for now. If the solidarity is confirmed, this will leave the red shirts with two increasingly implausible scenarios of victory: An upheaval of 500,000 people or a bloody turmoil that somehow enables a pro-Thaksin coup to succeed.

"Govt putting the ball in Reds' court", by Tulsathit Taptim, The Nation, March 15, 2010

The UDD's lack of a strong or decisive response to Mr Abhisits anticipated rejection to their call for House dissolution indicates that their much publicised final showdown to topple the government still lacks the knockout punch. The one-million protesters expected by the UDD has not been achieved and remains a pipe dream.  Without that magic figure to tip the balance in their favour,  it is doubtful the UDD will be able to overthrow the government. (...)

Both the UDD and the government have been trying their best to avoid the label of villains for being the first to start violence. The longer the protest drags on, the more likely that one side, or both, will lose patience.

Despite the bluffs and counter-bluffs of both sides, Sunday's peaceful mass protest is a healthy sign that should prevail throughout the duration of the protest.

"Still cool... for now", by Veera Prateepchaikul, Bangkok Post, March 15, 2010

If the demonstrators can paralyse Bangkok, or provoke the Government into a crude crackdown, Mr Abhisit will be the loser; if he can contain the protest, and reduce it to no more than a noisy nuisance, then he will come out the stronger.

The likeliest outcome is a messy, inconclusive stalemate in which neither side lands a knockout blow, and the loser is Thailand itself – its credibility among foreign investors, its tourist industry, and its once powerful sense of national unity.

"Analysis: who will blink first in Bangkok?", by Richard Lloyd Parry, Times Online, March 14, 2010

Further reading:

• PaknamPhotos.com: Red Shirt March to Bangkok เสื้อแดงสมุทรปราการเดินเท้าเข้ากรุงเทพฯ (600 (!) pictures of the Red Shirts' march from Samut Prakan to Bangkok)
• Bangkok Pundit: Foreign Media round-up of the red shirts entering Bangkok

Red March in Bangkok

This Friday marks yet another chapter in the seemingly unending political crisis in Thailand as the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship have called their supporters to flock to Bangkok for a mass rally and yet again, they are calling for Prime Minister Abhisit to dissolve parliament. What is different this time is the anticipation on all sides. On one hand, the red shirts are boasting that a million people will come to the capital. It can be said for certain that this high number is more an aim rather than the real turnout will be. If they are lucky, they can manage to mobilize more than 100,000 protesters. In a press conference by the UDD earlier this months they proclaim that the movement has grown and are also confident that even the middle class of Bangkok, for the most part yellow, will join them. For the rest of UDD's press conference and analysis, AbsolutelyBangkok has written a report on it.

On the other the government is trying to cope with the large wave of red shirts. Besides invoking the Internal Security Act, military checkpoints have been set up at the outskirts and many other measures (e.g. pick-ups with non-BKK licenses cannot enter Bangkok) were made to either control or in some cases to restrict the protesters entering the capital. But the overall crisis management has been schizophrenic. The blog Thailand Crisis has pretty much nailed it as it's headline reads: "After contributing to panic, Abhisit calls for people not to panic"

I will not delve into the issues surrounding the protests (see below for further reading), but what I want to address is the anticipation to the upcoming events. Even though both sides have pledged not to use any violence against anybody, there is a tense mood among the residents of Bangkok. Clearly, the both fractions have failed to keep the mood calm. What is also clear is that nobody want to have a repeat of the Songkran riots of last year. While we all hope that they're will be no violence unfortunately - as we have seen several times already in Thai politics - nothing is for certain and nobody can be regarded as fully sincere. But all fractions also know that if they cause unrest and violence, the other side would gain space in their respective argument or as The Nation's editor Tulsathit Taptim has noted:

Apparently, it'll be a matter of who blinks first. If Govt fires first, it'll lose. If reds throw Molotov cocktails first, they'll lose.

Tulsathit Taptim on Twitter

Further reading:

• The Nation: All set for full-scale, multimedia coverage of protests (includes map of blocked roads)
• Bangkok Pundit: Pretext for checkpoints and stoking fear
• IPS News: Rural Protesters Prepare to Paint Bangkok Red
• New York Times: Thailand Braces for Political Rallies in Capital

Also, follow me on Twitter for updates on the events.

What will happen on Feburary 26, 2010?

The Supreme Court will give it's verdict this Friday on whether or not, partially or entirely, to seize 76 billion baht ($2.3 billion) of frozen assets which belongs to Thaksin Shinawatra. Meanwhile, hundreds of extra security forces have been deployed in Bangkok including military personnel to support the police. The Red Shirts have also gathered, albeit not in the highest numbers, in the capital eagerly awaiting the verdict. These are the facts. Beyond that is an atmosphere of tense anticipation prior to the verdict and both sides of the spectrum have not really done their best to calm the mood down. In fact, the PM Abhisit's personal spokesperson Theptai Saenpong has spoken about "10 days of danger":

กลุ่มคนเสื้อแดง ว่า จากการวิเคราะห์สถานการณ์เห็นว่า ในช่วงเวลา 10 วันอันตราย จะเป็นเรื่องที่มีความเป็นไปได้สูง ว่าจะเกิดความรุนแรง

Thepthai as stating in reference to the red shirts and from analysis of the situation that in the 10 days of danger that it was likely that there would be violence.

("ปชป.เผย'10สถานที่เสี่ยง'รุนแรง10วันอันตราย", Kom Chad Luek, Feb 19, 2010 - link and translation via Bangkok Pundit, emphasis mine)

Frederico Ferrara, an Assistant Professor of Political Science at the National University of Singapore, was more direct about the government's stance at a recent panel discussion:

But key government figures have done their part to ratchet up fear of the Red Shirts.

"It seems like there are people on both sides who are intent on precipitating this to some extent; each has its own calculations. The government’s posture in this regard is not encouraging at all", Professor Ferrara said at the FCCT.

"The scaremongering and the demonization of the opposition that you hear every day in the papers; the mysterious grenade attacks; it seems like from the old playbook."

"This is stuff that’s been happening here for 35 years. You rile up the population that are kind of neutral, you scare them to such an extent that when something does happen, when the regime really does crack down, when perhaps the army does take over, they are seen as the ones who are restoring order and protecting the unity of the nation, not the ones who are undermining the order and the unity of the nation as they have for the last 35 years."

It is a cat and mouse game, with bluff and counter-bluff, and nobody quite knows how the chips will fall.

("Cat and Mouse in Thailand", by Nirmal Ghosh, Feb 21, 2010)

And thus the Thai media has picked up on the theme of intimidation. Newspapers have billed February 26th as "Judgment Day", as if some eagerly await something to happen.

The government meanwhile, after the Songkran riots of April 2009, are not taking any chances and have beefed up the security considerably.

The Red Shirts on the other side are determined to make a stand, but red isn't automatically red:

At the same time there appears to be many "shades of red" within the red camp. There is a faction of the "loyal" reds who are doing everything due to their love for and loyalty to Thaksin and Thaksin alone.

There are people who have become "red" because they feel the injustice that prevails in Thai society and would like to push for change in a peaceful and democratic manner.

And there is the "hardcore" militant red ready to unleash violence on its enemies, whether out of personal vendetta or the belief that only force will bring the necessary change.

Strategically, the reds will press on to demonstrate that Thais live under a "double standard" system where the elite and aristocrats, the so-called amartya, with military backing and the Democrat Party as a political front, continue to exploit and take advantage of the majority of people.

("Talking Points Before Final Showdown", by Suranand Vejjajiva, Bangkok Post, Feb 19, 2010)

Regardless of the outcome, this will not be largest turnout by reds, as they announced their mass rally with "millions of supporters" will take place on March 12, 2010.

I will not address many key issues here as there have been examined better by others like where Thaksin's money comes from, if there is a legal precedent and what the some (secretly) hope to achieve with a full seizure. I also will not discuss the possible outcome(s) of the verdict.

Nevertheless, it is apparent that this is a landmark case in Thailand and the anticipation on this Friday shows that it more than just about the money and Thaksin - the country is still very divided and still very far from the much proposed national reconciliation. We will have to wait and see where Thailand is heading at the end of the day.

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To keep up with the latest on this topic, I recommend to follow these people on Twitter: @Newley, @bangkokpundit, @TAN_Network, @tulsathit (of course I might have forgot a few dozen). I also, time difference permitting, probably will give my take via Twitter (@Saksith) later.