Conservative German MPs help Thaksin enter Germany again
Originally published at Siam Voices on July 24, 2011 The Frankfurter Allgemeiner Zeitung (FAZ) newspaper reports that former fugitive prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra is allowed to enter Germany again. Some excerpts from the newspaper:
Thaksin Shinawatra can enter Germany again. The entry ban against Thaksin, in effect since 2006, has been already revoked on July 15 by the order of Foreign Minister Guido Westerwellse, as this paper understands. The ministerial order has been forwarded to the Federal Ministry of the Interior, which will direct all subsidiary authorities, including the federal police [which also patrols the borders of Germany], to implement the ruling immediately. (...)
The decision by Berlin, which isn't publicly known in Thailand yet, might further put a strain on the relations of both countries. (...)
The reason for the revoking of the entry ban by Germany is the "changed [political] situation in Thailand" according to government circles in Berlin.
"Thaksin darf nach Deutschland", Frankfurter Allgemeiner Zeitung, July 22, 2011 - translation by me, note: Article is behind a paywall
Even though there has been an entry ban for him since 2006, Thaksin was still able to sneak into Germany in late 2008 and even got a residency permit in Bad Godesberg, near the former Western German capital Bonn (which also happened to be the place of residency of the then-ambassador of Thailand) - with help of some very suspicious German friends, including a former spy, a former local police chief, a lawyer and with recommendation letters of conservative German MPs. Both state and federal authorities were unaware about Thaksin's sojourn to Germany, even to the point blaming their own foreign intelligence agency to have helped him. When this incident came to light, the permit was immediately revoked in May 2009. This was the subject of my first ever blog post, where you can read more details about this case.
The question is now why Thaksin's entry ban has really been revoked after all? The Süddeutsche Zeitung has reported in June about increased attempts of German MPs, all apparently members of the Christian-conservative Christlich Soziale Union (the Bavarian sister-party to the nationwide, governing CDU), to convince Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle (member of the center-right Freie Demokratische Partei, which is a government coalition partner) to allow Thaksin to enter the country again:
The phantom [Thaksin] also keeps the Foreign Ministry and the Chancellor's Office busy. In the past few months, several conservative politicians have campaigned behind the scenes that Thaksin can travel hassle-free to Germany again. In a comparatively diplomatic way, former Minister of Economics Michael Glos (CSU) has asked Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle, if the entry ban for Thaksin still exists.
His colleague on the hand, MP Hans-Peter Uhl (CSU), is already starting to get on many diplomat's nerves with his pro-Thaksin initiatives. Several conservative politicians are campaigning in Berlin for a policy change towards Thailand, in which Thaksin should become a stronger figure again. (...)
"Thailands Ex-Premier Thaksin: Dubioser Besucher", Süddeutsche Zeitung, June 22, 2011, translation by me
The article goes on to hint at possible visits by Thaksin in the very recent past (thanks to his new citizenship of Montenegro and his Nicaraguan diplomatic passport) to meet somebody, who also visits Germany pretty often.
This reported revoking of the entry ban for Thaksin couldn't come at a worse time for Thai-German bilateral relationships, thanks to the impounded Royal Thai Air Force plane-saga (see previous coverage here and here), which by the way is apparently far from over. While most likely the Thai Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya will fume with anger over the reports and insist that the bilateral relations will take a huge hit, more focus has to be put on the conservative German MPs.
Thailand has never prominently popped up on the radar of German foreign policy (if at all) ever since the current administration took over in 2009 (critics say that the Foreign Minister has not much interest in anything) - the more interesting it is to see the MPs pushing for a change. The questions remain though: why do they want a pro-Thaksin policy towards Thailand? What are they hoping to gain from? Were they that influential on the Foreign Ministry? And why are these all conservative MPs of a Bavarian-affiliate governing party?
One has to keep an eye on another prominent Thai's activities, who will come to Germany more often in the very near future.
The impounded Thai plane is free - but not for free
Originally published at Siam Voices on July 21, 2011 A German court has decided on the fate of a Royal Thai Air Force aircraft, belonging to Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn - or to the Thai government, depending on who you listen to - which was impounded last week by a liquidator for the bankrupt Walter Bau AG construction company. For more background, see Bangkok Pundit's posts here and here. From Reuters:
A German court on Wednesday ruled Thailand's Crown prince would have to pay a 20 million euro deposit ($28.40 million) for the return of his plane, impounded during a long running commercial dispute.
The Landshut court in Bavaria said in a statement on Wednesday the 20 million figure was based on the estimated value of the plane. It said a deposit was necessary as it had not yet decided on the ownership of the plane.
"German court wants $28 mln to free Thai prince's jet", Reuters, July 20, 2011
AFP further details the verdict:
But a court in nearby Landshut said it had received an assurance under oath from the Thai Department of Civil Aviation's director that the plane belonged to the prince, not the Thai state, as well as a 2007 registration certificate.
The vice president of the court, Christoph Fellner, said however that since these documents provided only a "presumption of ownership," 20 million euros ($28.2 million) had to be deposited in the form of a bank guarantee.
"No guarantee means no take-off," he said. "If everything goes well for the prince and we establish that the aircraft really belongs to him, than he will get his bank guarantee back."
"German court releases Thai prince's plane", AFP, July 20, 2011
In a nutshell the court gave the Thai government the benefit of the doubt over the ownership of the plane and if this assurance would be decided as wrong, it will cost the Thais 20 million Euros.
But how do the Thai media outlets report on this, given how gingerly they handled this story in the past week? The Nation goes with the headline "German court releases Thai plane", Bangkok Post writes "Royal jet released", which both wrongly imply that the plane can now leave Germany. But the biggest offender is MCOT who went with:
German court rules royal jet doesn't belong to Thai government: Thai Foreign Ministry (MCOT, July 13, 2011)
But the court said its decision was only preliminary so a bond was requires and 20 million euros (US$28.2 million) must be deposited as a bank guarantee. When the court finally establishes that the aircraft does belong to the Crown Prince, it will return the bond.
A German court on Wednesday ruled that the impounded aircraft used by Thailand's Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn does not belong to the Thai government and agreed to release it on condition that a 20 million euro (over US$28 million) bank guarantee must be deposited, according to Foreign Ministry's Information Department deputy director-general Jesda Katavetin. (...)
He said the Thai legal team was working on the details of the ruling and could not reveal the details at the moment, but the ruling could be considered as a successful crucial step for the lawyers. (...)
You couldn't be further from the truth! That's what you get when you only speak to government officials: you only get opinion soundbites that aren't necessarily true - and of course they will try to sell this as a success, which clearly isn't. This whole piece is only topped by the last paragraph, which basically contradicts the whole article! Even the Thai language media, both press and TV, were more accurate in their reporting.
All in all, this is not to be considered a victory by the Thai side but the final verdict has not been delivered yet - until then, the plane will remain grounded and with it hopefully the rabble rousing by all people involved as well.
[UPDATE] The liquidator Werner Schneider has issued a statement in German through his law firm (PDF here), some excerpts:
"Even though the plane has been released, with the deposit of 20 million Euros we have achieved an important, successful interim result. It will be interesting to see who will pay the security deposit," says Werner Schneider, liquidator of the WALTER BAU-AG. Eventually, the point of the impoundment was not to turn the Thai plane into account, but to push [the Thais] for the required payments. In the point of view of Schneider, Geiwitz & Partner [the law firm], we have gone one big step ahead. (...)
Schneider sees the responsibility for potential diplomatic disturbances between Thailand and Germany only at the Thai government, because of their refusal to pay. "Thailand violated a bilateral intergovernmental agreement to protect investments for years - without any effective reactions from the [German] Federal Government," continues Schneider.
From: "Pressemitteilung: Insolvenzverwalter Schneider: Pfändungsaktion war ein Erfolg" (PDF), Kanzlei Schneider, Geiwitz & Partner, July 20, 2011 - translation by me
I think Schneider can now really forget about a holiday to Thailand anytime soon...!
The impounded Thai aircraft and lessons from the Thai media
Originally published at Siam Voices on July 20, 2011
You may have heard by now that last week a Boeing 737 airplane of the Royal Thai Air Force was impounded by a German liqudator and is now in a hangar at Munich airport. And by now you might have also heard that this plane belongs to Thailand's Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn - or does it? The outgoing Thai foreign minister Kasit Piromya is claiming and trying to prove to the German judiciary that this plane is not Thai government property, but the Crown Prince's personal aircraft. The German court is not convinced and sees this plane as of the Royal Thai Air Force plane and thus as a government vehicle.
This is where things stand at the moment before said German court will, after the examination of countless documents provided by the Thai side, decide on Wednesday if the plane remains impounded or not. For more on the background on why this plan was seized in the first place, read Bangkok Pundit's coverage here and here.
What's interesting to see was how the Thai media handled this story - or not at first, given the sensitivity of the subject. This story broke exclusively on Financial Times Deutschland (google for “Der Insolvenzverwalter des ehemaligen deutschen Baukonzerns Walter Bau streitet sich mit Thailand um Millionen”) last Tuesday, which quickly was reported in German and international media - only in Thailand the media was predictably silent.
This was until outgoing foreign minister Kasit Piromya called in for a press conference on last Wednesday evening shortly before he got on a plane to Germany (a regular Thai Airways flight, mind you!) to get this plane back, thus effectively making this issue a state affair. Still, despite explaining the legal reasons (the debt to be paid by the Thai government), many Thai media outlets were treading a fine line on what to mention and what not. Let's take this article from The Nation as an example:
Thailand will make all efforts to release a Thai national's Boeing 737 impounded in Germany due to a payment conflict between the government and a German construction firm, outgoing Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya said yesterday.
"Germany made the great mistake of confiscating property that does not belong to the Thai government," Kasit told reporters yesterday. (...)
"I made it clear that this matter has nothing to do with the royal court," he said. "It is a huge mistake for Germany to do this and we will not allow this issue to jeopardise relations between the two countries."
"Thailand's making 'all efforts' to end aircraft spat: FM", The Nation, July 15, 2011
As you can see, no references to the Crown Prince were made here. But slowly over the course of the next day the newsrooms realize they couldn't tell the story without the owner of that plane. So bit by bit they started to mention the Crown Prince as the owner of this aircraft, for example Thai Rath, Bangkok Post and also the evening news on Thai TV (with ThaiPBS even leading in with this story on Friday).
Only The Nation was most likely the last media outlet to hold off mentioning the Crown Prince's name - even when they put articles together from foreign news agencies as they referred to it only as a "Thai national's personal plane". It took them until Sunday, two whole days after everyone else, when they have finally mentioned his name, albeit again only with agency material.
The only original content from The Nation on this whole plane saga was an opinion piece by a certain Alexander Mohr, who wrote:
(...) first of all, the seizure of a plane from a royal fleet is simply not the most straightforward approach. One cannot help thinking that the insolvency manager went for the most sensational approach. Seizing a plane from the Thai royal fleet guarantees media attention and exposure. (...)
But while the identity of the aircraft's owner may remain unclear, the action of seizing a vehicle used by a member of the Royal Family exceeds all bounds of a reasonable approach towards a solution. The damage is done.
The Thai side tried to solve the issue on a political level last week. Foreign Minister Kasit flew to Germany where he met with Cornelia Piper, an under secretary of the German foreign ministry. The German side does not want to intervene in the case and refers to the independence of the judiciary. (...)
It is very likely the dispute will be settled soon. However, the avoidable damage caused to bilateral relations between Germany and Thailand is done, with both the economic and also political ties suffering.
"Plane stupid: the damage is done", by Alexander Mohr, The Nation, July 19, 2011
First off, the author is billed as a "partner for International Relations at the government relations firm Alber & Geiger in Brussels", which is a "political lobbying powerhouse (...) known for representing foreign governments" - so pretty much this was most likely written for the Thai government who wants to get their message across. What this piece reveals as well is that the Thai side seems genuinely astonished that the German government cannot influence its judiciary whatsoever and that only the they see the bilateral damage, since they made it a state affair.
It was an interesting lesson in how the Thai media handles such sensitive stories - if at all. After the void of total silence at first was mostly filled by the international media and the internet, the floodgates opened as soon as this was made into an affair of upmost national importance by the foreign minister. Granted, due to the legal restraints no one is allowed to publicly say why the Crown Prince and that plane is in Germany in the first place...
Survey reveals Thailand's next defense minister should come from the military - again!
Originally published at Siam Voices on July 16, 2011 On Thursday, the commander-in-chief General Prayuth Chan-ocha has broken his silence since the elections on July 3 (but also broke his promise not to comment on anything until a new government has formed, as earlier reported here) and announced his wish for one certain, important cabinet post:
Prayuth said the search for the new defence minister was not a topic for public discussion, hinting about closed-door talks between the military and the incoming government.
The new minister should be known for high ethical standards and held in high esteem by the armed forces, he said, arguing that the office holder should be in a position to bring about an amicable atmosphere between the military and the government.
"I think it is too soon to comment on who would be fit for the job but I prefer a military officer because he could understand the feelings of fellow soldiers," he said.
"Prayuth prefers military officer for defence minister", The Nation, July 14, 2011
And almost as if this was planned deliberately, a recent Suan Dusit survey has revealed this:
Suan Dusit Poll reported that 70.96 per cent of the respondents said the next defence minister should be a senior military officer because he understands well about discipline of military, has years of experiences and are respected by soldiers. A total of 27.83 per cent of them said the new defense chief should be a capable person acceptable to soldiers.
Some 23.82 per cent of the respondents expected the next defence minister to be a good person who protects military’s dignity and wants to create good image of the armed forces and to protect the country’s sovereignty, according to Suan Dusit Poll.
"Poll: Defence Minister should be soldier", Bangkok Post, July 16
These results are both astonishing, but yet unsurprising. It shows how deep the military is entrenched in Thai society and how present they still are in everyday life. Nevertheless, ever since the re-politicization thanks to the 2006 coup, the armed forces are reclaiming it's space, not only evident in the rising military budget. Having another military officer (with the outgoing General Prawit Wongsuwan) further solidifies the state within a state. In normal democracies, the armed forces are under civilian control - but this is Thailand...!
There have been suggestions that designated prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra might take over the position of defense minister as well, something that past prime minister have done so in the past, most notably Chuan Leekpai and the late Samak Sundaravej. But she quickly came out to deny these rumors. With the new government still taking shape, the position of defense minister is one to watch for and to see if the next few years will be stable or not.
Exclusive: ‘This is not the last straw for Thai democracy’ – Suranand Vejjajiva
Originally published at Siam Voices on July 15, 2011 This is part two of Siam Voices' exclusive interview with Suranand Vejjajiva, former Cabinet Minister under Thaksin Shinawatra, now a politicial columnist for the Bangkok Post and host of "The Commentator" on VoiceTV.
In this second installment, Suranand talks to Saksith Saiyasombut about a wide range of topics, including the fate of the red shirts, the future of the Democrat Party, our education crisis, the state of the media and Thaksin. For part one, click here.
Saksith Saiyasombut: Article 112 of the Criminal Code, the lèse majesté law, has been blamed to be partly responsible that Thailand has been downgraded by several media freedom watchdogs as for it‘s decreasing freedom of speech. Do you think a Pheu Thai government is capable to improve on this?
Suranand Vejjajiva: Oh yes, if they‘re willing to. The Democrat Party could have done it, too. The enforcement of that law, that it leaves to individual judgement, is problematic. A policeman can interpret the law differently. What the outgoing government has done is to string this law together with the Computer Crimes Act (CCA), all for political purposes. I don‘t agree with this development at all - let everyone speak their mind! To answer your question: Pheu Thai would definitely get into trouble, there‘ll be people attacking them...
...if they would tweak Article 122 or its application. But there are also other aspects they could improve on...
...they could improve the Computer Crimes Act. A lot of groups have been proposing for a change.
Exactly, even though the MICT has proposed a new draft of the CCA, which was even worse - which hasn‘t materialized yet...
...luckily...
Let‘s talk about the red shirt movement, what will happen to them now?
It‘s a good sign that the red shirt leaders are running for office and they should perform their duties as such. But the red shirts as a movement is a political phenomenon that should be studied and they should keep it up, they should improve and reform - make it a mature political movement and they will be an important political force, if they believe in protecting democracy. They have to prove themselves, too. A lot of people are accusing them for being just a vehicle for Thaksin to come back to power. Now, if they prove themselves to be just that and forget the people, then they will suffer. I don‘t wish to see that - the same can be said even for the yellow shirts! If they would have developed into a real political movement - fine!
Is it - for the lack of a better word - 'appropriate' if any of the red leaders-now-elected-MPs would get a cabinet post?
It‘s all political negotiation. For me personally, I don‘t mind because they would have to prove themselves and as long as they do not use their new power to intervene with their own cases, that‘s fine.
What about the new opposition, the Democrat Party...
...the new opposition with the old leaders? (laughs)
Well, will there be the old leaders or will there be new faces taking over, since Abhisit is now a burnt commodity?
It‘s quite a shame, but at the same Abhisit would be a liability to the Democrats for now. He‘s still very young and there‘re still ways to vindicate him - but with the 91 deaths hanging over his government, it‘s going to be hard. It‘s going to be a liability if he is still the opposition leader. The Democrats probably need a new face. But if they can‘t find one - Abhisit is still one of the strongest candidate on this side of the aisle, he has been protecting the conservatives and the establishment.
So if it‘s not going to be Abhisit, he thinks it should be someone from his fraction like (outgoing finance minister) Korn Chatikavanij or (former Bangkok governor) Apirak Kosayodhin - they have to work it out among themselves.
So it would be best to have a fresh new start with new faces?
Looking from Pheu Thai‘s point of view, it would be good if Abhisit stays! (laughs)
Speaking of new faces, how do you explain that Chuwit Kalomvisit‘s Rak Prathet Thai Party could get four seats? Was this a protest movement?
Yes, you have to give him credit. He is very energetic, he could get his message across - even though he looks crazy sometimes. And his message is easy and direct. But at the same time, a lot of people were thinking to „Vote No“, but once the PAD took that position, many people were thinking ,What am I going to do with my protest vote?‘ - they gave it to Chuwit.
Especially a lot of young people...
...especially a lot of young people who are bored of politics! Which happens in a lot of countries!
But at least in other countries there‘s a vocal part of the youth who are standing up against wrongdoings...
...and they are more organized...
...but here in Thailand, they are virtually invisible!
It‘ because of our weak education. The political consciousness and democratic principles need to be taught in school. Thai schools are still very authoritative and not bold enough to open up to let their students talk and speak [their mind]. It‘s not like the Western schools, it‘s a cultural thing that you have to develop. It hurts in a way, it makes the institutions weak, bad politicians can still remain in office - people basically don‘t really care!
Despite the fact the outgoing government has thrown more money at the problem, there are now more and more international reports indicating that the Thai education system is producing not very skilled labors and also in English proficiency we are falling behind. And then comes Pheu Thai and their most memorable education policy is „Free tablet PCs for all“...
In my opinion, giving out free tablet PCs is still better than just giving out free uniforms. Because at least the tablet PC can - if done right - open up access to information for the students, and it would also solve other problems, like printing frauds. But I agree with you, it‘s deeper than that!
It doesn‘t take gadgets to solve this problem, which are more fundamental...
...it‘s the fundamental attitude of the Ministry of Education towards education!
I‘m not very convinced there will be much change by the next government.
No, which will hurt us even more. It‘ll take a decade, it would take two or three generations to change the education system, but you have to begin somewhere. And I agree with you, if they don‘t do it now...
...we will have another lost generation?
Yes.
A weak society needs a strong media to at least uphold the pillars of society, but we don't have that as well.
We don‘t! As seen in many foreign countries, a strong public television system really helps a society to develop - we don‘t have it here. We tried to do it a lot of times, but that was no real public service television.
What I‘m trying to say is, I see a direct correlation between weak education and weak media. So there's less of a sense to challenge, criticize and openly question things that are needed to be addressed.
Well, we were just talking about the campaign. If we were in the United States or Germany, a good 90 per cent of the Thai campaign policies would have been shot down by the press, because they would been well researched with reports, graphics; arguing wether this is feasible - but you don‘t see that in Thai press, they would just ask that academic, then this academic and that‘s it! Just soundbites!
British academic Duncan McCargo wrote a book about the Thai press ("Politics & the Press in Thailand: Media Machinations"), which is 10 years old, his research is 15 years old...
...and it‘s still valid - unfortunately!
He says, among many other things, that the Thai media mostly lacks a „sense of duty to explain the political process“. Can there be change as well, even in these very solid, top-down structures?
I hope so, there are a lot of good publishing houses and newspapers. But you don‘t see any quality papers á la New York Times or you don‘t see an investigative television show. I hope the young generation will be able to use the internet more wisely. But we don‘t have a strong enough education system to create an opportunity for them to question the information they are getting, then they will be fooled like everyone else.
Getting back to politics: will this transition of power be smooth?
For the sake of the country, I‘d like to see that. Whether Pheu Thai is good or bad - give them a chance to run the country, at best for four years. If they have done well, re-elect them; if not, throw them out of the office! That‘s the simple democratic principle.
But to answer your question: I doubt it, there‘ll be a lot of challenges. Now, if the challenges come within the parliamentary system, fine. But if it‘s not, then there will be trouble.
Is this one of the reasons why there‘ll be an intervention from an undemocratic force or is it still too early to say?
It‘s too early to say! The advantage for us right now is, after the recent events in the world, like the Arab Spring, are cautionary tales for people who try to exercise power outside the framework of democracy. But I also think that Pheu Thai‘s action in government will be important: appoint good and capable cabinet ministers, prove themselves that they are fair and transparent, no corruption cases - this would help. But if they come in and do the same thing - what I‘m scared of is that people will lose faith in democracy.
Haven‘t many people already lost their faith in the current democratic system, especially the youth?
Yes, even some of the rural people - there was a whole village that didn‘t come out to vote at all! But at the same time I think it‘s not the last straw! But if the next government does the same mistakes the Democrats did and disappoint the people, then the military would see this as an excuse to say: "Let‘s get in!" But that‘s not the solution!
Of course there‘s a dark, shadowy figure looming around this whole political crisis, it‘s of course Thaksin. Do you think Thaksin should have kept his mouth shut in the last few months?
I don‘t mind. If he feels he‘s been treated unfairly, let him say so. People talk a lot in this country. But whatever he says, he has to live with the consequences, like everyone else.
But nevertheless Yingluck got a big boost, because she‘s Thaksin‘s sister.
Yes! Thaksin is both an asset and a liability. He‘s certainly an asset - his vision, his connections, his networks, his charisma...
...his ego...
...I mean, he has the drive, to put it that way. But on the other hand he is a liability because he has so many political enemies.
The question many are asking is if Yingluck can stand on her own as a PM.
That is going to be important for the country. Yes, she is Thaksin‘s sister, she can‘t deny that. And in reality Thaksin is helping out a lot. But in a short period of time, she has been a successful campaigner. Now she has to prove, in an even shorter period time, that she can run the country. We have to give her that chance.
Will this government, and the red shirt movement as well, be capable and willing to move beyond Thaksin?
This is what they have to sit down and talk about.
Is this country able to?
Oh yes, definitely! There will be a day, where Thaksin is too old and you have to move on.
Will he come back?
I think so. He should come home, but to power? That‘s going to be another problem.
Khun Suranand, thank you very much!
Exclusive: Pheu Thai should talk policies first - Suranand Vejjajiva
In this two-part interview, Saksith Saiyasombut talks to Suranand Vejjajiva, a former Cabinet Minister under the Thaksin Shinawatra administration who served as the Minister of the PM's Office and spokesman of the Thai Rak Thai Party, until the ban of this party and 111 politicians in 2007. The cousin of the now outgoing prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, Suranand is a columnist for the Bangkok Post and host of "The Commentator" on VoiceTV.
In part one we talk about Pheu Thai's election victory and the work ahead of them, including the economy and reconciliation process and where it went wrong for the Democrat Party. In part two, we'll look ahead at the fate of the new government, the red shirts, the Democrat Party and Thaksin Shinawatra and also at the state of education and the media in Thailand.
We had Election Day on Sunday, July 3 - then on Monday, July 4, we already have a coalition or at least an agreement to form a coalition. What this to be expected to happen so quickly?
I‘m not in the inner circle, but what I was thinking is that - since PT has 265 seats - they don‘t have a wide enough margin. They expect that some elected MPs could get disqualified [by the Election Commission], so they have already talked to smaller parties to get the margin up to 299 seats to be safe. (Note: it‘s 300 now, ed.)
Do you think this coalition is stable enough?
In terms of numbers yes, definitely. The coalition partners don‘t have any leverage to change anything much because PT already has enough seats. If PT would have fewer seats, let‘s say 220, and a coalition partner with 20 seats would come in, then they would have more leverage, then the coalition would be unstable. But number-wise, this coalition is stable.
We have now the usual claims on the ministries, but as you just said, the coalition partners don‘t have any leverage - still, I cannot imagine that they want to go out empty handed...
Oh, they will get their ministries! My first observation was along this line, too. But it‘s too early to talk about cabinet positions - the Election Commission has not even certified the MPs yet, there‘s still a lot of time. I think Pheu Thai is being pushed by the media...
...practically hyped up...
...yeah, hyped up - to talk about cabinet positions, because that‘s what the media is interested in. But I don‘t think Pheu Thai should fall for that. For example when I saw in the news today, when Khun Yingluck came out and talked about policies - that‘s what parties should talk about right now.
So what are the policies they should look at first?
It will be two-prong. The first one is reconciliation, it‘s a policy-cum-mechanism that they have to implement. They cannot say by themselves that they will do this and that, since they are a part of the conflict as well. So what Khun Yingluck is trying to propose, a neutral committee while keeping the Truth and Reconciliation Committee of Dr. Kanit, is good in a way...
Even though Dr. Kanit's panel has hardly found anything...
It‘s because the now-outgoing administration didn‘t give them anything. It‘s a paper tiger, they don‘t even get the budget they needed - let alone access to all the evidence. So if Yingluck comes in as the prime minister and opens up everything to Kanit‘s committee - that‘s one thing she has to make sure that happens.
The other thing of course is the economic situation. Not all people care for reconciliation, but a lot of them care what is going to be in their wallets and in their stomachs.
And are Pheu Thai‘s policies a real way out? For example, one of the first things they have planned is to raise the minimum wage to 300 Baht...
It's hard to say. I have criticized nearly every party's policies, I don‘t believe in these so-called 'populist platforms'. Yes, Thailand still has gaps and loopholes concerning wages or the welfare system. But to give handouts from the first day will be a strain on the fiscal discipline for the government. What they should have done though, while I agree with the wage raise, is to explain what kind of structural adjustments they would do for the economy. When investors and business people see that for example the minimum wage increase is part of a larger restructuring, they might be more confident over the economy.
Let‘s take a look back for a moment. You said that you have criticized almost every party‘s policies - what made Pheu Thai stand out from anybody else?
Pheu Thai and its previous incarnations (People‘s Power Party and Thai Rak Thai) have a track record - if you look at their economic team, all former cabinet ministers - that is for me and probably for many people enough for us now to have confidence in them.
Where did it go wrong for the Democrat Party then?
On reconciliation - they were not sincere enough about it, they haven‘t provided an official explanation on what happened last year yet, we only got political rhetoric so far. And no cases have gone into the judicial process yet.
What about the economic side?
They have not been able to deal with the rising cost of living. Of course, they would say the export figures are excellent, but they are excellent because we are a food producing country. But the prices on (palm) oil, nearly all prices went up. They haven‘t been able to manage the domestic side, not even the 'trickling down' of these benefits towards the urban population but also to the farmers. I think that‘s why they lost the vote.
Then there was the last-ditch attempt to hold a rally at Rajaprasong, which didn‘t really help them in the end...
Well, I‘m trying to figure out the Bangkok vote, which consists of two factors: first, the Democrats control the election mechanics in Bangkok for a very long time, so they‘re better organized than Pheu Thai in Bangkok. Secondly, Abhisit was continuing to bet on the politics of fear - the fear of Thaksin, the fear of the red shirts. Abhisit was targeting the Bangkok electorate, especially the middle-class.
We have now talked about the reconciliation and economic policies of the Pheu Thai Party. What else should be on top of their list?
Foreign policy. Especially with the neighboring countries, because I think we cannot live among ourselves. The outgoing government has created very bad relations with our neighbors and that doesn‘t help because ASEAN 2015 (the planned establishment of the ASEAN Economic Community, ed.) is coming very soon. If you really want to be a real borderless ASEAN, it has to be proven on the mainland and if Thailand doesn‘t have good relations with its neighbors, it will be problematic. The border situation with Cambodia was mishandled very badly from a diplomatic standpoint - it could have resolved bi-laterally long time ago. If there were good relations, we wouldn‘t have any incidents, not even at the UN Security Council or to the International Court of Justice or the World Heritage Committee. That is embarrassing.
Part of the much-discussed reconciliation policy of Pheu Thai has been a potential amnesty plan - if there has been ever one. Is it a smart move to give everybody, convicted of political wrongdoings, amnesty? Is this how a proper reconciliation looks like?
I don‘t agree at all with that. I don‘t see that an amnesty will help anyone. You can forgive, but only after a certain process. I‘m a banned politician for only eight more months and I have never called for an amnesty. But if you absolve all these cases, including Thaksin, the terrorist accusations against red and yellow shirts, the military coup, the defamation cases - you cannot give an amnesty that way, because there are a lot of other people in jail who will call for their own amnesty as well! The best way for reconciliation is not an amnesty, but to make sure that the judicial process is fair and transparent in order to provide real justice.
But does it like it at the moment or does the judicial system need changes?
Once you say you have to reform the whole judicial process, then that‘s a big problem. For example, the government has to find a credible and socially accepted Minister of Justice first...
Now who would that be?
I don‘t know! But it‘s important this person is independent. This government has to set an example, especially for the cases that involve the red shirts and Thaksin. I don‘t think Thaksin wants an amnesty, since he himself said he didn‘t do anything wrong. But if he‘s sure that the judicial process is fair and transparent, he might be able to come back and fight his case.
What I've been up to lately... (aka Shameless Self-Plugging)
Phew, what a week that was! As regular readers of my blog know, I do not write too many exclusive posts for my personal blog here. Most of the time, all the posts I write for Siam Voices are being republished here and form time to time I post a personal column almost every sixth month - so since my last one was a recap of 2010, a new one is overdue. And you came around at the right time, because there's a lot to tell you about the last few days and weeks...
So, even the last person must have recognized that I'm in Bangkok right now, where I'll spent nearly all of this summer working (as a journalist), researching (for my final thesis) and if there's still time for some little fun (for my own sanity). The first two weeks of my stay so far has been almost entirely work-centric - there was an election nonetheless!
So here's a list of posts I've written or other things I've been involved in (Note: This post, among other articles, should have gone up long, long time ago. Apologies!):
Siam Voices/Asian Correspondent - June 24, 2011 "Thailand’s Democrat Party rally: Reclaiming (the truth about) Rajaprasong" A field report from the Democrat's rally at Rajaprasong, the same place where over a year ago the red shirts seized. Deputy prime minister Suthep Tuangsaban wanted to show 'the truth' about what happened during the violent clashes a year ago, while prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva warns people that a vote for the opposition Pheu Thai Party is a vote for Thaksin.
Siam Voices/Asian Correspondent - June 27, 2011 "‘Justice Delayed, Justice Denied’ – A public seminar on last year’s violence and what has (not) happened since" As an interesting contrast to the Rajaprasong rally by the Democrat Party, this public forum at Thammasat University has several speeches on what has (not) happened ever since the violent crackdown on the protests. Spoiler: Not much...
Thaizeit.de - June 29, 2011 "Wir sind ein gespaltenes Land" ("We are a devided country") A Thailand-based, German language website conducted an interview with me about the current political situation. I particularly like the description "Thai-hanseatic" and my answer to the last question (if necessary, put through a translator).
Siam Voices/Asian Correspondent - July 1, 2011 "Pheu Thai Party rallies in Nakhon Ratchasima – a photo essay" Another day on the campaign trail, we followed Yingluck Shinawatra to a Pheu Thai Party rally in Nakhon Ratchasima (also known as Korat). I'm surprised that me and my cameraman (I'm on double duty for IHLAS News Agency) were let onto the stage that easily and at the time Yingluck came, there was absolute pandaemonium! After that we were racing to back to Bangkok to be just in time for...
Al Jazeera "The Stream" - June 29, 2011 "Thai Elections: Lions, Tigers, and Bears? Vote 'No'! - Saksith Saiyasombut" Al Jazeera's new social media-centric show "The Stream" has done an Skype interview with me - at 2.30am (since they're based in Washington DC!). I'm kind of surprised that they went with the "Vote No" and the animal posters as the lead and my answers concerning social media and Thai politics probably wasn't what they wanted to hear. This is my third time that I appeared on Al Jazeera program (after appearing on The Listening Post, twice) - can I now be called a 'regular contributor'...?
CNNgo - June 30, 2011 "Saksith Saiyasombut: Get out from under your coconut shell and vote" My first contribution for CNNgo, a lifestyle and travel website, but also always with an eye on the more serious sides of life, including social issues and politics. This column doesn't go into the details of the political mechanisms, but more my feelings about this country and where it is heading to, when we're not careful enough. This piece was done in the same night as the Al Jazeera interview and so was the next piece...
CNNgo - July 3, 2011 "Top 10 strange moments of Thailand's 2011 general election" Top 10-lists always go well as an online article format so I did my very own top 10 of election campaign oddities, and there were many of them this year.
Siam Voices/Asian Correspondent- July 3, 2011 "Live-Blog: Thailand Elections 2011" Throughout the whole election day I live-blogged, partly from my mobile phone on a back of a motorcycle, about nearly all aspects of that day.
Will Yingluck amend Thailand's lese majeste law?
Originally published at Siam Voices on July 8, 2011 Earlier today, fellow blogger Bangkok Pundit wrote about whether Yingluck Shinawatra will amend, reform, change or even do away with Thailand's draconian lese majeste law. He quotes from an interview in The Independent where she states that she wants this law to not be "misused". BP continues...
If BP’s memory serves BP correctly, the last time that lese majeste law was amended was in the 1970s by a military/military-installed government so don’t expect any amendments immediately because to do so will just invoke Thaksin-wants-to-overthrow-the-monarchy-argument.
"Yingluck on Thailand’s lese majeste law", Bangkok Pundit, July 9, 2011
Earlier this morning, Yingluck faced the foreign press at a conference inside the Pheu Thai Party HQ, where she was also asked about this. TAN Network tweeted later today:
Yingluck says she is considering amending Article 112 involving lese majeste; denies she's meeting Thaksin
Tweet by @TAN_Network, July 9, 2011
Erm, no she didn't! Here is what she actually said ad verbatim:
Question: "Do you have any plan to change the 112 law?"
Answer: "No, for me, I don't have any idea to change the 112. I would not reform it, because it is not my policy and also this is an issue which is quite sensitive so we have to leave it to the people who have expertise to comment on that. I don't want to see the misuse of this law regarding his majesty."
TAN Network were in the same room as us, how could they get this so wrong?!
I do agree with BP (and several other Twitter users as discussed on Sunday) that even thinking about amending Article 112 would give their enemies an opportunity to paint the Pheu Thai Party and the red shirt movement (since they're all under Thaksin anyway, from their point of view) as anti-royalist. One has to question how the next government will reduce the misuse of this law without any form of change in one way or another...?
Round-up of day one after Thailand's elections
Originally published at Siam Voices on July 4, 2011 Just in case you haven't been following our live-blog yesterday, the opposition Pheu Thai Party (PT) have won the majority of the votes paving the way for Yingluck Shinawatra to become Thailand's first female prime minister. Bangkok Pundit has his take about the morning after, which I initially wanted to write about as well. But over the course of Monday after elections, things moved very quickly:
First off, outgoing prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has resigned from his position as leader of the Democrat Party and seeks no re-election even if the party members want him to. He's taking responsibility from the big election defeat and makes room for a new party leader, that could be either outgoing finance minister Korn Chatikavanij or former Bangkok governor Apirak Kosayodhin.
Then over noon, Yingluck has met with several representatives of other parties over lunch for coalition talks, just already to announce a five-party governing coalition after it, with Chat Thai Pattana (as of now, unofficially 19 seats), Chat Pattana Phua Pandin (7), Palang Chon (7) and Mahachon (1), together with Pheu Thai's 265 forming a comfortable majority of 299 seats of the total 500 in the parliament. Why 299 you might ask? "299 is a beautiful number," is what Yingluck said...
Of course, all eyes are also looking at the military whether they will accept the outcome of the elections or if they will intervene, fearing a return of Thaksin. So far, they seem to stay put - outgoing defense minister General Prawit Wongsuwon told AFP he accepts the results and, after having talked with military leaders, will not get involved. Speaking of, the normally very outspoken commander-in-chief General Prayuth Chan-ocha has essentially given himself a gag order until a new government has been formed. Also,
In the meantime, there're still a lot of questions left from Sunday's election, like...
Why did the exit polls get it so horribly wrong? Right after the polls closed at 3pm, the exit polls predicted a huge landslide win for Pheu Thai with about 270 to well above 300 seats. But in the late afternoon and evening these number have proven to be greatly exaggerated - the margins of error where somewhere from 13.8 per cent to a whopping 22.8 per cent. Nevertheless, many people (including this author) got very excited in the heat of the moment and already were calling it based on these numbers. We should have known better that all these Thai polls have a notorious track record of being very wrong - so we all got eggs on out faces, but the pollsters have now some explaining to do:
Turakij Bandit Poll director blamed uncontrollable factors for the high error margins. He said that although the sampling process followed standard procedures, pollsters could not get enough Democrat Party supporters to take part in the exit polls, whereas Pheu Thai supporters such as red shirts who are politically active were more willing to speak their minds. Dusit Poll director Sukhum Chaloeisub agreed, saying most Democrat supporters were not accessible, while Pheu Thai backers were more politically expressive.
"Exit polls blasted for huge margins of error", The Nation, July 4, 2011
What's the voter turnout? Again, prediction and reality have proven to be two different things, even though not to such a large extend concerning the voter turnout. Many pundits have projected that at least 75 per cent of the electorate will go to the polls, while the Election Commission has now announced that it could be 66 per cent, which is of course much lower than expected. Throughout Sunday, voters were urged to cast their ballots sooner or later since in many parts of the country bad weather was fore-casted, but we'll have to wait for the official results, which brings us to...
When will we know the full unofficial results? It was announced to be published on Monday noon, but it has been postponed to Tuesday, because the results from a few districts in Mae Hong Son and Ranong province are not yet in, since these are reportedly cut off due to bad weather. Let the conspiracy theories begin...!
There are still many questions yet to be answered and many new questions will arise over the next few days, e.g. who will get which cabinet post? What will the new opposition do? Who got a seat in the House and who didn't? And were there less frauds in this elections? The next days will still be interesting!
Pheu Thai Party rallies in Nakhon Ratchasima - a photo essay
Originally published at Siam Voices on July 1, 2011
On June 29, 2011 - the last week before the election - the leader and prime minister candidate of the opposition Pheu Thai Party, Yingluck Shinawatra was on a campaign tour through the north-eastern part of the country, also known as Isaan. Stations include Ubon Ratchathani and Si Saket. The last station of her swing through Isaan was in Nakhon Ratchasima (Korat). Before her arrival, the supporters waiting in front of the city hall were warmed up by red shirt leader and MP candidate Nattawut Saikua. With a small delay, Yingluck arrived at the stage and was greeted by the ecstatic cheers of estimated 6,000 supporters.
Saksith Saiyasombut is a Thai blogger and journalist currently based in Bangkok. He can be followed on Twitter @Saksith.