Short Notice: Academic Conference on Thai Politics in Trier
Short notice: I'll be gone during this weekend to Trier for an academic conference on Thai politics. Their website is www.thailand-tagung2010.de Hope it will be interesting and the topics and discussions will surely result in a blog post or two.
Have a nice weekend!
UPDATE: Venue Changed! – Announcing: Panel on the Thai Political Crisis at the University of Hamburg
Note: Official announcement in German language below.
I'm happy to announce one of the reasons why I have been very busy the last few weeks: The student body of the faculty of Thai Studies at the University Hamburg, Germany (which I'm a member of) are hosting a panel discussion on the ongoing political crisis in Thailand. Since events of this kind about this topic on an academic level are rare in Germany, this is a great opportunity to fill this void.
We have invited, in my opinion, the best German-speaking experts on Thailand to discuss the causes, the protagonists, the issues of the political situation and are also trying to answer the question, if there is a way out of it.
The speakers are Dr. Wolfram Schaffar, political scientist at the University of Hildesheim and Dr. Marco Bünte, research fellow with the GIGA Institute of Asian Studies. Oh, and some Thai blogger is also on the panel...
Prof. Volker Grabowsky, head of the department of Southeast Asian Studies, will give an introductory essay.
The title of the event is "Thailand am Scheideweg?" ("Thailand at the Crossroads?") and takes place on Monday, 5 July 2010 at 18.30h at lecture room C in the main building at the University of Hamburg. Note: this event is in German.
If you know anybody in or near Hamburg, please pass this on to them!
------------------------Official German announcement------------------------
Der Fachschaftsrat der Thaiistik an der Universität Hamburg lädt ein:
"Thailand am Scheideweg?" Podiumsdiskussion zur politischen Krise in Thailand
Diskussionsteilnehmer: Dr. Wolfram Schaffar, Universität Hildesheim Dr. Marco Bünte, GIGA-Institut für Asienstudien Saksith Saiyasombut, Student und Blogger
Einleitender Vortrag: Prof. Dr. Volker Grabowsky, Leiter der Abteilung Südostasien, Universität Hamburg
Für zwei Monate waren große Teile Bangkoks von den größten politischen Demonstrationen des Landes lahm gelegt worden. Die so genannte „Vereinigte Front für Demokratie und gegen Diktatur“ (UDD), auch bekannt als die „Rothemden“, protestierte gegen die Regierung von Premierminister Abhisit Veijajiva und forderte diese auf, das Parlament aufzulösen und Neuwahlen auszurufen. Die Proteste wurden am 19. Mai 2010 nach einer mehrtägigen militärischen Operation aufgelöst. Insgesamt kamen bei gewaltsamen Ausschreitungen in den zwei Monaten über 85 Menschen ums Leben, über 2000 wurden verletzt. Seit dem Militärputsch gegen den damaligen Premierminister Thaksin Shinawatra im Jahr 2006 befindet sich das Königreich Thailand in einer politischen Krise, die das Land immer mehr in zwei politische Lager spaltet.
Die Abteilung Sprachen und Kulturen Südostasiens und der Fachschaftsrat Thaiistik an der Universität Hamburg lädt zu einer Podiumsdiskussion mit Thailand-Experten ein, um zu ergründen, wie es weiter in Thailand gehen soll. Wie konnte es zu dieser politischen Krise kommen? Wer sind diese politischen Fronten und was sind ihre Positionen? Hat die Demokratie in Thailand noch eine Chance?
Zeit: Montag, 5. Juli 2010, 18.30 Uhr bis 20.30 Uhr Ort: Hörsaal C, Hauptgebäude, Universität Hamburg, Edmund-Siemers-Allee 1, 20146 Hamburg
:)
The Unbelievable Rise of Col. Sansern's Popularity
Col. Sansern Kaewkamnerd at work (Screenshot from CRES announcement, May 16)
Let's make this short: there are many things that I cannot simply understand! This is one of them.
For some incomprehensible reason Col. Sansern Kaewkamnerd, military spokesperson and as seen on dozens of CRES TV announcements during the red shirt riots in earlier this year, has become a darling of the local Thai media.
It all begun late last month when The Nation ran a series of high-praising articles of him including this journalistic gem:
He's been on primetime television every other day recently. He's that guy in uniform who catches every woman's eye. He makes viewers giggle despite the tension, and has a smile to melt the coldest heart. With his winning personality, he has to be a strong contender for Man of the Year award. (...)
However, since the red-shirt protests began in March, he has become a favourite across the whole country - and many women's secret crush. Right now, he's even beating big-screen heartthrob Theeradej "Ken" Wongpuapan in the popularity stakes.
As one of his avid supporters, I've joined every fan club for Sansern on Facebook, watched every video clip of him posted on YouTube and even looked up his profile through Google. And yes, when I met him, I was star-struck! The chance to meet my hero came when a senior reporter I am shadowing at The Nation said she was going to interview the colonel. I begged to tag along.
"Saluting the kingdom's coolest colonel", The Nation, May 30, 2010
Why are you so admired for your role as CRES spokesman? / You got higher votes than popular actor Ken Thiradej in a recent poll. Why could that be? / Has Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva persuaded you to enter politics? / Has your wife teased you about your fan club? / Given the fan club and the popularity you have as CRES spokesman, do you think your job is successful? / What makes you good-humoured?
Taken from: "Staying cool under fire", by Budsarakham Sinlapalavan & Nathapat Promkaew, The Nation, June 28, 2010
To top it off there is this exclusive video showing the contents of his bag. Notice the lady reporters reaction when he pulls something specific out...
But that is still not the end of his media tour de force. In the last days and weeks, Col. Sansern did appears on not one, not two, but three frigging high-gloss magazine covers (or cover stories)!
Seriously ladies, what is it with this guy and the sudden popularity? Is it because he appeared more often on TV than Abhisit did in recent times? This is one of the stories that truly deserve the "WTF?!"-tag...
New MICT Minister Stays the Course to Censorship
After the fallout of the no-confidence vote of June 4, the cabinet has been reshuffled and all Puea Paendin ministers have been thrown out. One post very prominent post that was affected by the change is the Minister of Information and Communication Technology (MICT). The infamous Ranongruk Suwunchwee has been replaced by Juti Krairiksh of the Democrat Party. And the first order of the new minister was...
The Thai cabinet Tuesday approved the creation of a new cyber crime agency to stamp out online criticism of the revered monarchy.The government, which has removed tens of thousands of web pages in recent years for insulting the royal family, said the main task of the Bureau of Prevention and Eradication of Computer Crime would be to protect the monarchy."The monarchy is crucial for Thai national security because it is an institution that unifies the entire nation," government spokesman Watchara Kanikar said."Thailand sets up unit to tackle websites insulting royals", AFP, June 15, 2010
Ok, this probably was planned before the new minister took the helm of the MICT. In fact, according to a Bangkok Post article, this task came from way up the order.
A parliamentary showdown caused a cabinet reshuffle caused the end of the career of the best information and technology minister Thailand has had since 2009; farewell Ranongruk Suwunchwee, who transformed the ministry from a mere communications technology bureaucracy into a true Ministry of Internet Censorship of Thailand (MICT); also looking for work will be Ms Rangongruk's spouse Pairote, who will presumably lose his unofficial but thriving office at the ICT ministry; it will be difficult for new minister and Democrat Party functionary Juti Krairiksh to live up to the standard of the previous censor, but he insisted he was up to the task; within days of taking office, Juti confirmed that Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva had personally instructed him that monitoring websites was one of the three most important jobs he would ever perform for the country.
"Censorship baton passes", Bangkok Post, June 16, 2010
And to emphasize his calling even more he said this:
Mr Juti added that the warnings was not intended to violate freedom of opinions because Thailand is not a dictatorial country. The government has given too much freedom for its citizens, this time it only asks the website owners to control their web contents without violating other people’s rights.
"MICT to curb violations of Computer Act", National News Bureau of Thailand, June 15, 2010
Just to give some perspective, this is what the government has 'achieved' so far:
There is also the issue of censorship itself with Prachactai reporting CRES blocked more 1,150 websites in last week of May alone, while Freedom Against Censorship Thailand (FACT) recently claimed ”the aggregate total [of websites] blocked so far is over 65,000”.
"Thai Government Introduces Internet Censorship Agency", Jon Russel, June 17, 2010
Kavi Chongkittavorn of The Nation has commented on the government's efforts so far:
The government is willing to spend an additional hundreds-of-millions of baht to track down and shut the websites and their URLs. But the end result would remain the same - more would appear. No matter how Thai authorities want to censor the Internet, they will not succeed. That has been the past practice with valuable lessons learned.
So far, online censorship has had only negative repercussions on Thailand and its online users because it blocks public access to information and commercial transactions worldwide.
It gives Thailand extremely bad publicity and reputation - something the country can ill afford to have at this crucial time. Thai authorities often said they have no option but to shut down these websites, which in their view, have committed "lese majeste," which literally means "injury to the monarch."
Such bureaucratic responses were mostly knee-jerks. (...)
Question is: are there better ways to handle the online proliferation of defamatory remarks about the monarchy in ways that would not impair the freedom of expression in this country?
Of course, there are workable approaches. But they would require extraordinary efforts that would include close consultation, openness and transparency from all parties.
One must not forget Thailand used to be among the world's top thirty countries (Freedom House, 2000) with long-standing press freedom. However, since former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra came to power in 2001, the index of press freedom has suffered a free fall, leaving Thailand only a partly free country.
With continued political crisis, the Thai media has yet to recuperate and gain free press creditability. Although the Abhisit government has a liberal attitude towards media freedom, the PM has not been able to enforce his vision in full.
"Thailand must rethink online censorship", The Nation, June 21, 2010
The article also addresses the recently set up "Advisory Committee on National Security Cases Involving the Monarchy" and what cases it has to deal with. It's worth a read.
The problem with such rigorous censorship is that is the beginning of a slippery slope that the end justify all means, whatever the costs. Also, a well-known and old problem is the constant uncertainty what is actually allowed and what is already illegal. It is the same problem that the regulators face each time they have to decide when to report a site or not. Since in this heated political climate those on the side of the government are more eager to pledge loyalty to the King and thus, when in doubt, it is more safe to block a site - processes become subject to gut feelings.
via Jon Russel and Bangkok Pundit
Asia Society Live-Webcast With Special Envoy Kiat Sittheeamorn
The Asia Society, a US-based non-profit pan-Asia organization, will host a live webcast event with Kiat Sittheeamorn, a member of the Democrat Party and currently Thai Special Envoy to New York and Washington. The event takes place Monday, June 14 beginning at 4 PM EST / 10 PM CEST / 3 AM Bangkok time and will be streamed live at www.AsiaSociety.org/Live. The topic will be (of course) the current situation in Thailand. A recent interview with Politico gives a taste of Kiat's (and ultimately the government's) talking points. Excerpt:
POLITICO: What is the purpose of your visit here?
Sittheeamorn: Things are more or less back to normal. We tried to monitor the views of various countries, and what we have observed is that some of the international media’s reporting in the past few weeks has been a little bit incomplete, in many cases inaccurate.
"Interview with Thailand's special envoy", POLITICO, June 11, 2010
Earlier this weekend Kiat was in Washington D.C. and met with diplomats to basically say that everything is in control and they do not need the US (or anyone else) to act as a mediator.
A special envoy from Thailand has sought US support in the country's political crisis, discouraging the kingdom's longtime ally from trying to mediate in the wake of bloody street protests. (...)
Kiat, who met with members of Congress and President Barack Obama's administration on Friday, said that the Thai government welcomed US "suggestions" but was pursuing its own reconciliation plan.
"We ourselves also see some difficulties in negotiating and discussing with the Red Shirts," Kiat told AFP. "If the US extends a helping hand, I don't know if it will have different results."
"There is also the risk that it might complicate the issue even further," said Kiat, who is Thailand's trade negotiator.
"Thai government tells US it's in charge", AFP, June 12, 2010
Burmese Arrested Among Redshirts
Thirteen Burmese migrant workers are among the hundreds of anti-government Redshirt protesters currently being held by the Thai authorities, according to a Burmese advocacy group in Thailand. The group, the Thai Action Committee for Democracy in Burma (TACDB), confirmed that 13 of the 422 detained Redshirt protesters identified by the Thai government earlier this week are Burmese nationals.
The Burmese detainees, all of whom are men, remain in police custody. Ten are being held at a police station in Pathum Thani Province, two others are in another province and the remaining one is in a special detention center, according to TACDB.
“We don't know if they were arrested during the protests or because they violated the recent nighttime curfew,” said Myint Wai, an official from TACDB, adding that his group is now trying to provide legal counsel to the detained Burmese. (...)
"Burmese Among Redshirt Detainees", The Irrawaddy, June 12, 2010
Chambers: The Challenges for Thailand’s Military
New Mandala has posted a guest article by Paul Chambers, a senior research fellow at the University of Heidelberg, Germany and an expert on civil-military relations in southeast Asia, about the Thai military and its upcoming challenges. Key excerpt:
In the aftermath of the May 19 victory over the Red Shirts and Thaksin, Thailand’s military officer corps appears united above, but fissured below. (...) But the perils facing the Queen's Guard will be less likely to arise from Thailand’s elected civilian governments given their temporary and frail character—especially with Thaksin still on the run. Rather, the clique’s greatest challenge will be to diminish internal military resentment from junior officers and thus ensure its enhanced control over the armed forces. If Prem and Surayud successfully balance various military classes to perpetuate Queen’s Guard military control, then some semblance of unity within an arch-royalist armed forces may well persevere. Yet if such balancing is not undertaken or proves unsuccessful, then internal military divisions could become increasingly violent."The challenges for Thailand’s arch-royalist military", by Paul Chambers, New Mandala, June 9, 2010
Chambers give a very detailed account into the structure of the army's current top command line, its origin and what lies ahead. I recommend you to read it.
Govt Survives Vote of Confidence But Coalition Partners At Each Other's Throat
246 - 186 - 11 for PM Abhisit Veijajiva, 245 - 187 - 11 for Deputy PM Suthep Thaugsuban, 244 - 187 - 12 for Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij and 239 - 190 - 15 for Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya. These are the bold numbers that show the government has survived yet another battle as politics came back to parliament earlier this week as it faced a vote of no confidence regarding the military crackdown on the anti-government red shirt protesters on May 19 and unsurprisingly, there was a lot of bad blood boiling before the vote.
From the time the debate opened on Monday morning until its close on Tuesday, bitter and heated exchanges have highlighted the depth of animosity and distrust between those aligned to the anti-government Redshirts, on the one hand, and the Democrat party-led government, on the other.
While the words exchanged were blunt, giving the debate an air of transparency and frankness, they were not necessarily truthful or accurate. But then such is the way in almost any parliament in the world. The difference is that this debate took place after unprecedented violence on the streets of Bangkok.
And while heated discussion of a variety of incendiary and controversial issues is part and parcel of what parliamentary debate is about in a healthy democracy, it remains to be seen whether the acrimonious debate smoothes the way for Abhisit's reconciliation plan. (...)
Peua Thai MP and Redshirt leader Jatuporn Promphan accused the government of trying to hide the truth about the recent clashes, while the government in turn accused the protestors of harming their own people to discredit the government and security forces. Focusing on Deputy Prime Minister Suthep, Jatuporn said that the government “accuses us of paying people to die.” He added that, “If I can hire someone, I would pay for Suthep to die.” (...)
Puea Thai Party Chairman Chalerm Yoobamrung questioned a number of government ministers, including the prime minister. His interrogation included a grilling of Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya, whom he accused of “wretched and vile comments” about the Thai monarchy in a speech that Kasit gave at Johns Hopkins University in April.
"Mantras, Misperceptions and Mutual Acrimony in Thai MP Debate", The Irrawaddy, June 2, 2010
The last paragraph is referring to Kasit's (unusually for him) level-headed remarks about the Thai monarchy during a long (usual) rant about Thaksin and countries that are allegedly helping him.
The parliamentary debate went on for hours, partly had to be stopped at 2 AM in the morning with the MPs still at each other's throat (if anyone was still watching the complete live broadcast on TV). I was only (physically and mentally) able to occasionally drop in out onto the house sessions for some minutes at a time. But from what I heard during the debates, the rhetoric on both sides (during the times I switched to) was at least as fierce as it was during the protests from the red shirt stage - aggressive, rude and at times borderline ugly. The politicians did nothing to win back the trust of the people into the political institutions. The much promotoed "reconciliation" of Abhisit is nowhere to be seen.
While it appeared before the vote that the opposition Puea Thai Party has some problems keeping their MPs in line, another battle line was drawn inside the coalition as Bhumjaithai Party's Interior Minister Chavarat Charnvirakul and Transport Minister Sohpon Zraum have failed to get the minimum 238 votes to survive the no confidence vote (236 and 234 respectively). All eyes were on the Pheua Phaendin Party, whose MPs were allowed to freely vote for or against the ministers and apparently 10 of them did vote against Chavarat and Sohpon. The aftermath is now is ugly:
Bhumjaithai lashed out at Puea Pandin following the no-confidence debate yesterday accusing it of "back-stabbing" and demanding that it leave the coalition.
Puea Pandin MPs either cast votes of no confidence or abstained from voting yesterday for Interior Minister Chavarat Charnvirakul, the Bhumjaithai leader, and Transport Minister Sohpon Zarum.
Newin Chidchob, Bhumjaithai's de facto leader, was particularly upset by the perceived slight. A government source said the party powerbroker told Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and Deputy Premier Suthep Thaugsuban, the government manager, that Puea Pandin's actions were unacceptable.
The row between the two partners has simmered for some time with Bhumjaithai said to have the upper hand.
The parties have locked horns over local development budget allocations and the annual transfer of state officials.
There is also an unsettled score involving political wrangling in the lower Northeast between Boonjong Wongtrairat and Mr Newin of Bhumjaithai, and Pinij Charusombat and Pairote Suwunchwee of Puea Pandin.
Mr Newin is also believed to hold a personal grudge against Kasem Rungthanakiat, who turned to Mr Pairote's party instead of joining Bhumjaithai when the People Power Party was dissolved. Mr Kasem's move to Puea Pandin quashed Mr Newin's hopes of consolidating his political stronghold in the lower Northeast.
"Coalition rivals face off", Bangkok Post, June 3, 2010
Worse, Bhumjaithai is now demanding the Phuea Phaendin Party to be thrown out of the coalition. As of now, the Democrat Party was considering to reshuffle the cabinet:
The Puea Pandin Party is expected to be removed from the government coalition in a coming cabinet reshuffle, a highly-placed source in the government says. Democrat secretary-general Suthep Thaugsuban has bowed to the demand of Bhumjaithai Party de facto leader Newin Chidchob to remove Puea Pandin from the coalition.
The source yesterday said Mr Suthep had agreed to Mr Newin's plan after hearing how he could make up for the reduced number of coalition MPs in parliament without Puea Pandin. The coalition government would be left with 22 fewer votes of support through the departure of Puea Pandin.
Puea Pandin has 32 MPs, but 10 come under the influence of Pol Gen Pracha Promnok and they did not support the administration in the first place. The source said Mr Newin had given assurances to Mr Suthep that he could find adequate support to stabilise the coalition alliance following Puea Pandin's departure.
Mr Newin's plan calls for the coalition to keep at least 11 votes: five from the Ban Rim Nam faction of Puea Pandin which supports the government and six from the Matubhumi and Pracharaj parties, which are now in the opposition and each hold three seats in the lower house.
The government also might secure six or eight more seats if Puea Pandin MP for Udon Thani Chaiyos Jiramethakarn can talk his colleagues into leaving the party.
The source said Mr Newin had suggested the three groups be given a deputy ministerial post each. Mr Chaiyos's group might be given a ministerial post if more than eight seats could be secured.
"Puea Pandin On Way Out", Bangkok Post, June 4, 2010
The article goes on about the ministerial posts that could be affected by the reshuffle. In the current cabinet, there are four Phuea Phaendin posts: the Deputy Minister of Education, the Minister of Industry, the Deputy Minister of Finance and the infamous Minister for Information and Technology. The last three could fall into the hands of the Democrat Party if Phuea Phaendin is thrown out.
As for the balance of power in the parliament, the current five-party-coalition (including Democrat Party with 172 and Bhumjai, Phuea Phaendin 32 seats each) has 270 seats, while the opposition Puea Thai Party has 189 and the remaining 16 seats are split between 3 minor parties. If the 32 Phuea Phaendin MPs are thrown out, the coalition is left with 238 seats, just one more than the opposition. So the horsetrading is no surprise with attempts to convince certain Phuea Phaendin MPs, but also the smaller opposition parties to jump ship and change the sides. The decision is to take place Friday.
Even if everything turns out okay for the coalition, with Phuea Phaendin on board or not, this alliance will be even shakier than before. What also became apparent with the fallout between the second and third largest coalition parties is that there is hardly any traditional political alliances between parties as seen in many European democracies, many politicians just want to be where the sun shines the brightest and are willing to do almost anything, many of the parties had no problems to align themselves with the now disbanded Thaksin-proxy People's Power Party.
The tragedy in this whole issue is that parliament has shown its ugly side again when the censure sessions deteriorated to just a shouting-match at times. Does anybody still think about the red shirts, the deaths of the protests and the roots of the problems, that got us here in the first place?