UPDATED Do 'Watermelon Soldiers' Cause Split in the Thai Military?

Anasuya Sanyal, Channel News Asia's Bangkok correspondent, has reported on the apparent divisions inside the security forces. The transcript can be found here, including the link to the video of her report.

The term 'watermelon soldiers' may sound cute, but it's a phenomenon that's increasingly dangerous for the Thai military. It refers to soldiers who wear green on the outside but harbour Red Shirt sympathies on the inside."

Those influences have contributed to failure to bring an end to the six-week long protest that has roiled the Thai capital.

The situation turned violent when masked gunmen coolly opened fire on the Thai army last Saturday, taking out three officers and injuring scores of others, before a truce was called.

Said Thai Army Spokesman, Colonel Sansern Kaewkwamnerd, "Of course soldiers have their own political views. But when they are on duty, they are acting on behalf of the army. They cannot disobey orders.

"However, we are trying to examine whether any officers leaked intelligence to violent Red Shirt protesters. I believe every officer understands his role. However, if we find any, they will be punished accordingly."

Military law prohibits unauthorised personnel from giving out any information to the media.

But Thailand's most famous rogue officer, Major General Khattiya Sawadipol, "Seh Daeng", has come to epitomise the fissures in the military establishment.

And as a Red Shirt supporter, he explains the sentiment among the Kingdom's rank and file, and common origins and a similar socio-economic background make for mutual understanding.

"The military is completely red, excluding the top commanders. The army could disintegrate at any moment, but chain of command and military discipline is holding it together for now. But [rank and file soldiers] see their parents are in the protest, so their loyalty to the military is in question," said Major General Khattiya.

A week before Saturday's deadly clashes, there were many displays of friendship between the Red Shirt protesters and those sent to disperse them.

"'Watermelon soldiers' increasingly dangerous for Thai military", by Anasuya Sanyal, Channel News Asia, April 16, 2010

The video also shows some scenes of police forces showing their sympathy to the red shirts. The issue of security forces fraternizing with the protestors has been mentioned here before.

There's also still the question of a 'third force' that has fired into the crowd last Saturday. There have been hints to gunmen dressing in black roaming through the chaos, like this picture showing a masked man with an AK-47. The aforementioned Major General Khattiya alias Sae Daeng has also hinted that "Ronin warriors" were firing grenades at the soldiers. Also one reporter at The Nation thinks it was "not a botched anti-riot operation nor a lynching mob gone berserk. It was a head-on skirmish between two well-trained armed forces - one in fatigues and another in black. The red shirts were just props in the battlefield." Prachatai features an account of an unnamed soldier during the clashes, basically describing being overwhelmed in the chaos.

Al Jazeera English has also a report on the armed forces' role, with mentions of the rumored divisions and the military spokesman denying them.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZZRk0sTJww&playnext_from=TL&videos=JDNiqT-18JU&w=600&h=360]

One does not want to imagine what would happen if the military starts turning onto each other, if they haven't already begun.

UPDATE: Shawn Crispin has also written a thorough analysis on this topic at Asia Times. It also makes references to the seemingly random grenade attacks in recent weeks.

Al Jazeera English's "Inside Story: Thailand on the edge"

Al Jazeera English is in my opinion one of very few international media organizations that has regular and well-balanced coverage on the ongoing Thai political crisis in recent years (see their 45-minute special). So in a very timely fashion they aired today a new edition of Inside Story about the recent developments in Thailand again, hosted by Hamish Macdonald. He is joined later by a panel consisting of UDD international spokesman Sean Boonpracong, Pravit Rojanaphruk, political editor at The Nation ("a pro-government newspaper" as noted by the host) and Dr. Tim Forsyth from the London School of Economics. [youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1_91YdFJtIc&playnext_from=TL&videos=Mw09ilO9Ow0&w=600&h=360]

What I particularly like is the description of the yellow and red shirts that goes a bit more beyond the usual "red=Thaksin-supporters and yellow=royalists"-narrative.

Already a few weeks ago, when the red shirts were symbolically spilling blood onto the streets and gates, they aired another Inside Story on Thailand with nearly the same panel, except that time they were joined by Supong Limtanakool of Bangkok University.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ERYhkA9rjvI&feature=related&w=600&h=360]

No End in Sight - Some Personal Thoughts

Democracy Monument draped in red cloth (Picture courtesy of @Ohochita)

I was glued to my computer, scrambling through websites, Twitter messages and live streams, trying to get the latest updates on what is happening in Bangkok at the very moment. Reports of violent clashes, gunshots and absolute chaos were spreading from the capital. Next to my desk was the television set to the news channels, either struggling to give a clear overview of what is going on or (in case of German TV news) just blubbering sheer nonsense. To see this all unfolding from a very far distance in an office chair in Germany was utterly frustrating. This was in April 2009 during the Songkran riots.

Fast-forward to April 2010, same chair, same emotions.

Both sides, government forces and red shirt protesters, were showing hardly any sign of giving in. In fact, defiance on both sides was growing more and more each day. With each successful action of the red shirts, such as the storming on the parliament compound or at the satellite TV station, their confidence grew. In the beginning though it appeared the government had the upper hand, with their non-violence tactic catching the red shirt leaders off guard and thus leading them to pointless ad-hoc stunts (like the now infamous symbolic blood spilling). But with each day the red shirts were roaming and occupying the streets of Bangkok, the government was pushed with its back against the wall more and more.

All the more vigorous were the violent clashes on Saturday, killing 21 people and injuring over 850. There is no other way to describe the crackdown as a catastrophic failure. It was a chaotic mess, with soldiers and red shirts fighting each other, a mysterious 'third force' also contributing to the casualties and reporters, civilians and tourists caught in the crossfire - this was worse than last year! Last Saturday marks yet another dark moment in the recent history of this country.

What many like to neglect is that the red shirt movement is now more than just a proxy mob of Thaksin, not just a tool of anyone to overthrow the current government. It is a true unavoidable force in Thai politics with legitimate claims, with a sound political consciousness that is now haunting the political elites and bureaucrats for failing to recognize the sign of times. The problems cannot be solely linked back to Thaksin (as he is trying to promote himself as the beacon of freedom and democracy, while there is no doubt that he is not) - it is a collective failure!

When the situation was calming down in Bangkok and the first moments for me to cool down from the hours of constant information bombardment came by, I had not the feeling of horror or shock, but sheer frustration. Frustration about the inevitable fallout, about the at times idiotic coverage (or even the lack thereof) by some 'news programs' again, about the helplessness over the situation, but mostly about that we are not back to the status quo of four weeks ago - we are now even further away from it!

Both sides are even more defiant than before, even less unwilling to give in, even less likely are the chances for any peaceful, non-violent and political way to end this stalemate. To see Thailand going backwards each day with no end in sight is just discouraging - the distance from where I'm witness this happening does not make a difference anymore, it is equally frustrating.

Note: This commentary was written shortly during the aftermath of the violent clashes, which explains the more emotional tone of this article. That are, after all, my personal thoughts.

The Crackdown Has Begun UPDATE 21 killed, 858 injured

After a whole month of protests, it appears that the government is cracking down on the red shirts. The situation is currently very hard to overlook from here with many unconfirmed and unvetted information coming in. Nearly all TV channels in Thailand are in news blackout mode as they are airing the usual fluffy nonsense instead of live pictures from the scene.

So far, no serious injuries or casualties has been reported. There are several hot spots around Bangkok. The army has been using rubber bullets and also fired warning shots in the air. BTS Skytrain has suspended it's service.

To keep up with latest, Bangkok Pundit has a live blog, New Mandala has an open thread, Nick Koleszar of media140 has posted links to livestreams of Thai TV news.

I will try to update live on Twitter (@Saksith) as the events are unfolding.

UPDATE (Sunday, 2.00 PM CEST):

The Nation has reported that the number of deaths and injured has risen to 21 and 858 respectively.

UPDATE 7 (10.30 PM CEST): My last update for today. Stay safe out there!

Cover of The Nation, April 11, 2010

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tL0s7ADT11A&playnext_from=TL&videos=nVPKhzE_I10&w=600&h=360]Video by Associated Press

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIR6XqQWz_M&feature=channel&w=600&h=360]Video by Al Jazeera English

The Nation has the most recent numbers of deaths and injured. Be also sure to read the whole article for details.

Eleven people were reported to have died and 678 injured from clashes between security forces and red-shirt demonstrators in different parts of the capital, National Emergency Centre's director Phetpong Kamchornkijakarn said late last night.

He said of the casualties, nine were civilians and two were soldiers. Of the civilians killed, eight were red-shirt protesters, while the ninth was a Japanese man who worked as a photographer for Thomson-Reuters.

"11 dead, 678 injured in Bangkok clashes", The Nation, April 11, 2010

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva last night expressed sorrow for the deaths following clashes between soldiers and protesters.

In his speech broadcast at 11.25 pm, Abhisit said he and his government still have the duty to ease the situation and restore peace in the country. "I promise the government will carry out [the task] with transparency, fairly and in a way that benefits the country and the people," he said. (...)

He said there must be independent investigation to be conducted by experts to determine the causes of deaths. "Both sides should not accuse each other of causing the losses."

"PM mourns loss of lives", The Nation, April 11, 2010

UPDATE  6 (5.30 PM CEST):

Four civilians and four soldiers were killed in clashes between the army and red shirt protesters, the Bangkok deputy governor said on Saturday without giving details.

Deputy governor of Bangkok Malinee Sukavrejworakit also said 242 people were wounded.

"Thai "red shirt" clashes kill eight - Bangkok governor", Reuters, April 10, 2010

UPDATE 5 (4.40 PM CEST):

The first casualties are being reported on both sides. Emergency medical services 5 are being reportedly killed and 300 injured The red shirts at the Rajprasong stage have shown bodies wrapped in Thai flag.

Additionally the red shirt leaders have reported that a Japanese Reuters reporter named Huroyuki Muramoto has been killed with a shot wound to the stomach.

Both army and red shirts have retreated from the Kok Wua intersection, as it is reported secretary-general Korbsak Sabhavasu will try to contact the red shirt leaders for negotiating talks.

UPDATE 4 (3.55 PM CEST):

The situation at Kok Wua intersection near Khao San Road is seriously deteriorating by the minute as we speak. TV pictures show massive riots, smoke and fire. Injuries on both sides are being reported.

UPDATE 3 (3.05 PM CEST):

Al Jazeera English reports that clashes have reignited as red shirts have hurled petrol bombs at police and military forces. Other reports suggest that it is at Kok Woa intersection. Also, the area near the famous Khao San Road was jammed packed with red shirts. Right now the police has blocked off Khao San Road as gunshots were heard around the area.

The large bulk of the red shirt protest are still at Rajaprasong Intersection. A Twitterer has captured a long line of red shirts queuing up for free food.

Meanwhile, the name of the injured foreign journalist is Vinai Dithajon, a photographer for ONASIA. AP Photographer Thanyarat Doksone (@babyfishie on Twitter) has talked to him and "He's safe. The 'bullet' has been removed from his calf." Reports are conflicting wether the bullet is real one or 'just' a rubber bullet.

UPDATE 2 (2.10 PM CEST):

The situation appears to cool down at the moment as the security forces have backed off from the Ploen Chit area.

There were reports of helicopters throwing tear gas into the crowd of protestors around the area at Phan Fah and Rajadamnoen Road (see eyewitness picture from earlier below).

At least 135 people, including dozens of soldiers and police, were wounded in the violence near the Phan Fah bridge and Rajdumnoen Road, a red shirt base near government buildings and the regional U.N. headquarters.

(...) At least five people suffered gunshot wounds near Phan Fah bridge, including a freelance photographer shot in the stomach, hospital officials said. The injuries were believed to be from rubber bullets.

"Thai troops open fire, move in on "red shirts"", Reuters, April 10, 2010

About 600 Thai "red shirt" protesters broke into a local government office in the northeast city of Udon Thani, angry at a crackdown on their movement in the capital, local television said.

Earlier, hundreds of red shirts forced their way into the governor's office compound in the northern city of Chiang Mai.

In Udon Thani, the protesters broke through the gates, cut barbed wire, removed barricades and entered the compound of the town hall, local television said.

The red shirts had vowed that they would besiege governors' offices in the provinces if there was a crackdown on their one-month-old protest in the capital for fresh elections. (...)

"Thai red shirts protest in second province", Reuters, April 10, 2010

UPDATE 1 (12.15 PM CEST):

Government spokesman Panitan and army spokesman Col. Sansern just finished addressing the public about the current situation. Col. Sansern said that the armed forces were only shooting into the air to disperse the crowd and two soldiers were injured.

A ThaiPBS reporter showed that their cars have been hit by a stray bullet.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SwP8-YFPY1k&w=600&h=360]

There have been reports that a foreign, possibly American, reporter has been injured by a bullet. Pantip forums has a screenshot from PTV showing the man being treated.

Teargas at Khok Wua intersection. (Picture by @legalnomads)

Red Shirts Storm Satellite Station as Questions About Army's Loyalty Arise

(Picture by @SaiManasvee)

First it was taken off air, then back on, and now it is off air again.

Today's action saw yet another escalation in the increasing fierce anti-government protests of the red shirts as they stormed a television satellite compound in the North of Bangkok in order to get their television People's Channel back on air again.

People's Channel (PTV) was founded by former executives of the now disbanded Thai Rak Thai party of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, whose involvement and financial support is being regularly denied. This channel acts in the same way as a mouthpiece for the red shirt protesters as it does for the yellow shirts with their channel ASTV. Almost non-stop they are broadcasting the happenings on the rally stages and were also very quick to show the events surrounding the actions unfolding, such as the bizarre blood stunt.

It was hardly surprising that under the state of emergency decree this channel was about to be taken off air, as much hardly surprising as the red shirts were going to try to regain control at the aforementioned satellite. What was surprising though were the scenes on the ground as the protesters clashed with military and police.

Hurling rocks and Molotov cocktails, the protesters breached the barbed-wire perimeter of Thaicom Public Co. Ltd. within minutes, but did not enter the main building. As they moved into the compound, security forces threw tear gas canisters and fired water cannons but then quickly retreated into the main building as thousands of protesters swarmed around it. (...)

After the clash, some security forces were seen throwing down their shields and riot gear and shaking hands with the protesters. In recent weeks, police have frequently shown sympathy with the protesters and analysts say the security forces, especially the police, are split in their loyalties, making it difficult for the government to enforce its orders.

The Red Shirts offered water to soldiers and police, and showed reporters a small cache of weapons, including M-16 assault rifles, they had seized from soldiers.

''We've got the upper hand. But we no longer can claim we are peaceful,'' said Thep Jitra, one of the protesters. ''I suppose (those who broke into compound) have been emotionally repressed for so long. I'm sure this is such a release for them. This is payback time.''

"Thai Protesters Storm Into TV Station", Associated Press via The New York Times, April 9, 2010

The incidents today yet again poses the question about the (for a lack of a better term) loyalty of the security forces. As mentioned in the article above, there have been scenes of sympathy with the red shirts. While this is in conformity with the non-confrontational stance of the government towards them (and so far mostly that was the case), there are doubts about on which side the armed forces are now, especially since the enforcement of the state of emergency has still not occurred yet.

Warangkana Chomchuen of NBC News raises the issue of so-called 'watermelon soldiers' within the ranks of the army.

Ever since that incident [Black May 1992], handling government protesters of any ideological stripe with force has become sensitive and the army doesn’t want to be a villain.

But many believe the army remains active behind the scenes and that the relationship between the military and politicians is inseparable. Especially since politicians help advance soldiers’ careers, and cordial relations with the government help smooth the way for budget allocations and weapons purchases.

In recent weeks, however, the term "watermelon soldiers" has been used to describe troops who wear green uniforms, but are sympathetic to the Red Shirts.

"Whose Side is the Thai Military On?", Warangkana Chomchuen, NBC News, April 9, 2010

The term 'watermelon soldiers' has been also mentioned by one of the red shirt leaders (cannot remember which one) earlier this week just shortly after the state of emergency has been declared, saying that many high-ranking officers are indeed 'watermelon soldiers' and will try to avoid to disperse the protesters.

Meanwhile, PTV has been yanked off the air again, as the red shirts left to returned to Bangkok and the army moved back in again. The cat and mouse game continues.

Further reading:

• Siam Report: Red Shirts Move to Take Back PTV
• The Big Picture (Boston.com): Unrest in Thailand (outstanding photo gallery)
• CNN: Video: 'Red Shirt' protestors storm TV compound

Foreigners at the Red Shirt Protest

The Nation ran an article today asking a few (western) foreigners participating in the red shirt protests.

An American appeared on the stage yesterday, despite the government's enforcement of the emergency decree. (...)

While on stage, he addressed the crowd in English, saying that the United States took a long time to establish democracy. "What you're doing is amazing and I hope you achieve it," he said.

"This is becoming a people's movement. The country has been divided in the last month and I am worried about the direction it is heading in," said Frank Klose, a German who has been living in Thailand for the past 20 years.

Klose, a resident of Bangkok and Ubon Ratchathani, added that it was his third time at the protests and he was hoping a dissolution of Parliament would help resolve the current chasm.

However, he admitted he was not too knowledgeable about Thai politics, and mainly came in support of his Thai wife, who is a strong activist.

A desire to see the dissolution of Parliament was shared by other foreigners present. (...)

"I am here to support freedom of speech, freedom of protest and corruption free elections. We should have a democracy without interference like in the US," added the dual American and Canadian citizen, who has been living in Bangkok for 15 years and asked to remain anonymous.

"Foreigners joining the rally", by PierLuc Gagnon, The Nation, April 9, 2010

Least to say that these soundbites do in no way represent the whole movement and it is probably impossible to pick out all westerners in the crowd. But I can see the red shirts trying to gain some credibility endorsement by the mere presence of western foreigners at the rally site (like with everything gains some prestige with a token farang standing at hand, right?) - it can't hurt.

In comparison The Irrawaddy has written back in early March that the government has warned Thai employers to bring migrant workers to the red shirt protest.

Thailand's Ministry of Labor warned Thai employers not to bring any migrant workers to join ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra's supporters, who are scheduled to launch a major anti-government protest in Bangkok this weekend.

The warning was made by Phaitoon Kaewthong, Thailand's minister of labor, after reports circulated suggesting that Thaksin supporters known as Redshirts will bring laborers including foreign migrant workers to join the Redshirt protest, according to a statement released by the Ministry of Labor on Monday.

In a written statement sent to The Irrawaddy on Monday, Andy Hall, director of the Bangkok-based Human Rights and Development Foundation's migrant justice program said: “If migrants were to attend this red-shirt rally, it would surely be because they were forced to attend by their employers, as we saw with the previous red and yellow shirt rallies in Thailand.”

“If it is not enough to exploit migrants economically and physically, now they are being exploited politically by both sides of the political conflict,” said Hall.

"No Migrants at Redshirt Rally", by Saw Yan Naing, The Irrawaddy, March 8, 2010

Bangkok Pundit has blogged about this issue as well, where migrant workers and their Thai employers were threatened with hefty fines, and already back in November 2009, citing deputy prime minister Suthep Thuagsuban's rationale on why foreigners should not protest with the red shirts.

Well, so says Deputy Prime Minister Suthep in an interview with Matichon which BP has summarized below:

Suthep stated that there were reports of others being brought in to protest against Abhisit on his trip to Chiang Mai on November 28. Suthep warns the protest letters not to allow others who are not Thais to protest because it is not possible to communicate with such people* (อย่าปล่อยให้กลุ่มผู้ชุมนุมที่ไม่ใช่คนไทยมาร่วมชุมนุม เพราะพูดกันไม่รู้เรื่อง) and they cannot be controlled (และไม่สามารถควบคุมได้). They may also create problems (คนพวกนี้อาจจะเข้ามาสร้างปัญหา).

Suthep also wanted to pass a message onto non-Thais that peaceful protests under the constitution was limited to Thais only. Therefore, if a foreigner protests, they have broken the law.

*edited this slightly.

"Non-Thais to protest with the reds", Bangkok Pundit, November 23, 2009

Suthep definitely had Burmese, Lao, Cambodian or any other Asian migrant workers in mind when telling foreigners not to meddle with Thai politics (since we can take care of ourselves very well, right?). So what about the farang red shirts? Is it also hard to communicate with them? And do these regulations apply to them and legal actions will be taken against them as well?

Further reading:

• Red Shirt Supporters in Germany

Political Websites Blocked / News Summary for Thursday

Let's get one thing out of the way first: there has been not crackdown or any violence yet! Even though the situation is so far the same, more than ever there has been a state of uncertainty. Under the state of emergency decree the government has blocked 36 political websites, mostly supportive to the red shirts. Among the blocked sites is also Prachatai (it has now changed it's domain from com to net and it appears to work). Needless to say, there have been negative reactions. Also banned is the red shirt's own television station. The legal basis for this crackdown is this passage from the state of emergency decree:

2.  Prohibit the release of news, distribution or dissemination of newspapers, publications or any means of communications containing content which may cause fear amongst the public or is intended to distort information leading to misunderstanding of the emergency situation to the extent of affecting the security of the state or public order or the good morals of the people throughout the Kingdom;

"State of emergency declared in Bangkok UPDATE Additional regulations censorship and ban on political gatherings", Bangkok Pundit, April 8, 2010

The other major developments so far are: Prime minister Abhisit Veijajiva has cancelled his trip to the ASEAN summit in Han Noi, an arrest warrant against the red shirt leaders (including Arisman) who let the situation at the parliament escalate under their watch, and by the time of writing this blog post the red shirts will march again on Friday, but it is not known where.

Also as a side note.

The Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) has cancelled all of its Songkran activities in the wake of intensifying redshirt rallies and the state of emergency.

"BMA cancels all its Songkran events", The Nation, April 9, 2010

(Caution: Sarcasm!) Great! First the take away the malls, now another songkran is ruined! Thank you red shirts!

Further reading:

• Nirmal Ghosh (The Straits Times): Defiance at Red Rally
• Newley Purnell for CNNGo: State of emergency: What life is really like in Bangkok (good for visitors!)
• Richard Barrow: Is Bangkok Really Dangerous? (essential information for tourists)
• Patrick Winn (Global Post): Emergency in Bangkok's Gucci District

State of emergency declared in Bangkok as red shirts stormed parliament compound

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDv1jZnA9Qo&playnext_from=TL&videos=kUWoSM_cuI8&w=600&h=360]Prime minister Abhisit Veijajiva declaring state of emergency. Video by ThaiTVNews.blogspot.com The anti-government protests by the red shirts are now in a critical phase as the government of prime minister Abhisit Veijajiva declared a state of emergency today. This marks so far the most significant escalation in a series of incidents in the past few days where the red shirt have increased the pressure on the government to dissolve parliament.

Earlier today a group of thousands red shirts went to parliament today and were pushing at the gates. Moments later, the gates were flung open and a group of them stormed onto the compound. Nirmal Ghosh described what set off the protestors to storm the parliament:

Apparently two "bombs" which may have been teargas canisters, were lobbed into the Red Shirt crowd, or just found in the crowd. Neither of them exploded.

But the crowd became angry and egged on by Arisman Pongruengrong, managed to barge through the gate, scuffling past outnumbered police who re-formed just outside the entrance to the main building. Some opposition Puea Thai MPs then came out and asked the Red Shirts to leave, and there was some argument.

"High Noon at Thai Parliament", by Nirmal Ghosh, The Straits Times, April 7, 2010

The "bombs" Nirmal mentioned were supposed to be tear gears canisters. A Matichon reporter asked the police about the claims:

ช่วงเวลาเดียวกันกับที่กลุ่มผู้ชุมนุมได้ทลายประตูเหล็กเพื่อบุกมายังรัฐสภา จนทำให้เจ้าหน้าที่ตำรวจหลายนายล้มระเนระนาด ทำให้กระป๋องแก๊สน้ำตาหล่นออกจากขากางเกง  เป็นเหตุให้กลุ่มผู้ชุมนุมหยิบกระป๋องแก๊สน้ำตาไปให้นายอริสมันต์บนเวทีปราศรัยทันที โดยแก๊สน้ำตาทั้ง 2 กระป๋องยังไม่ได้ใช้งาน เห็นได้จากสลักยังไม่ดึงออก

At the same moment when the protestors were trying to slam open the metal gates to the compound, many police officers were knocked to the ground, causing the tear gas canisters to fall off their pants. The protestors then grabbed them and showed it to Mr. Arisman on the (mobile) stage. The two gas canisters were not set off yet, as the rings on it were not pulled yet.

"ลำดับเหตุการณ์ นาทีต่อนาที "เสื้อแดง" บุกรัฐสภา "สุเทพ" ตะกาย ฮ.หนี นปช.ใกล้ถึงตัว "ชวน"", Matichon, 7 April, 2010

While the reds were storming the ground of the parliament, MPs had to abort a session and flee to safety by climbing over fences, like deputy prime minister Suthep Thuagsuban, and were airlifted out of the compound. Matichon reports that he was accompanied by fellow MPs, one of them armed.

The leader of this group of red shirts today, former singer Arisman Pongruengrong, is well-known to be one of the more outspoken and radical figures in the movement. He was same leader of a group that rallied and eventually stormed the building of the Electoral Commission last weekend and was also involved in the red shirts' ambush on the ASEAN summit in Pattaya almost exactly one year ago - what happened then should still be on everybody's mind.

And like during the incident during the weekend, there were reports of fake reds stirring up trouble.

There were reportedly some agents provocateurs among the demonstrators. Some people wearing Red Shirts were relieved of pistols and bullets by the protesters’ own security teams. They were then handed over to police.

One of the Red Shirts' security personnel – a former policeman – was angry: "We found these weapons on people who were wearing red shirts but who don’t belong to us. So we want to know who they belong to and how did they end up on the parliament grounds? Someone is trying to shed a bad light on the Red Shirts and to incite violence."

"Thai prime minister declares state of emergency in Bangkok", Deutsche Welle, April 7, 2010

This escalation probably broke the camel's back as this happened then later in the evening:

Thailand's Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has declared a state of emergency in Bangkok amid escalating anti-government protests.

In a televised address, Mr Abhisit said the move - which gives sweeping new powers to the security forces to tackle protesters - would help restore order.

(...) This is the fourth state of emergency in the capital since 2008.

"Thailand PM declares state of emergency in Bangkok", BBC News, April 7, 2010

Mr Abhisit said a centre for solving the emergency situation had been set up, with Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban, who is in charge of security affairs, as director. The centre is empowered to take action under the emergency law and enforce various orders issued under the law.

"State of emergency declared", Bangkok Post, April 7, 2010

Bangkok Pundit has a very thorough analysis of the emergency decree and what the government can and cannot do.

The situation is yet again very tense as the government, stunned by today's actions, has turned up the heat on the protesters, a sign that their patience of diplomatic and careful handling of the red shirts is wearing thinner and thinner. The red shirts themselves showed shortly after the announcement no sign of dispersing and vowed to stay defiant. Even though a state of emergency is now declared, it is still an open question about how it will be enforced. Surely nobody wants a repeat of the Songkran riots of last year. So this also puts the spotlight on what the army will do. There are unconfirmed hints that they, with the coalition partners of the government, will abandon Abhisit.

Further reading:

• The Nation: Abhisit govt needs to be extremely careful
• Bangkok Post: Red shirts are going too far
• Al Jazeera English: Video: Bangkok placed under emergency

Red Shirts Paralyze Central Bangkok, Malls Closed

Picture of #redshirts in front of Central World looking south to the stage/intersection (Courtesy of Richard Barrow)

This is (yet) a(nother) make-or-break situation for the anti-government protests by the red shirts as they roamed the streets of Bangkok yet again at the beginning of their fourth week (and since we already have April, it makes the wordplay 'Red March' redundant). On Saturday tens of thousands have gathered and are now blocking the area around Rajprasong Intersection, a large commercial district in central Bangkok with the largest shopping malls (Central World, Siam Paragon, Siam Center, Siam Discovery, MBK, Central Chidlom etc.). Most of these malls have closed now and looking at the pictures coming out of there, the roads are now a sea of reds.

(Pictures courtesy of Richard Barrow)

One notable incident today was an 18-year old boy running his Porsche into a few parked red shirt motorcycles. AP has pointed out this interesting bit:

Police, who found a handgun in the car, later identified the driver as Thanat Thanakitamnuay, grandson of prominent businessman and former Deputy Prime Minister Amnuay Viravan.

"This is just what's wrong with this country. A rich man can drive into protesters and get away," said Sakda, a factory worker from suburban Bangkok. He declined to give his full name.

"Thai protesters occupy capital's commercial center", Associated Press via Washington Post, April 3, 2010

The quote is hardly surprising and the symbolism of this incident is also very obvious. As for the brat who has driven the Porsche, I predict that daddy will sort everything out for him. Shame for the car, though.

Meanwhile, the red shirts have vowed to stay overnight at the Rajprasong Intersection despite the government saying they have gone "too far" with the most recent blockade and also imposing a deadline for the protestors to leave at 9 PM Bangkok time. As of writing this blog post, the deadline has passed but police have announced that the negotiating talks with the red shirts failed as they refuse to leave (duh!). Police will try to talk again on Sunday morning.

It is the first time the red shirt protests have become a real inconvenience for the people of Bangkok as the protestors have now occupied the real heart of the city around Rajprasong Intersection, Rama I Road and Ploen Chit Road. The area is not only a busy commercial district with high-profile shopping centers, malls and hotels, but also the intersection of the two BTS lines (Siam), the location of the Erawan Shrine and thus, needless to say, a popular area among tourists. This weekend will be interesting to watch how long the patience of Bangkokians will last until the ongoing protest of the red shirt will start to backfire and lose support.

Further Reading:

• Bangkok Pundit: Another historic march for democracy
• media140: Images from Big Saturday in Bangkok – Part 1
• The Bangkok Bugle: Reds bring Bangkok to a standstill
• Richard Barrow (Thai-Blogs.com): Red Shirts Close Biggest Shopping Malls in Bangkok

The Nation is doing a 'Weng'

Dr. Weng Tojirakarn, red shirt and butt end of a terrible joke. (Screenshot by ThaiTVNews)

Many people tend to constantly bash the Thai press, sometimes rightfully so, sometimes not. Today is one of those days the former is the case. Cue to this piece by The Nation today...

You can bore your way to stardom. Just ask Weng Tojirakarn.

Two days of peace talks between the red shirts and the government have changed the eccentric doctor-turned-political-activist into an overnight celebrity, with teenagers now using his name as a slang and an online mockery game invented with his screaming face on it.

"Weng" now means "to confuse", "to bore" or even "to b***s***". If you hear a youngster say "Don't 'weng' me", it means, to put it politely, "stop talking nonsense".

"Doing a 'weng'", The Nation, March 31, 2010

Now, we could simply forget this little piece of irrelevant side trivia during a quite important political event if it wasn't for The Nation's editor Tulsathit Taptim, normally one of the more sane and decent journalists in the Kingdom. But he probably also got his funny bone tickled so hard that he couldn't stop tweeting about it all freaking day!

So dear The Nation newsroom, could you please stop with it? If not, go weng yourselfs!

Government-Red Shirt Talks, Round 2

Screenshot by ThaiTVNews

The second round of negotiating talks between the government and their opposing red shirts have seen an increased amount of feisty words, but still lacking any breakthrough deal. Though some progress was there, as seen again for everyone on nationwide TV and radio.

Thailand's prime minister offered Monday to dissolve parliament by the end of the year, but protesters demanding he step down did not immediately accept the compromise, which could have helped resolve the country's political crisis.

(...) The Red Shirts are calling on Abhisit to take action within 15 days, but seemed to express some willingness to extend their deadline.

There were no agreements reached Monday, and even the question of further meetings was left in limbo.

"The negotiations with the government have come to an end. But just how we'd move on from here, I would have to discuss this with my people," Jatuporn told reporters afterward.

(...) Monday's meeting, which lasted two hours, began on a more combative note than Sunday's initial talks, with representatives of the two sides pointing fingers and interrupting each other.

"The current climate is marred with tension and violent tendencies," said Abhisit, in what appeared to be a reference to several unexplained nonfatal grenade attacks around Bangkok in recent days. "One of my concerns is that, as prime minister, I need to create a favorable climate for elections. I have to also consider the opinions of the greater public — who do not necessarily align with particular colors."

(...) Abhisit said he wanted time for his government to carry out such tasks as passing a new budget. But taking action at the end of the year would also allow him to oversee the annual reshuffle of the military, which often interferes in politics. (...)

"Thai PM offers to dissolve parliament by year end", The Associated Press, March 29, 2010

Initially on of the main argument points is if the constitutions has to be amended before, as the reds demanded, or after an election, which the government favors partly for the reasons stated above. It is up the to the red shirts now, whether they still want the government to dissolve now or accept a greater timeframe that could be the end of the year or a few months earlier as mentioned by the reds during the talks. The next (possible) meeting will be on Thursday as PM Abhisit is out of the country.

Full video of Tuesday's talks can be watched here.

Red March on Bangkok - PM Abhisit Talks With Red Shirt Leaders UPDATED

UPDATE: Added two links, one with full video of the talk and Bangkok Pundit's summary of what's been said, down below. As we enter the third week of the anti-government protests by the red shirts, Sunday witnessed an interesting turn of events as prime minister Abhisit Vejjajva agreed to talk with the red shirt leaders, live on nationwide TV!

This is so far to a degree astonishing, since at the beginning of the day everything looked like another protest day with no concrete movement in any direction whatsoever. In the morning the red shirts have rallied at the 11th infantry regiment (again), where PM Abhisit resides since the start of the protests. Abhisit himself was not present at the military base, who hosted his weekly TV show from a different location, saying he would "not bow to ultimatums." But then, about two hours later...

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva is ready to hold negotiations with representatives of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship, and his secretary-general Korbsak Sabhavasu is coordinating with the UDD to make the necessary arrangements, PM's Office Minister Sathit Wongnongtoey said in a televised statement on Sunday morning.

The decision came as a large number of red-shirt protesters were massing outside the 11th Infantry Regiment camp where Mr Abhisit has been staying for the past two weeks since the rally began.

Mr Sathit said the government wants the situation in the country to return to normal as soon as possible.

(...) Mr Korbsak said the mass gathering of red shirts in front of the 11th Infantry Division camp was considered by the prime minister as a threat and intimidation. He said the withdrawal of the red shirts would improve the climate.

On Sunday morning, the UDD gave the prime minister until 10.15am to arrange the talks.  Soon after this, Mr Sathit appeared on television to tell the public of the latest developments.

"Govt, reds edge towards talks", Bangkok Post, March 28, 2010

Thanong Khanthong of The Nation (yes, that bloke!) had his very own theory even before the announcement.

Gen Prawit Wongsuwan, the defence minister, and Gen Anupong Paochinda warned Abhisit that he has to step forward to hold talks with the Red Shirts. Otherwise, the Military would abandon their support of the Abhisit government and the Coalition would be asked to form a new government with Pheu Thai Party as a core.

The prime minister must have felt that he is being forced into the corner. (...) The Democrats' bargaining power appears to be eroding. The soldiers, who come out of the barracks under the Internal Security Act, are getting tired and feeling very edgy. If the Red Shirts provoke the Military further, there could be accidental shooting by one of the soldiers. The Military are afraid that if their soldiers were to shoot the Red Shirts first, they and the government would immediately lose legitimacy.

"Abhisit Is Being Forced Into the Corner", by Thanong Khanthong, Nation Blog, March 28, 2010

At 4 PM in the afternoon both sides met at a neutral location, the King Prajadhipok’s Institute, an educational center on the outskirts of Bangkok. Given the very sudden nature of the events, some negotiations preluded the talks. The government side was represented by prime minister Abhisit, secretary-general Korbsak Sabhavasu and Democrat Party executive Chamni Sakdiset. For the red shirts Veera Musikhapong, Jatuporn Prompan and Weng Tojirakarn sat at the table.

After three hours of calm talks, both sides agreed to postpone until Monday at the same time. Overall this talk laid the fundamental arguments of both sides. It cannot be expected that a breakthrough deal would occur right at the first meeting, but the fact that both sides were able to sit down and make their points clear to everybody is encouraging. Bangkok Post has written a quick summary of the talking points.

The biggest surprise for me then was that the entire talk was televised on national TV, one of the pre-talk demands by the red shirts. Almost all free-tv channels broadcasted the meeting live and even though I can imagine that many people (read: not politically interested) simply changed channels or switched off, the availability of transparency during such an important turning point is no doubt a good thing. The cameras might have led the participants to leave any hostility and polemics at the door. Also, as an analyst on ThaiPBS said, it gave supporters of the red shirts and yellow shirts (who have been very quiet during the past weeks) to hear the central points of both sides, since they tend to watch and listen to media organizations of their own peer. (The Christian Science Monitor has written a piece about partiality in Thai media.)

Where are we now? From a factual standpoint we moved nowhere! The deadlock between both fractions has hardly loosen, no resolutions were made during the first talk and the central demands stayed the same. In fact Jatuporn, one of the red shirt leaders at the table, gave Abhisit two weeks time to consider dissolving the house and later in the evening on the rally stage declared that there'll be just a 'yes' or a 'no'. This reduces the talk on Monday to a do-or-die situation. A walkout or any similar acts by the red shirt tomorrow would swiftly destroy any momentum. But what we can gain from Sunday's landmark talks is that these people are ready to sit down and discuss why we got into the political mess in the first place. A quick solution is still far, far away but in these tense times, it's the little things that count.

Further Reading:

• Tulsathit Taptim (The Nation): A Glimmer of Hope
• BBC News: Thailand PM opens negotiations with Red-Shirts
• ThaiTVNews: Full video of the talks
• Bangkok Pundit: What was said at the government-red shirt talks?

Red March on Bangkok - Week Two Recap

It's been two weeks since the red shirts have been protesting in Bangkok and despite the noise there's still no end in sight, let alone a solution of the central problems they were protesting in the first place. The last seven days have been considerably quieter on the protest front, with numbers dwindling down to just a few thousands during the week - but it was expected by the protest leaders, as one of them said that the protesters, mostly from the distant provinces, were "rotating". Also the volume of the protests has decreased. After the still more than questionable blood stunt of last week the most notable act was a mass hair-cut of the protestors. As a side note, the government has extended the Internal Security Act for another seven days.

Another incident occurred on Wednesday, when parliament has been barricaded prior to a session. However, the fortification has backfired as MPs had to walk the rest of the way to parliament building and about 100 MPs of the opposition Puea Thai Party have boycotted and seized the opportunity to lament the barricade as a metaphor for the current political situation.

On Saturday the Red Shirts have originally planned a large motorcycle caravan roaming around the capital, but it has been cancelled the day before. The Nation has cited various reasons for the cancellation including:

A red-shirt source said the plan of marching had been opposed by several protest leaders, who agreed it would expose the red shirts to organised incidents by the government or a third party.

The source also said another march would cause severe traffic congestion at a time when there some important events were being held in Bangkok, such as the Inter-Parliamentary Union assembly and the National Book Fair, in addition to the entrance exam for high-school students.

The protest leaders yesterday also accused the government of assembling their supporters from communities in Bangkok to pressure the protesting red shirts.

"Red shirts call off plan for march today", The Nation, March 27, 2010

Instead, the Red Shirts were rallying to various spots in the city, mostly temples, in an effort to push out the military checkpoints stationed there. Nirmal Ghosh of the The Straits Times was at one of the locations and described the scene:

A truck with Red Shirt leaders Nattawut Saikuar and Dr Weng aboard, was parked directly in front of the gate. Nattawut was haranguing the soldiers but also offering them safe passage. A path had been cleared for the soldiers to leave, with the Reds’ black clad guards linking arms and keeping the mass of the crowd under control. But there was little tension, many were cheering and clapping. In the procession behind, trucks were belting out rousing Isan music and some were dancing. Big freshly minted white banners were printed with English and Thai slogans emphasising peace and non-violence.

A massive cheer went up when it was announced that the soldiers would leave. Peering through the gate I saw them loading their gear into trucks. Presently three trucks, one Humvee and one covered pickup lined up inside the gate, ready to roll. At around 1.30pm local time the gates were opened and the Humvee led the way out. The crowd was ecstatic. Some of the soldiers took pictures from the trucks.

"Thai version of people power?", by Nirmal Ghosh, The Straits Times, March 27, 2010

Similar scenes have been reported elsewhere. Encouraged by this small victory, the Red Shirts have gathered later in the evening in front of Government House also demand the soldiers to leave. Even though the situations looked a bit tense as it was unlikely at first that none of the two fractions would back down, the Red Shirts eventually decided not to pull a yellow shirt move and eventually retreated back to the main rally site at Pan Fah Bridge.

Unfortunately, there has been another bomb attack and it has claimed the most injured people since the beginning of the protest. Two grenades went off at two government-owned TV stations (Channel 5 and Channel 11) just within hours, eleven people (soldiers and civilians alike) have been injured. This is the latest in a series of grenade attacks throughout the past week. It is not (officially) known who threw these grenades, but it is very likely that a third party is involved here. For more on the grenade launcher attacks in recent times, Global Post's Patrick Winn has this background story.

Where are we now? By the looks of it there has been very little progress. Despite this, the most notable point is that the protests were peaceful! Neither the red shirts nor the government/military have provoked each other and have shown restraint and also respect. What might be a problem in my opinion is the  spirit of the red shirts. Yes, today's peaceful act with the military could be considered a victory. It is a very small one though, since not only the soldiers are now replaced by police forces, but also are they still far, far away from their central demands. PM Abhisit shows no sign of dissolving the house and calling for fresh elections. So, unless the red shirts are able to score a big victory - such as gaining more popular support from Bangkok residents - time is running out for them. But time could in the end be in the Red Shirt's favor as well, as both sides are certainly interested to move beyond the stalemate. The longer protest go on, the more likely a compromise is possible as Bangkok Pundit analyses:

(...) A journalist raised with Dr. Weng in a UDD presser on March 14 whether the red shirts would accept a promise by Abhisit in 3 months time and he said yes. BP doubts Abhisit (and *cough* the army *cough*) would accept the 3 month timeline, but what about a promise to dissolve within 6 months (decision is made at beginning of April) or by the end of the year? This would make it more difficult for both sides to reject. The reds want a dissolution now, but a promise to dissolve by the end of the year is more difficult for the reds to reject. The coalition partners don't want a dissolution now, but once the military reshuffle is resorted and another budget with the coalition partners getting their hands on more goodies to "hand" out. This would mean the Dems would have had about 2 years in office. They have a chance to see their policies implemented.

"What next for the red shirts and the government?", Bangkok Pundit, March 27, 2010

A new election would not solve the problems of the political crisis, as many of the issues are rooted much deeper, but it would be a step in the right direction if politics are not taken to the streets again - at least until the next time.

Further reading:

• Nick Nostitz (via New Mandala): Bangkok or bust, Part 1 (Great photo essay!)
• Khi Kwai: Thai-Style “Democracy,” 1958-2010
• Chang Noi (The Nation): Witness the death of deference
• Suthichai Yoon (The Nation): Yes to the red shirts' spirit; no to Thaksin
• Christian Science Monitor: Biased TV stations intensify divides in Thailand protests

Red Shirt Supporters in Germany

A German blog called "Schönes? Thailand" (Beautiful? Thailand), which openly supports the red shirts, recently ran a story about a Red Shirts supporters' meeting in Dortmund last weekend with an attendance of over 50 people. Special guests were Giles Ji Ungpakorn and (via telephone) Jakrapop Penkair, both in exile after being accused of lèse majesté, who held speeches about the current political situation. Due to legal reasons I cannot translate and post many parts of the speeches (instead read it yourself), but I found this part noteworthy.

Die Rothemden haben am Ende der Versammlung einen Beschluss gefasst. Sie erklärten, sich bis zum Sieg für die Demokratie einsetzen zu wollen. Falls es eine Zerschlagung der Demokratiebewegung gäbe, würden sie sich sofort versammeln und vor der thailändischen Botschaft und den Konsulaten versammeln um dagegen zu protestieren.

(The Red Shirts have come to a conclusion at the end of the meeting. They declare to stand up for democracy until victory. In case of a crackdown of the democracy movement, they would immediately assemble and protest against it in front of the Thai embassy and consulates.)

"Solidaritätsveranstaltung in Deutschland", Schönes? Thailand, March 16, 2010 - Translation by me

Sources tell me that it was initially a birthday party of a member. It was then transformed to a political event. Pictures of the event (and a meeting of a few in front of the Royal Thai Embassy in Berlin) can be seen here.

It is difficult to conduct the political leaning of Thais in Germany, let alone the demographics of all Thai people in this country. By my own estimations and impressions (and by no way it is meant degrading), most Thais in Germany are female, above 35 years old and married to a German male. Also, the origin of most is the Isaan region, the North-Eastern.

In my opinion, like in Thailand itself, there has been a growing interest for Thai politics by the Thai expats here in Germany in recent times. The numbers are nowhere near their American counterparts (more about this in another blog post), but certainly we can expect more political activism by Thai expats.

Red March on Bangkok, Day 8

The red shirts today will march through Bangkok in order to round up support. Richard Barrow has created a map of the route, which will be updated during the day. [googlemaps http://maps.google.co.th/maps/ms?hl=en-GB&ie=UTF8&msa=0&msid=116480606892254086046.0004817fafbb87b0951c0&ll=13.760728,100.561638&spn=0.120049,0.20565&z=12&output=embed&w=600&h=360]

After a day of relative silence from the rally site (meaning no groundbreaking developments) and now a completed week, the protests might come to end. With the march through Bangkok today the Red Shirts hope revitalize their cause and also to try to woo in potential undecided Bangkok supporters. Bangkok Pundit describes the potential target group.

The red shirts will also more likely be seeking the support of the urban poor and the lower middle-classes, particularly those who earn less than 15,000 Baht a month although there is a problem in the sense that the larger the red shirt turn-out on the road, the greater disruption there will be.

"Are the red shirts all about Thaksin?", Bangkok Pundit, March 19, 2010

But in earlier post he also pointed out the difficulties of this move.

The red shirts face the same problem that PAD faced. You stay in Bangkok for too long people will get annoyed as their daily life is upset. If the numbers for a long-term protests are very high then the downside of this is that when you go walking around the city on the various gimmicks you will just cause greater traffic problems. Of course though if your numbers are not high enough, well you become less relevant. Media attention cannot be sustained for long. In fact, now it is on the wane. They will still attract attention for this weekend, but beyond that it becomes more difficult.

"Red shirts losing?", Bangkok Pundit, March 19, 2010

The Bangkok Post cites a writer from the Thai-language daily Matichon about the attitude of many Bangkokians towards the red shirts and the protests so far.

However, this week's red shirt rally is different from previous mob rallies in Bangkok. Most people in Bangkok neither oppose nor support the rally, but are neutral.

The reason might be that even though Bangkokians are still wary about Thaksin, they do not see the Abhisit administration in a shining light. Even though Mr Abhisit still retains a good image, he is seen as ineffectual in curbing corruption within ministries run by coalition parties. They see Mr Abhisit as cautious in tackling corruption, fearing the loss of support of the coalition parties who switched sides from Thaksin's  party.

They also see the Abhisit administration as being insincere in solving the red shirt problems at their core, and of trying to paint the red shirts as devils, hell-bent on wreaking havoc in Bangkok.

"Bangkokians prove neutral on red shirt rally", Bangkok Post, March 20, 2010

This could be the final act of the protest, unless they pull a PAD (seize a government building or an airport indefinitely)! The red shirts will try their best to end on a high note, showing their peaceful side and, in the best case, gain sympathies by Bangkokians. Let's if they are still welcomed, after the residents of the capital are being told to stay in yet another weekend...

Red March on Bangkok, Day 6 - "Peaceful Class War"

After another questionable display of blood spilling, this time at PM Abhisit's private house, and the decreasing number of attendance, there was still the looming question of what the next move of the anti-government protests would be. But more on that later. One of the major developments was the open split between the red shirt leaders and ex-communist insurgent Surachai Sae Dan and Major General Kattiya Sawasdiphon - better known as Seh Daeng. Seh Daeng is a colorful and well-known character in Thailand and he wasn't quiet today as well. In his usual vivid style he said:

เสธ.แดงกล่าวเพิ่มเติมว่า ที่ผ่านมา พวก 3 เกลอเคยพาเสื้อแดงทำอะไรประสบความสำเร็จบ้าง นำทัพแดงรบแพ้มา 2 ครั้ง ขณะที่ตนเป็นทหารที่รบชนะมาตลอด คอยช่วยเหลือเสื้อแดงอยู่ตลอด ดังนั้นแกนนำนปช.ควรจะถอยไป เหลือไว้เพียงนายณัฐวุฒิ ไสยเกื้อ และเปิดโอกาสให้นายอริสมันต์ พงษ์เรืองรอง นายสุพร อัตถาวงศ์ และนายขวัญชัย ไพรพณา ขึ้นมาเป็นผู้นำทัพคนใหม่

(Sae Daeng further criticizes: "In the past, what have the three leader of the Red Shirts achieved? They have led the Red Army and lost twice. On the contrary, I - the soldier - have always won and was always loyal to the Red Shirts. Thus the UDD leaders should step aside with the exception of Natthawut Saigua and make space for Arisaman Pongruengrong, Suporn Atthawong and Kwanchai Praiphana to be the new leaders.")

"เสธ.ฉุน3เกลอ สู้ไม่ได้ป้ายขี้ แนะมาร์คนั่งรถแทนฮ.", Thai Rath, March 17, 2010 - Translation by me

The last three names that Sae Daeng mentioned are known hardliners within the movement.

About the blood stunt he said:

"ไม่รู้แกนนำเอาตำราพิชัยสงครามเล่มไหนมาใช้ เพราะปกติเขาจะกรีดเลือดเฉพาะผู้นำทัพ แต่นี่กลับมาเจาะเลือดลูกทัพ ทำให้เสียมวลชนที่เป็นสตรีและเด็กจำนวนมาก กลุ่ม 3 เกลอรู้ดีว่าสู้ไม่ได้เลยโกรธ จึงโยนความผิดให้และด่าว่าตนทำให้แพ้ (...)"

(I don't know what battle manual they have read, because normally you the take blood of the leaders. But here they take the blood of the supporters, which drives the women and children away in large numbers. The three leaders know that they cannot fight, so they're angry and are blaming me for their defeat! (...)")

"เสธ.ฉุน3เกลอ สู้ไม่ได้ป้ายขี้ แนะมาร์คนั่งรถแทนฮ.", Thai Rath, March 17, 2010 - Translation by me

Meanwhile one of the current red shirt leaders had this to say:

Veera Musigapong announced on the stage at Phan Fah Bridge that the two had looked down on the red-shirt people by crticising the peaceful measures of the red-shirt leaders so the movement or Red in Land decided to cut tie with the two.

"Red in Land officially severs tie with Khattiya, Surachai" The Nation, March 17, 2010

There was certainly frustration within the movement that nothing substantial has come out of the last days and it was a matter of time when the first rifts will openly appear.

Suthichai Yoon of The Nation doesn't really quite believe the split:

But cynics say that this "break-up" may be a facade -- so that some violent acts could be carried out without the mainstream Red Shirts may being directly blamed for them.

We shall see whether this "split" is for real.

"Its official: The Reds are split...but is it for real?", by Suthichai Yoon, The Nation Blog, March 17, 2010

One cynic here thinks that he meant himself with "but cynics say...", just sayin'...

In the evening we got to know about the next (and may be final) act: they have declared a "peaceful class war" and will be rallying around Bangkok on Saturday. While this can be one last defiant move of the protests, we have to see if they can maintain a fighting mood until the weekend and I'm still not convinced that they will be able to woo in undecided Bangkokians to join the rally.

Further reading:

• Absolutely Bangkok: Red & Abandoned
• Patrick Winn (Global Post): Thailand: Bangkok blood curse
• Inter Press Service: With Blood Spilt, Political Wounds Far from Healed
• New York Times: Thai Protests Continue, but Scale Is Diminishing
• Not The Nation: Red Shirts Demand Cookies, Juice, A Place To Lie Down (Satire!)

Red March on Bangkok, Day 5 - What A Bloody Mess!

"Donated #redshirt blood arrives at Thailand Government House", photo courtesy of John Le Fevre

The fifth day of the anti-government protests by the red shirts took a somewhat bizarre turn. As announced yesterday, they called for their supporters to donate blood and then spill it at the Government House and later at the headquarters of the Democrat Party. Needless to say, it was a bloody mess (sorry for this and all coming blood-related puns). But it is not only what the red shirts have left at the sites, but also what is left of this campaign of this movement itself.

I mentioned yesterday my skepticism about this whole stunt. First there were the logistics: contrary to what I assumed the red shirts started with the blood donations this morning. In the end they managed to get 300 liters of blood from 70,000 people, of course far off from what they wanted to achieve. The process was completed at 4 pm and soon after a part of the Red Shirts moved to Government House and after that the crowd moved to the headquarters of the Democrat Party.

At 4.50pm, Jatuporn Prompan, a UDD leader, a man dressed in white as a Brahman, and another man holding a Buddha statue in his arms, walked to Gate No 2 where a religious rite was performed.  The brahman cited spells and incantations and poured an amount of blood in front of the gate.

After that the brahman took some of the blood from the ground to write letters on the concrete posts of the gate.

"Reds complete blood ritual", Bangkok Post, March 15, 2010

Half an hour later, about 100 men dodged around security to the Democrat Party's building and sloshed out another 18 litres of blood.

Reporters, police and soldiers looked on in amazement as the blood was being poured.

"Reds come good on pledge to splatter Govt House", The Nation, March 15, 2010

Looking at the (very gross, you've been warned) pictures, the Red Shirts have left a far sizable mess at the Democrat HQ than at Government House. Also, at both sites a white-robed Brahman priest took part in the stunt, doing a ritual with citations probably cursing the current government and other power holders for all eternity. Can anybody explain to me the spiritual background of this?

What I also cannot explain is what the red shirt will gain with this in the longer term, if at all? I'm still convinced that this was an impulsive, hastily planned attention grabber that has at least raised a few eye brows. Sure, the press was there to cover it and the pictures of the bloodbath will go around. Also, the red shirts wanted to leave a mark showing that they were here to stay or simply trying not to lose their face at the end. The problem is though, this protest hasn't really hurt anyone (not implying violence), unlike the seizure of the two Bangkok airports by the PAD (the Yellow Shirts), which has left a big wound on many levels. But the people will forget about today as quickly as the blood has been cleaned off.

I don't think this will gain more supporters, let alone for those undecided people of Bangkok which they tried to woo in for their case on Friday. It appears to me that the protest is slowly running out of steam. While it was well-planned and executed, with a decent amount of supporters (although nowhere near a million or even 500,000), no big troubles and inconveniences for the residents of Bangkok whatsoever, the leaders didn't really think about how to end this. It must have been clear for them that there was absolutely no chance they would topple the government. Also, the government itself has cleverly restrained themselves in the background letting the red shirts pass and even wooing them in a conciliatory tone. This attitude has caught the red shirt leaders off guard (while justifiably the potential for violence existed) that led them to up the ante, which then resulted in questionable stunts as seen today.

The only interesting issue left now is how the red shirts will conclude this protest, either slowly fading away or going out once more with a bang.

Further reading:

• Wayne Hay (Al Jazeera English): Thai blood protest could backfire
• Shawn W. Crispin (Asia Times): Bloody desperation for Thailand's reds
• Siam Report: Blood Protest & Future of the Movement
• Richard Barrow: Thailand is Open as Normal

Red March on Bangkok, Day 4 - Blood Loss (UPDATED)

"Tired #redshirt sleeps on the pavement in #Bangkok" by @alohalavina

On the forth day of the anti-government protests Prime Minister Abhisit has unsurprisingly dismissed the demand to dissolve parliament and therefore the red shirts (a part of them), after the deadline expired at noon on Monday, marched to the 11th Infranty Regiment - the Prime Minister's safe house and the government's situation room. Al Jazeera English reported from the scene.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gI23Kar9zy4&w=600&h=360] Video: "Thailand caught in protest standoff", Al Jazeera English, March 15, 2010. Via YouTube

UPDATE: Tulsathit Taptim and Panya Thiewsangwan of The Nation have described the scene and the deescalation tactics used by the military:

They spoke partly in northeastern dialect to the red visitors, teased them nicely and reminded them that they were confronting their own children who were only performing their duty yet would allow them to exercise their democratic right in an appropriate scope.

The military orators were aided by a powerful sound system that at one point jarred the nerves of red leader Veera Musigapong so much that he sarcastically vowed to drop the House dissolution demand if they would just drop the volume.

The friendly greetings - beginning with "Let us hear your voice. Let us hear your clappers." - caught the pro-testers off-guard and further limited their options. The red shirts had won praise for being peaceful and orderly and that reputation restricted what they could do in front of the sprawling Army compound.

"Army speakers win the day" by Tulsathit Taptim and Panya Thiewsangwan, The Nation, March 15, 2010

After the usual rant by the red shirt leaders against the government and other powerful key figures, the question everybody asked was: "And now what?" This:

United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) core leader Natthawut Saikua has announced that he will take one thousand liters of blood donated by protesters and spill it around Government House on Tuesday, in retaliation for the government's decision not to dissolve the House.

The drawing of blood will begin about 8am on Tuesday, Mr Natthawut said. A total of one million cubic centimetres (cc) would be taken from 100,000 volunteers, including protest leaders.

This would be a symbolic action. Cabinet ministers would have to walk over the protesters' blood when they enter Government House to work, he said.

If the government still refused to dissolve the House, then another million cc's of blood would be scattered outside the Democrat Party headquarters. The third target would Mr Abhisit's house, he said.

"UDD next move: Scatter blood", Bangkok Post, March 15, 2010

Really?! That's their plan? So far, the fact the protests have been peaceful and no bigger problems (or even violence) have occurred can be counted as a success and confident boost for the red shirts. But now they risk to lose all the momentum for this more than questionable stunt. First, there is the logistic problem: how on earth are they going to get enough blood of 100,000 people in just one night?

Secondly is a medical one: how are they going to get enough clean needles? The Thai Red Cross has refused to help, pointing out medical consequences of improper use. Channel 3 has reported that an unnamed hospital will support the Red Shirts with the stunt, but so far no other news sources did.

And finally the question is: what do they want to achieve with this? Unless they want to deliberately create a big hygienic mess I don't see anything being solved here! It all appears to me a rather impulsive stunt as they failed with the protest at the 11th Infranty Regiment. Even if the red shirts do pull it off, the this campaign of the movement is slowly bleeding out.

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At the same time when the red shirts protested at the military base, another base was attacked with six shots from a M79 grenade launcher. The 1st Infantry Regiment compound houses Army chief General Anupong Paochinda. Even though suspects were questioned by the police (and later released), so far there was no connection to the Red Shirts. This incident is yet another one in a string of attacks involving a M79 grenade launcher and also not the first one against General Anupong.

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In other news, the question of Thaksin's current whereabouts might be answered:

Former Thai premier Thaksin Shinawatra, on the run from corruption charges, was spotted in the Montenegrin town of Budva this weekend, a local TV station reported Monday.

Thaksin was seen in coastal Budva's medieval old town on Sunday, enjoying coffee and cakes in one of the area's posh hotel with his entourage, TV Vijesti reported, quoting witnesses.

"Deposed Thai premier spotted in Montenegro: Report", Associated Press via Vancouver Sun, March 15, 2010

As I correctly predicted on Saturday, Thaksin could only be in a non-EU country and given his connections, Montenegro sounds plausible.

Note: Special thanks to @alohalavina for giving me permission to post that picture. Go to her Twitter profile for more photos of today's event!

Further reading:

• Patrick Winn (Global Post): A Game of Chicken
• Absolutely Bangkok: Reds Fizzle Out After Marching To Govt's Tune
• Richard Barrow: Samut Prakan Red March to Bangkok
• Thanyarat Doksone (Associated Press): Thai PM rejects protesters' call for new elections
• Newley Purnell: Red shirt protests: images from Sun. and Mon.
• Greg Jorgensen: Some Thoughts on the Red Shirts

Red March on Bangkok, Day 3 - "Dissolve Parliament or else...!"

The anti-government protests by the Red Shirts has gone into its critical phase as the number of attendance has peaked, but no exact number can be given, because simply everyone is claiming something else.

A total of 46,377 people took part in the mass rally organised by the anti-government United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) in Bangkok, the Ministry of Interior reported on Sunday evening.

Foreign media estimated the crowds early on Sunday at over 100,000. The Associated Press quoted Pol Gen Wichai Sangprapai, commander in the main protest area, as saying he expected the number to reach 150,000 or more by Sunday evening.

"Dispute begins over rally numbers", Bangkok Post, March 14, 2010

As many as 600,000 members of the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship reached Bangkok late today, said Weng Tojirakarn, a protest leader. (...)

Abhisit said 100,000 protesters joined the rally last night, a number he said didn’t exceed a similar protest against him last April that turned violent. About 50,000 people turned up today, Government spokesman Panitan Wattanayagorn said.

“We are very satisfied with the turnout,” said Weng, one of the protest leaders. “It’s more people than last April. To say we have only 50,000 is ridiculous.”

"Thai Protesters Mass to Oust Premier, Pledge Marches", by Daniel Ten Kate and Anuchit Nguyen, Bloomberg.com, March 14, 2010

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As blogged yesterday, there has been the rumor that the government was considering to enforce a state of emergency. This has been quickly denied in the early hours of today and Prime Minister Abhisit said that such case would happen depending on "necessity and urgency only". It seems that the authorities are playing cool, for now. The fact that they have not declared Monday a public holiday, in order to ease off to prevent a traffic breakdown with the daily commuters, also underlines this.

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This weekend only marks the beginning of a longer protest by the Red Shirts as they say that the next few days are the most crucial. The most significant development today was their ultimatum to Abhisit to dissolve Parliament with 24 hours or else they'd storm he 11th Infantry Regiment - the government's "war room" and safe house. The deadline is 12 PM on Monday and with Abhisit very unlikely to act according to their wishes, it will be very interesting how to will unfold tomorrow to say the least.

Here's what the two English dailies in Thailand The Nation and Bangkok Post are saying plus an analysis by the British Times Online (emphasis all mine).

Today's noon deadline for the movement's House dissolution ultimatum will pass, forcing the red shirts to decide what to do next. The movement has announced a plan to besiege the 11th Infantry Regiment headquarters, but the real question is what they are prepared to do afterwards. (...)

As for the government, the military has been firmly on its side. One little worry has to do with what game the coalition partners are playing. News reports suggested the allies are not ready to jump ship, at least for now. If the solidarity is confirmed, this will leave the red shirts with two increasingly implausible scenarios of victory: An upheaval of 500,000 people or a bloody turmoil that somehow enables a pro-Thaksin coup to succeed.

"Govt putting the ball in Reds' court", by Tulsathit Taptim, The Nation, March 15, 2010

The UDD's lack of a strong or decisive response to Mr Abhisits anticipated rejection to their call for House dissolution indicates that their much publicised final showdown to topple the government still lacks the knockout punch. The one-million protesters expected by the UDD has not been achieved and remains a pipe dream.  Without that magic figure to tip the balance in their favour,  it is doubtful the UDD will be able to overthrow the government. (...)

Both the UDD and the government have been trying their best to avoid the label of villains for being the first to start violence. The longer the protest drags on, the more likely that one side, or both, will lose patience.

Despite the bluffs and counter-bluffs of both sides, Sunday's peaceful mass protest is a healthy sign that should prevail throughout the duration of the protest.

"Still cool... for now", by Veera Prateepchaikul, Bangkok Post, March 15, 2010

If the demonstrators can paralyse Bangkok, or provoke the Government into a crude crackdown, Mr Abhisit will be the loser; if he can contain the protest, and reduce it to no more than a noisy nuisance, then he will come out the stronger.

The likeliest outcome is a messy, inconclusive stalemate in which neither side lands a knockout blow, and the loser is Thailand itself – its credibility among foreign investors, its tourist industry, and its once powerful sense of national unity.

"Analysis: who will blink first in Bangkok?", by Richard Lloyd Parry, Times Online, March 14, 2010

Further reading:

• PaknamPhotos.com: Red Shirt March to Bangkok เสื้อแดงสมุทรปราการเดินเท้าเข้ากรุงเทพฯ (600 (!) pictures of the Red Shirts' march from Samut Prakan to Bangkok)
• Bangkok Pundit: Foreign Media round-up of the red shirts entering Bangkok

Red March on Bangkok, Day 2 - State of Emergency Imminent?

After a slow start yesterday, today's descend of the anti-government red shirts into Bangkok was significantly larger. The Nation estimates at least 100,000 protestors have gathered along Rajdamnoen Avenue and have described the scene as this:

Makeshift toilets were being installed by the red shirts to supplement those provided by the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration, and many food stalls quickly sprang up.

As night fell some traded stories, while others went to listen to the main stage's speakers on Phan Fah Bridge, which became a sea of red shirts.

"Rajdamnoen a sea of red as protesters set up camp" by Pravit Rojanaphruk, The Nation, March 13, 2010

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During Friday afternoon The Nation (among others) have posted a video which they have captioned in a mildly cocky manner with "Look what's going on in Nakhon Phanom as local red shirts are preparing to leave for Bangkok to join the mass rallies on Sunday.".

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=afmrFcGHIIU&w=600&h=360]Video: YouTube via Prachatai.com

It shows red shirts in Nakhon Phanom receiving money. Even though it is probably for fuel expenses, as one local red shirt leader stated, some would immediately jump to the conclusion that the protestors were actually hired. Prachatai has more.

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Meanwhile, after I blogged yesterday that Thaksin tweeted he was on his way to Europe, the former PM again stated this during a short phone-in to his supporter at the main rally site. Here's a video of the phone-in, the reference on his whereabouts begins at the 10 minute mark.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5uP6U60BPH8&feature=player_embedded&w=600&h=360]Video by ThaiTVNews.blogspot.com, watch the second part here.

"My dear people, there have been news spread that I'm supposed to be in Cambodia. I'm in Europe! I'm here to meet my children, who were attending a trade show in Germany so we're going to meet in Europe. It is not true that I would be in Cambodia, because I don't want tarnish the relationships between the two countries. What is for granted is that wherever I am, I can call in. Wherever I am I can video-link to you. (...) So stop with that lie!"

(Translation by me)

Thaksin further denies that he was expelled from UAE by saying that he would be asked by some countries not to enter because simply "they were fed up with the whining of the Thai government!". It is still not clear which European country Thaksin currently is, while it is impossible that countries like Germany and the UK would welcome him since they revoked his visa. The Vice Minister for Foreign Affairs Panich Vikitsreth claimed yesterday that he was on his way to Switzerland. But then again, the Foreign Ministry was also yesterday. May be Montenegro?

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In the late hours of the evening The Nation (again, I know) has reported that a source say that the government is considering to enforce a state of emergency.

The government will likely enforce a state-of-emergency decree today to cope with the escalating security problem in Bangkok after tens of thousands of provincial protesters arrived in the city yesterday.

A state of emergency, which would be on top on the current implementation of the Internal Security Act (ISA), would empower the military to fully take charge of the situation. (...)

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva is expected to hold an emergency Cabinet meeting before the emergency decree is used, according to a senior government source.

Red shirts rallying for "democracy" yesterday threatened a mass march on Abhisit's hold-out if he does not dissolve the House of Representatives by noon today. (...)

Jatuporn Promphan, a key leader of the anti-government movement, said that at this stage they had no plan to march to Government House, Parliament House or the house of Privy Council President Prem Tinsulanonda.

"Govt likely to enforce state of emergency on top of ISA", The Nation, March 14, 2010

Honestly, it doesn't make much sense to me at this point. Firstly, there is only one source and I haven't read this anywhere else. Secondly, I see no real justification to call in the military other than pre-emptively strike against the red shirts. We'll have to see. By the time of writing this blog post (6 AM Bangkok time), nothing has been stated by the government yet.

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For Sunday's coverage of the red shirts protests, I recommend you to follow these people on Twitter: @thaicam, @_willowtree_, @RobinThailand, @tri26 and @newley will be reporting all from the scene at Radjadamnoen Avenue, Patrick Winn (@BKKApologist) and @RichardBarrow have announced that they will be embedded with red shirts coming by boat from Ayutthaya and by car from Samut Prakan, respectively. As usual due to time difference, I'll chime in during the afternoon Bangkok time (@Saksith).