Thailand’s opposition searches for a leader
Originally published at Siam Voices on March 23, 2011 With a potential snap election looming in the not-so-distant future all political parties are preparing for a very short, but certainly intense, campaign. For the opposition Puea Thai party (PT) this means finding a new leader and a promising PM candidate. But not much has changed since last year when then-leader Yongyuth Wichaidit was bizarrely re-elected just days after he resigned (see my and Bangkok Pundit's previous posts here and here, respectively). In fact, more contenders have entered the scene.
Last week's censure debate was a good opportunity for Puea Thai not only to attack the government on their countless wrongdoings and thus present them in a bad light, but also for some MPs to audition as the next leader of the party or even of the country. The opposition agreed for Mingkwan Saengsuwan to lead the parliamentary grilling. The former Toyota executive and former Commerce Minister is described as soft-spoken but also largely unknown to the public. And while the mud-slinging was left to others, Mingkwan tried to portray himself as the next PM. Bangkok Post's columnist Suranand Vejjajiva wrote about his performance:
So far Mr Mingkwan has performed better than expected. He was calm and able to control his opening delivery which listed all the allegations of abuse, corruption and mismanagement of the current administration. Although listeners were somewhat distracted by his 119 plates of prepared PowerPoint display, this performance surpassed his previous speeches. If he can tie up the loose ends and make a convincing closing statement tonight, his path towards leading Puea Thai would become clearer.
"Win-lose-draw in the censure debate", by Suranand Vejjajiva, Bangkok Post, March 18, 2011
That also applies to the rest of the sessions, going so far as to announce in his closing speech that he'd be the party's candidate to contest against Abhisit in the next election (btw, the government unsurprisingly survived the no-confidence vote). Nevertheless, or maybe because of that, Mingkwan was criticized for his performance by his own party:
Pheu Thai Party MPs will take their party list MP Mingkwan Saengsuwan to task for "overpresenting" himself as the PM candidate of Pheu Thai during last week's censure motion, a source said yesterday. (...)
Some party MPs are disappointed with Mingkwan's performance in grilling the government saying he spent too much time on the floor wooing voters instead of launching a stinging attack, causing a party setback, the source said.
"Pheu Thai MPs critical of party's censure performance", The Nation, March 21, 2011
And worse, during a general meeting on Tuesday, where a new party leader should have been nominated, Mingkwan was left hung out to dry because the party members couldn't decide on a new front-runner. Part of the plan was to make him the new head of PT and to introduce his restructuring plan for the party. But the plan was thwarted by none other than...
However, Thaksin, who is the party's de facto leader, passed a message to the meeting blocking the group's plan saying it was not the right time to make a choice. The party could continue its activities under its current structure which would not cause it any harm.
Earlier, there had been speculation that Thaksin would choose between Mr Mingkwan and his sister Yingluck Shinawatra, considered an outsider to be the party's candidate for premier.
"Thaksin leaves Mingkwan dangling", Bangkok Post, March 23, 2011
The role of Thaksin in the Puea Thai Party should not be underestimated*. The party is still very much loyal to him and the fact that members are still meeting and consulting him for key decisions indicates that Thaksin is still calling the shots in the re-re-incarnation of his former Thai Rak Thai party. Since late last year, it was reported that he wants to 'install' his own sister Yingluck as the new party leader.
Yingluck Shinawatra is the youngest sibling of Thaksin and an experienced business executive, having served at the family-owned AIS communications and now working at SC Asset, a property firm with the Shinawatra family as the largest major shareholder (conflict of interest, anyone?). Although she is not a party executive or even a member and has virtually no political experience, she claims to have attended several party executive meetings. Despite showing no clear sign of any political ambitions and even just recently ruling out a potential candidacy, Yingluck is still being brokered as the top contender at PT. She is also blessed by the support of somebody, who was just recently considered a front-runner as well.
Those backing her include Puea Thai chairman of MPs Chalerm Yubamrung, who has been disgruntled by Mr Mingkwan's attempt to take the party's helm. The veteran politician has threatened to quit the party if Mr Mingkwan is successful.
"Yingluck rules out taking Puea Thai helm", Bangkok Post, March 28, 2011
Chalerm, a seasoned politician for over 25 years, has made no qualms in the past about his contempt towards Mingkwan. Already earlier this year he threatened to leave the party should Mingkwan lead the censure debates and on Wednesday, as a consequence of being snubbed...
Veteran politician Chalerm Yubamrung has resigned as a party-list MP, but remains a member of the Puea Thai Party, Si Sa Ket MP Thanes Kruerat said on Wednesday. (...)
Asked about a report that Mr Chalerm felt belittled when asked by Chaturon Chaisaeng, a former executive of the dissolved Thai Rak Thai Party and an adviser to Puea Thai's censure debate team, to cut short his debate speech in the House of Representatives, to allow Mingkwan Saengsuwan more time to deliver his conclusion, Mr Thanes admitted that this might also be a reason.
"Miffed Chalerm resigns MP seat", Bangkok Post, March 23, 2011
So that pretty much leaves us with Yingluck and Mingkwan. If Mingkwan becomes the front-runner, it means for the party a step away from Thaksin, since the party restructuring may or may not be a means to lessen the influence of the exiled former prime minister. If Yingluck becomes the party's new leader, it's underlining Thaksin's influence in the Puea Thai Party and strengthening his position as the de-facto leader who pulls the strings even from outside the country. The party has announced that it will reveal its PM candidate after the parliament has dissolved, which should in the coming months. Until then, they will have to assess their options and ultimately decide which way they will go into the next elections.
*I should stress that no one should fall for the over-simplified "Red Shirts = Puea Thai Party = Thaksin" fallacy that many of their enemies would like us to think. Though there are overlapping intersections between these three areas (e.g. red shirt leader Jatuporn is a Puea Thai MP), in my opinion there are (like in any other movement) different visions among the red shirts and part of them want to move beyond Thaksin. But on the other hand, seeing Jatuporn still on stage and Thaksin still phoning-in during the rallies show that the leaders might be one step behind their followers.
Thai deputy PM: Protesters died because they ran into bullets
Originally published at Siam Voices on March 8, 2011 Here's a quote by deputy prime minister Suthep Thaugsuban from a few days ago:
เราไม่คิดเข่นฆ่าประชาชน ไม่เคยใช้กำลังเจ้าหน้าที่ตำรวจทหารเข้าสลายการชุมนุม แต่ที่ตายเพราะวิ่งเข้ามาใส่
We had no intentions to kill our people, we have never ordered the police and the army to use force during the dispersal of the [red shirt] protest but those [who got] killed ran into [the bullets]*.
""เทือก"ลั่นได้ 300 เสียงไม่ง้อ "เนวิน-เติ้ง" แนะจับตาศึกซักฟอกศอกกลับฝ่ายค้าน", ASTV, March 5, 2011
I don't where to start here...! First off, this remark was done during a lecture called "Democrat Ideology" ("อุดมการณ์ประชาธิปัตย์") at a seminar named "The new generation, the Thai future" ("รุ่นใหม่ อนาคตไทย"). More can be read here in Thai.
Suthep has always been a gaffe-tastic politician, who regularly puts his foot in mouth. But this is a new low even for him. Is he really suggesting that these 90 killed and thousands of injured people were just unlucky to ran into the bullets? Is he suggesting the Japanese cameraman and the Italian journalist were victims of their own fault because they ran into the crossfire? Are the nurses and medical workers killed because they just couldn't wait to treat the wounded until the shooting is over? Were those six killed at Wat Pathum Wanaram accidentally shot because they ran for cover from the soldiers on the elevated Skytrain tracks shooting at them? How far can anyone be further from reality?
I could go on forever with this rant, but this shows that Suthep, the DSI and all other authorties are dishonest and not caring about the truth, since it means to take responsibility. All the talks about fear that a hasted investigation might cause unrest is just an excuse not to face the problems at hand and what they seem to realized the least is that the more this drags on, the more attempts to put a blanket over what happened, the wound will not heal and this will eventually lead to more unrest!
h/t to @KrisKoles and Bangkok Pundit
UPDATE: In case anyone thinks that Suthep was misquoted by one source there, you can read this very quote not only at ASTV, but also at Khao Sod, Thai Rath, Spring News and also on Suthichai Yoon's site - they all report the same insane quote!
UPDATE 2: As Bangkok Pundit points out in his take on the story the same quote also appeared on state media channel MCOT and astonishingly also on the website of the RTAF’s Directorate of Intelligence. Also, the fact that not one single Thai news organization has not picked up on this story, neither Thai or English language, speaks volume...!
*Note: For the sake of transparency it should be noted that the brackets were added at a later time.
Unarmed forces: Thai army suffers first weapon theft of the year
Originally published at Siam Voices Media outlets have reported on Friday that over 130 weapons have been stolen from an army arsenal at 1st Infantry Battalion at the army's Infantry Centre in Prachuap Khiri Khan province. The disappearance was noted during an inspection by a commander of the battalion and quickly reported local police on Thursday night. The weapons missing make up quite an impressive loot:
Capt Apiwat [Saengsoong, a company commander of the 1st Infantry Battalion] said the weapons found to be missing were: 117 M16 rifles, ten 11mm handguns, ten rocket propelled grenade (RPG) launchers, five M79 grenade launchers, four M60 machine guns, one 60mm mortar, four Minimi light machineguns and a large quantity of assorted ammunition.
"Guns missing from arsenal, sergeant-major flees", Bangkok Post, February 4, 2011
During the day, some weapons have been found though:
On Friday morning Lt-Col Manorot and military police went to search the house of a sergeant major who was suspected to have stolen the weapons, and found part of the missing arsenal. However, the sergeant major was not there. He fled before military police arrived.
"Guns missing from arsenal, sergeant-major flees", Bangkok Post, February 4, 2011
Army weapons being stolen are a regular occurrence with at least two similar incidents reported in the last 12 months - the last one in September in Lop Buri and the other in March earlier that year from a base in the southern province of Phatthalung. In both incidents, there were no signs of break-ins or any other traces of force. All-in-all, a pretty big embarrassment for the armed forces.
The question now in such cases is what happens with the weapons and where do they go. In this particular case, the suspicion seems to be already very clear:
The source said the sergeant major who had fled was known to be involved in illegal arms trading. Nobody knew which groups he had sold weapons to -- be they Karen on the Thai-Burmese border, the red-shirts or southern insurgents.
"Guns missing from arsenal, sergeant-major flees", Bangkok Post, February 4, 2011
Also, to underline that this is not a new phenomenon The Straits Times wrote about this matter back in October.
Most of this war material went overland to insurgents in Burma and Laos, (...) But it is the domestic sourcing that is likely most relevant to the unsettled atmosphere now prevalent in Thailand.
Weaponry obtained in Thailand and destined for the black market trade originated mainly from local military stocks or from unscrupulous arms dealers. (...)
"According to a Bangkok-based intelligence source," I wrote in 2000, "one method of siphoning from Thai army stocks involves over-reporting the amount of ammunition consumed during training exercises."
The paper further notes: "Locally- sourced military equipment is largely purloined from Royal Thai Army stocks. This includes material simply stolen from storage areas and material obtained with the collusion of corrupt military personnel who over-report usage and siphon off the excess.
"Arms trafficking in Thailand not a new phenomenon", by Robert Karniol, The Straits Times, October 18, 2010
The author points out the attempts to link the disappearance of the weapons to radical, violent elements of the red shirts or a third party inciting chaos in order to destabilize the national security and to discredit any anti-government movement, as seen during the red shirt protests last year where numerous explosions have occurred, mostly by M79 grenade launchers.
Shortly after the weapons theft in March 2010, there was a certain amount of fear that these would be used during the red shirts' protest that began shortly thereafter. Now we have yet another theft and also another upcoming red shirt protest next week - so let's see how long it will take until the finger pointing starts.
BONUS: For those who understand Thai I recommend to watch this post by @thaitvnews, where it shows that the army has denied the disappearance a few times until they have finally admitted that the weapons are gone...!
A new cavalry unit in Thailand's north-east: Old wish, new threat?
Originally published at Siam Voices on March 2, 2011 The Thai military is getting a new cavalry unit near the north-eastern town of Khon Kaen. The cabinet has recently approved the formation of the 3rd Cavalry Unit (essentially a division of tanks) that will cost 70bn Baht ($2.3bn). This is also a treat for privy council president Prem Tinsulanonda, who has mentioned that a third cavalry unit is a long-held one last wish, since he himself hails from the cavalry. But why is this approved now:
The new division of tanks will be a supportive unit for the Second Army Region serving along the northeastern border with Cambodia and Laos. (...)
Tanks played a key role in the fresh clash between the two neighbours when heavy weapons, including tank artillery, were involved at the border area near the Preah Vihear Temple from February 4-7.
"Cabinet approves new Army divisions", The Nation, February 2, 2011
Of course, why not use the recent clashes at the border as good opportunity to request more troops, equipment, vehicles and thus more money - not that the army isn't getting enough new toys in recent months.
But before the recent clashes at the Thai-Cambodian border the reasons for the new cavalry unit were a bit different:
The idea of setting up a 3rd Cavalry Division arose from army restructuring. The changing national security situation and perceived threats were taken into consideration when deciding on the restructuring, the supreme commander said.
"Cavalry unit for Khon Kaen eases closer", Bangkok Post, January 7, 2011
"National security situation"? I wonder what that means? Let's go back to last summer:
Apart from the 7th Division, the army also plans to set up the 3rd Cavalry Division in Khon Kaen. (...) Although sources said that the set-up of the two divisions will be developed concurrently, the 7th Infantry Division looks set to progress faster than the 3rd Cavalry as it requires a shorter time and smaller budget. The 3rd Cavalry division will require a budget of about 70 billion baht to establish, plus a timeframe of about 10 years. (...)
Politically speaking, there is every reason to believe that the 7th Division will be set up sooner than the 3rd Cavalry, especially when considering the mission of battling Thaksin Shinawatra and the red shirts, a task for which the government has no one to rely on but the military. With the 7th Division in place, the government would certainly benefit.
"Red presence forces military to establish new division", Bangkok Post, July 29, 2010
Oh, of course! Since Khon Kaen is considered to be a red shirts stronghold it does only make sense for the government and the army to try to gain more control over the region. Now what would they do?
After the crowd dispersal at Ratchaprasong intersection in Bangkok, the army under the Isoc recorded the names and addresses as well as ID cards of the red shirts involved before releasing them. The army then visited them at home to try to provide "healing" in its own inimitable way.
"Red presence forces military to establish new division", Bangkok Post, July 29, 2010
Guess these people are in the same annoyance level of door-to-door salesman and missionaries. Kidding aside, the plans to speed up all these military projects show the original intent of the armed forces -control of its own people. And with a military chief determined to protect the nation's highest institutions from what he sees as their enemies, one can see why. On the other hand though the military is at the moment busy with fighting at the Cambodian border for very dubious reasons.
Saksith Saiyasombut is a Thai journalist and blogger still based in Hamburg, Germany. He can be followed on Twitter @Saksith.
Thailand journalist death: More criticism of DSI probe
Originally published at Siam Voices on March 2, 2011 The most recent findings of Thailand's Department of Special Investigation (DSI) that the death of Japanese cameraman Hiro Muramoto during the clashes in Bangkok last April was not caused by the military draws more criticism (see our most recent coverage here and here). Both the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) and Reuters have voiced their concern about the findings and have pointed out the contradictions.
The DSI claims to have found "AK-47 bullet wound patterns" on Muramoto's body and since the Thai military is officially not using this rifle, they absolved the soldiers of any fault - despite contradicting a previous report that the Reuters cameraman was killed by a shot after "gunfire flashed from the direction of soldiers". Furthermore, there have been rumors that this comes after the army's chief of staff paid the DSI a visit to protest the previous finding.
Shortly after the announcement on Sunday, the Bangkok Post reported via a source how the DSI actually came to this conclusion:
The source said that while Pol Lt Gen Amporn might be providing advice to the DSI, he was not among the people who observed the autopsy to determine the cause of death of Muramoto. He was overseas at the time. Pol Lt Gen Amporn only analysed the cause of Muramoto's death from photos of the wounds on his body and concluded that the wounds were caused by an AK-47 rifle.
The panel itself had concluded that Muramoto was hit by two bullets fired from a high velocity gun, once in the head and the other in the heart, the source said. Given the pattern of his gun wounds, it was believed he was shot dead by a sniper, and normally snipers use an M16 rifle, not an AK, the source said.
The panel did not reach a conclusion about the exact type of weapons used in the killing of Muramoto and the other people because no bullets were found in any of the examined bodies, the source said.
"No firm view on AK-47 role in deaths", Bangkok Post, January 28, 2011
The latest to slam the DSI's finding is Metropolitan Police Bureau deputy chief Pol. Lt.-General Amnuay Nimmano. He said to the media that:
He said the DSI jumped to the conclusion the fatal shot must have been fired from the direction of a group of red shirts confronting the troops. For this information they relied on the dead man's camera, in which the last shots shown were of soldiers.
"It turns out that the camera's lens was covered, and the camera did not work the moment he was shot. A person can turn in any direction when [hit by a bullet]," said Amnuay. (...)
"It's DSI's own theory, own leads, own investigation and own conclusion, without police getting involved, and based on nothing convincing or credible. To put it simply, the conclusion is simply muddled," Amnuay said.
"Police refute DSI finding on shot cameraman", The Nation, March 3, 2011
My take: The moment I read about bullet patterns, I was (more than usually) skeptical. No bullets, just patterns!
As pointed out by in the comments on my previous article, even though the army does not use the AK-47 rifle it uses the same kind of 7.62 caliber bullets. These bullets are also used by the SR-25 and the SSG 3000 - both are sniper rifles used by the Thai armed forces. Military snipers were seen numerous times during the protests, especially during the crackdown in May 2010, and multiple witnesses claim to have seen armed men shooting from above during the April 10 clashes as well. So there is a possibility that Muramoto has been shot - deliberately or not - by military soldiers.
The DSI and their fact-finding are losing more credibility (not that they had much to begin with) with this apparent u-turn and with their inability to full shrug off rumors of colluding with the military, there's no other verdict than that this an active cover-up to evade full responsibility.
h/t to ricefieldradio for the aforementioned pointer