A Thai History of Violence About to Repeat Itself?
"The level of hate in Thailand" (picture courtesy of Mark MacKinnon)
The Economist has yet another article about Thailand that might caused the magazine not to appear on the newsstands there. While there was one topic that certainly was the main reason for the non-distrubuting, the other one is worth discussing in my opinion. Key excerpts:
Can further bloodshed be averted? Two factors suggest not. First, in Thailand violence is more embedded than most care to admit. (...)
The violence first. The shootings on April 10th, in which five soldiers and 18 protesters died, raised the spectre of previous military slaughters of innocents, which also happened in 1973, 1976 and 1992. True, the army has shown restraint this time. It first applied modern crowd-control techniques—water cannon, tear gas, rubber bullets. But the crowds refused to disperse. Worse, the army was caught after dark in civilian-filled streets, which smart commanders know to be a recipe for disaster. Soldiers fired into the crowds, in self-defence (they said) against armed “terrorists”. Then they fled for their lives, abandoning a column of armoured personnel carriers. Humiliated, junior officers want revenge.
Violence is not a military monopoly. Thailand can be a vicious place. Crime and vigilante justice are rampant, hitmen are cheap, militias abound and a Muslim insurgency rumbles on in the south. Under Mr Thaksin, extrajudicial squads killed thousands of suspected drug-pushers and other criminals.
From the start, the red shirts have had a thuggish element. Most reds are disciplined, conscious that a good image counts for much. But a minority has long carried sticks and knives and lobbed petrol bombs. (...)
Both army and protesters, then, have their grievances. And now, after months away, the yellow shirts are back. These are the pro-establishment People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) whose own minority of black-clad guards once used guns and explosives against the police and which stockpiled golf clubs as weapons—nicely reflecting the group’s milieu. On April 18th leaders of the PAD called for martial law and gave the government a week to end the protests or, they said, they would order their own people back on to the streets. All this amounts to one big reason to believe peace will have to wait.
"Banyan: Bloody shirts in the city of angels", The Economist, April 22, 2010
There is an ever-present potential of violence since the beginning of the protests and with recent developments showing no sign of easing off tensions at both sides, the possibility of a 'civil war' (especially when the yellow shirts are coming back) is being thrown around. Seven days after the PAD has urged the government to wipe off the red shirts out of Bangkok, the protests are still there. It is yet to be seen if the yellow shirts will up the ante against the red shirts now.
But how likely is it? Patrick Winn examines:
According to analysts, it’s unlikely.
Many academics define civil wars as conflicts that tally at least 1,000 deaths per year and witness the weaker force inflicting at least 5 percent of all fatalities.
The probability of such a large-scale conflict remains “quite remote,” said Federico Ferrara, a National University of Singapore political science professor and author of "Thailand Unhinged: Unraveling the Myth of Thai-Style Democracy."
“The two sides are very unlikely to engage in open warfare with one another,” Ferrara said.
Still, future stand-offs between Red Shirts and troops, rival demonstrators or both could very well serve as flash points for more bloodshed, he said. “Given the firepower and strength of the two sides, the conflict definitely has the potential to create mass casualties.”
The current Thai preoccupation with civil war is more than hysteria, said Kevin Hewison, director of the Carolina Asia Center at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. The civil war threat, he said, has been invoked by the government itself, which has warned that Red Shirts are pursuing a potentially violent overhaul of Thai institutions.
Bitterness is compounded by the insults such as “buffaloes” [see picture above] and pro-government columnists’ insistence that rural voters are uneducated and easily swayed by corrupt politicians.
“For the Red Shirts who fall into this category, this is a terrible rejection of their world and their lives,” Hewison said. This class rage is further stoked by protest leaders’ stage rhetoric, which frequently derides the prime minister and his allies as “murderers and tyrants.”
"Is Thailand headed for civil war?", Global Post, April 25, 2010
Winn then goes on tackling the issue of the 'watermelon soldiers' (as discussed here) and concludes that even though the country will not spiral into civil war but an ugly "urban-rural divide and sporadically violent demonstrations."
The arrogance of many middle-class citizens of Bangkok certainly was there before and is one of the main reasons of the whole political conflict, the ruling establishment has simply neglected much of the rest of the country. All essential decisions are made in Bangkok and now the rest of the country wants to take at least a piece of the power back to themselves.
Some recent incidents outside of Bangkok, most noticeably the seizing of an army train by red shirts in Khon Kaen, indicate that the political conflict may spread out in the countryside and the government now has not only has a frontline in the South, but in the Northeast as well.
Shameless Self-Plug: Al Jazeera's Listening Post on Media Coverage of Thai Protests
This is not going to help ending my continuous praise for Al Jazeera English's regular and good coverage on Thailand and the current protests in particular. The channel's media magazine Listening Post examines the media's role in the anti-government protests and how both sides are battling each other on the airwaves and online. Also, yours truly makes an appearance on the Global Village Voices segment where I give my opinion about the media coverage of the protests, beginning at the 8:15 minute mark - followed by Chiranuch Premchaiporn, webmaster of the embattled news site Prachatai.
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pIqkTX_FKDU&playnext_from=TL&videos=WLUBzJqT_jI&w=600&h=360]
:)
Further Reading:
- Christian Science Monitor: Biased TV stations intensify divides in Thailand protests
BREAKING: Deadly Blasts Rock Face Off Between Pro-Government Protesters, Red Shirts At Silom
UPDATE 3 (19.50 h CEST):
Police have released the five suspects in the five bombings at Silom intersection on Thursday night.
One of the suspects, Jaturon Noppakit, 36, was a red-shirt supporter of the anti-government United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD).
Mr Jaturon said he was travelling from Wongwian Yai to join the red-shirt protesters in Silom but insisted he was not involved with the bomb attacks.
The other four were supporters of the multi-coloured group who opposed the red-shirt's movement. They had digital cameras and video cameras containing footages of the soldiers working at Silom intersection.
"Police release 5 supsects in Silom blasts", Bangkok Post, April 22, 2010
UPDATE 2 (19.30 h CEST):
A series of grenade blasts that hit Bangkok's business district on Thursday killed at least three people, Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban told reporters. He also said the government had no plan to crack down on anti-government protesters in the area, because women and children are among them.
"Bangkok grenade blasts kill 3, deputy PM says", Reuters, April 22, 2010
Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban said in a national television broadcast at 11.30pm that the grenades were fired from behind the monument of King Rama IV, at the entrance of Lumpini Park, where the red-shirts were gathering. "They were fired from the red-shirts' side," he said.
He told the pro-government group, who called themselves the Love Silom group, to retreat.
(...)After the explosions, the two rival groups clashed again about 10.45pm near the Dusit Hotel. Both sides were seen hurling bottles at each other. Security forces reportedly had a difficult time controlling the area, according to television reports.
"3 killed, scores injured in Silom attacks", Bangkok Post, April 22, 2010
UPDATE 1 (19.00 h CEST): Reuters now reports three dead.
Shortly after the blasts occurred an angry mob is reported to have attempted to storm the red shirts barricade, but have been stopped by a line of police, which then was attacked, too.
---------------------------Original post---------------------------
A series of grenade blasts that rocked Bangkok's business district on Friday killed at least one person and wounded 75, hospitals and the Thai media said.
Five M-79 grenades hit an area packed with heavily armed troops and studded with banks, office towers and hotels. Four of the wounded had serious injuries, including two foreigners, according to witnesses, hospital officials and an army spokesman.
"Bangkok blasts kill one, injure 75 - Thai media", Reuters, April 22, 2010
This was the third night after the red shirt protestors have barricaded the intersection with bamboo fences, closing a road leading to the rally site. There have been standoffs between police, red shirts and pro-governments "no colors" protestors (while it is possible that man of them are yellow shirts in disguise) in the last few days at that very same spot. See Richard Barrow's map for detailed location.
Gregoire Glachant has video of the aftermath after the first blast. You can see one injured foreigner (probably Australian), also it shows a hole in the roof of the BTS Skytrain station.
Yellow Shirts Threaten to Take Matters Into Their Own Hands
The "Peoples' Alliance for Democracy" (PAD), also known as the yellow shirts, has given the government a seven-day-ultimatum to crack down on the red shirts or else they would take matters into their own hands. The yellow shirts have been mostly quiet during the anti-government protests of the red shirts, apart from a few statements. But now it seems that they have enough standing at the sidelines and watching the situation between the government and the red shirts go nowhere.
According to an article by AFP, the threat sounds like this:
"In seven days we hope that the government will deal with the terrorists from Thaksin immediately, otherwise we will show our voice to protect the country and the royal family," said Parnthep Pourpongpan, a spokesman for the Yellow group formally known as the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD).
The Yellows are calling on the Reds "to value their own lives by not making any untrue statements saying that the government killed the people," Parnthep told AFP.
"The Red Shirts should save their lives by stopping the rally," he said, adding that the PAD's actions would be "according to the constitution".
"Thai govt given ultimatum by 'Yellow Shirt' allies", AFP, April 18, 2010
So what does "according to the constitution" mean? I cannot possibly imagine that the encounter between the two fractions would remain peaceful - it never has been peaceful!
Another PAD quote:
PAD leader Chamlong Srimuang said: "Be prepared for a big and long rally. We will not disperse if the nation and the [royal] institution are still in danger.
"Decide for yourself if you will join the fight. And I am sure if the government cannot do anything in seven days, it will be our biggest rally ever."
"Return of the yellow shirts", Bangkok Post, April 19, 2010
Thanong Khanthong (yes, that guy!) fears the worst facing the possible outcome.
If the Yellow Shirts do actually come out, we'll witness a Civil War. In that event, Thais from all colours will come out to kill each other because by that time they can't differentiate who are their friends or foes.
The Yellow Shirts' warning comes at a critical timing. They have watched the crisis situation develop to upheavals, with a breakdown of law and order and with a Killing War Zone at Khok Wua Intersection. The Abhisit government is getting weaker by the days as the military and police machines no longer function. (...)
Based on these factors, I expect that the Abhisit government must find a way to work with the security forces to take on the Red Shirts. This would also pre-empt the Yellow Shirts from coming out to confront the Red Shirts face to face, which would result in a full-scale Civil War.
"Its the turn of the Yellow Shirts", by Thanong Khanthong, Nation Blogs April 18, 2010
So according to Thanong, there'll be violence either way whether the government cracks down or the yellow shirts will counter protest? That would be a real quagmire!
The yellow shirts' announcement coincides with anti-red shirts protests in Bangkok throughout the weekend. Reuters has this video report.
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6Smram2bA4&playnext_from=TL&videos=jCzNuj_IpTU&w=600&h=360]Video by Reuters via YouTube.
As a side note, there also has been a mini scandal involving The Nation and a picture where the crowed number has been allegedly multiplied with the help of photoshop. Even though The Nation insists the picture is untouched, looking at the provided hi-res version still leave me unconvinced.
Gloves Are Off Once Again As Police Failed to Arrest Red Shirt Leader, Military Takes Over Operation
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HV7PrHi_oMU&w=600&h=360]Video by Asian Correspondent via YouTube After a few days of pause during the Songkran holidays, the gloves are off again between the red shirts and the security forces.
We used to the Thai police for being not the most effective force in the world and today's 'skillful' display of 'determination' would have been even better executed by Carey Mahoney's squad.
The Nation thankfully already has written about the Schadenfreude inducing events of today.
Arisman Pongruangrong and other red-shirt leaders on a wanted list could not be apprehended when they were in full public view in the middle of the city, so what convinced Thai police that they could catch them by storming a hotel that once belonged to Thaksin Shinawatra? (...)
Not to mention that two senior officers were taken by the red mob from the hotel to the Rajprasong rally site to "guarantee" the escapees' safe return. How come what was supposed to be a pre-dawn sting operation ended with Arisman staging the escape just before 10am and mobs accompanying all the police targets back to Rajprasong at noon? (...)
The operation reportedly started at 3am, with stake-out forces stationing themselves near the hotel's entrances and exits, with a few disguising themselves as guests. Problem was, nobody knew for sure which rooms the targets - Arisman, Suporn Attawong, Payap Panket and Jeng Dokjik - were staying in. The four reportedly arrived at the hotel at around 4am.
Then around 6am another group of officers, purportedly working for an assistant police chief, arrived. One of them then committed a grave blunder by asking the hotel reception for house keys that could open all suspicious rooms.
That apparently did it. Phone calls must have been made by certain staff members and within minutes red shirts living nearby were gathering at the hotel. By the time the two groups of officers became aware of each other's presence, the hotel was crawling with red shirts. (...)
The police called their superiors and requested commando reinforcements. Through all these hectic developments, the hotel staff managed to buy time and kept the house keys away from the now restless, and pretty much clueless, officers.
When the policemen finally got hold of the keys, Arisman was already playing a Mission Impossible hero, albeit with some difficulty due to his weight. His face was white and he appeared disoriented once he dropped himself to safety, into numerous red hands waiting to grab him on the ground.
"An embarrassing fiasco for govt", The Nation, April 16, 2010
Arisman Pongruengrong, a former singer turned activist, is one of the more radical persons inside the red shirt movement and is also believed to have stirred up the emotions at the storm onto the parliament, which then triggered the state of emergency.
It didn't take long after the botched arrest attempt for the red shirts to take offense in this and soon after that Arisman appeared on stage and more or less declared open season on prime minister Abhisit.
Speaking of Abhisit, he has made his first public appearance after days of suspicious absence and his response to the embarrassment was somehow unprecedented.
Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, speaking in a special television broadcast on all stations, said Gen. Anupong Paochinda would take charge of the peacekeeping force meant to prevent violence by red-shirted protesters who are seeking to topple his government.
"A decision has been made to make the command line more effective and swifter," Abhisit said. "Therefore I have made an order to change the person in charge to Anupong, the army commander."
Anupong's appointment sends a signal that Abhisit is willing to raise the stakes in his standoff with the tens of thousands of mostly rural protesters camping in the Thai capital by letting the army take direct charge of security. Thai media have reported widely that junior commanders are itching to move against the protesters.
"Thai army chief takes charge of restoring order", by Associated Press, April 16, 2010
Bangkok Pundit has more quotes and also analyses what this move could mean for the next few days.
Foreign Minister Kasit Goes Berserk, Suspects Worldwide Pro-Thaksin Conspiracy UPDATE Audio posted
UPDATE: The John Hopkins University, where the talk was held, has posted the full audio of Kasit's speech. We haven't been talking about Thaksin for a while, have we? Well, Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya thinks so as well and has used the next best opportunity in front of a microphone to lash out against Thaksin and everyone that helps him - which is in his opinion almost the whole world. AFP summarizes what must have been some astonishing quotes (to be enjoyed in all it's entirety for entertainment purposes).
Thailand's Foreign Minister lashed out at the international community Monday for failing to take action against fugitive ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra, whom he blamed for the country's political unrest.
"Everyone is washing their hands but he is a bloody terrorist," said Kasit Piromya, citing countries such as Russia and Germany for turning a blind eye over Thaksin's corruption conviction and allowing him in.
He also cited Dubai, which the billionaire Thaksin had reportedly used as a longtime base after being overthrown in a military coup in 2006, as well as Nicaragua and Montenegro, both of which he recently visited.
"There is this act of interference by third countries -- how can the Russians allow him there for two days or the Germans before that?"
"Everyone is playing naive, closing their eyes and so on, simply because he was once an elected leader," Kasit said.
He likened Thaksin to an Al-Qaeda terrorist and past "elected" leaders such as Adolf Hitler, Joseph Stalin and Benito Mussolini.
"Hitler was elected, Mussolini was elected, even Stalin could say that he was elected also but what did they do to their very society? This is the question," the top Thai diplomat said at a meeting with a small group of reporters and think tank heads.
Kasit, in Washington attending a landmark nuclear summit called by President Barack Obama, accused Thaksin of orchestrating demonstrations by his so-called Red Shirt supporters last week that led to 21 deaths in the bloodiest political unrest in 18 years.
The 60-year-old Thaksin exiled himself to avoid imprisonment on a 2008 corruption conviction and occasionally addresses the Red Shirts through Internet video links.
Kasit lamented that Thailand was "not getting any international cooperation at all" over Thaksin's case, saying even Interpol "just simply refused to work with us." (...)
While the world demanded for more democracy in Thailand, it "allows Thaksin to run loose as if nothing happens," he said.
Kasit called on the Obama administration to prod the Red Shirts to come to the negotiating table. The United States and Thailand are treaty allies.
"Thai FM slams international community over crisis", AFP, April 13, 2010
Good Lord, where do I even start?
It is an open secret that the Thai Ministry of Foreign Affairs' unofficial top priority is to hunt down Thaksin wherever in the world he pops up. And since he seems to travel anywhere without any apparent problems, one might understand Kasit's outburst if (in his opinion) the one man who is solely to be blamed for a the big political mess that has happened in over the last five years cannot be apprehended and even seems to get international assistance.
I have previously blogged about Thaksin's stay in Germany and also mentioned his trip to Montenegro. Since then, Thaksin has claimed to have been in Russia as well. Additionally the Foreign Ministry has stated that he was in Sweden before that. But it should be noted that they got it wrong before when they suspected Thaksin to be expelled from UAE and to have flown to Siem Reap when the most recent red shirts protest begun.
It is astonishing how a branch of the government, or even a single person, can be so morbidly obsessed with one person desperately trying to hunt him down. So desperate that Kasit thinks he can afford to alienate nearly everybody.
As for the Hitler-Mussolini-Stalin-comparison and Kasit's claim that the most notorious figures in history were 'elected' into power, a simple look into Wikipedia might have saved him from this spectacular claim. Mussolini rose to power through intimidation of public authorities and political opponents with a large mob until he was appointed to lead the country by the king, Stalin was able to push out Lenin and later his own closest allies away from power, and even though Hitler's nazi party has won at the ballots, he was appointed Chancellor in hope by his coalition partners to be contained with a framework of conservative cabinet ministers - we all know how well that worked.
And how got Abhisit to power, again?
P.S.: Kasit also had some interesting quotes on another subject I will not discuss here.
What Else? No. 1 - Zero Rupees Note Edition
"What Else?" is a regular look at all the other things that happened in Thailand, Germany, on the web and in between.
After a very long court verdict, let's look what's left of this week.
An Indian NGO called the "5th Pillar" have the high aim of fighting corruption (sounds familiar, eh?). They hope achieve this with these zero rupee bank notes (pictured above) in case some higher authority wants to make some extra money on your expense. Is this a good way to fight corruption? Is this an example applicable to Thailand? And would you get away fast enough when the cops realize the round zero(s) on the note?
Absolutely Bangkok, a Thai blog with a very distinct voice on current affairs, recently found his own site being blocked by a Thai ISP. Thankfully, it is already unblocked and he has the full story how it happened. The gist is, that nearly everyone can report to a service called Thaihotline.org, set up by the Thai ISPs, anything that could be illegal. Unfortunately, what is illegal though is in many cases not clearly defined.
American journalist Patrick Winn has written a very interesting geopolitical story about Thailand's joint military exercises with both the US and China.
Remember when the PAD (also known as the yellow shirts) have seized the two airports in Bangkok and have sieged the Government's House back in 2008? And have you also wondered if anybody has been prosecuted by now? Well, so far nothing has happened! In fact, the prosecution has postponed the indictment of the nine PAD leader for the 8th (!) time since November 2008. Why? Well, read here...
And now to our "WTF?! of the Week" where I 'honor' stories, persons or anything that makes us initially shout those three letters of confusion. This week it's about Khunying Dr. Pornthip Rojanasunand, Director of the Central Institute of Forensic Science, Ministry of Justice and probably the most famous forensic pathologist even before CSI. She is an advocate for forensic evidence, especially when the police haven't done their work again or are trying to cover their own wrongdoings. So, a recent survey by Reader's Digest Thailand has decided today that - drum roll, please - Dr. Pornthip is the most trustworthy person in Thailand! So far, so unsurprising given her good public image (and her flamboyant hair). But it is astonishing that a scientific, who believes in scientific evidence, is defending the use of the GT200, the 'bomb detector' which is now scientifically proven to be nothing but a bogus dowsing rod! To be fair though, the survey was done in October last year - way before the GT200 was on anybody's mind. But I doubt she'd be that popular if the survey would be held now. Nevertheless, the headline was worthy enough for the first ever "WTF?! of the Week"!
Finally, a brilliant piece yet again by Not The Nation, the Thai counterpart to The Onion. This article on Thai journalism bears more truth than some could handle - especially for a certain editor at The Nation: "Thai Media Warns Of Thaksin-Less Doomsday For Journalism"
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On this occasion, I'd like to thank all readers of this blog for your feedback, your comments and your retweets. It's been a great start for this blog and I hope this will only get better - there won't be a short supply of stories after all! Cheers, everybody!
"Thailand: Warring Colours" - A Beginner's Guide to the Thai Political Crisis
In December 2009 Al Jazeera English have aired a 45-minute long documentary "Thailand: Warring Colours" about the ongoing political crisis. I think it does a good job summarizing the key moments and issues that are plaguing the country for years. Some newsmakers like Prime Minister Abhisit Vejajiva and well, you-know-who are being interviewed as well as activists from both colors and many other voices. This is a beginner's guide for understanding the current political situation. [youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O2Gmt7dvOWs&w=600&h=360]
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ZLLSE-VFe4&w=600&h=360]
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0JmCjwZQHJk&w=600&h=360]
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b24xix2bxaI&w=600&h=360]
For a comparison, here's my take summarizing the issue back in September 2009 on the third anniversary of the military coup of 2006 in a webcast when I was working with Asia News Network.
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kgOBRHum800&w=600&h=360]