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The Nation is doing a 'Weng'

Dr. Weng Tojirakarn, red shirt and butt end of a terrible joke. (Screenshot by ThaiTVNews)

Many people tend to constantly bash the Thai press, sometimes rightfully so, sometimes not. Today is one of those days the former is the case. Cue to this piece by The Nation today...

You can bore your way to stardom. Just ask Weng Tojirakarn.

Two days of peace talks between the red shirts and the government have changed the eccentric doctor-turned-political-activist into an overnight celebrity, with teenagers now using his name as a slang and an online mockery game invented with his screaming face on it.

"Weng" now means "to confuse", "to bore" or even "to b***s***". If you hear a youngster say "Don't 'weng' me", it means, to put it politely, "stop talking nonsense".

"Doing a 'weng'", The Nation, March 31, 2010

Now, we could simply forget this little piece of irrelevant side trivia during a quite important political event if it wasn't for The Nation's editor Tulsathit Taptim, normally one of the more sane and decent journalists in the Kingdom. But he probably also got his funny bone tickled so hard that he couldn't stop tweeting about it all freaking day!

So dear The Nation newsroom, could you please stop with it? If not, go weng yourselfs!

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Government-Red Shirt Talks, Round 2

Screenshot by ThaiTVNews

The second round of negotiating talks between the government and their opposing red shirts have seen an increased amount of feisty words, but still lacking any breakthrough deal. Though some progress was there, as seen again for everyone on nationwide TV and radio.

Thailand's prime minister offered Monday to dissolve parliament by the end of the year, but protesters demanding he step down did not immediately accept the compromise, which could have helped resolve the country's political crisis.

(...) The Red Shirts are calling on Abhisit to take action within 15 days, but seemed to express some willingness to extend their deadline.

There were no agreements reached Monday, and even the question of further meetings was left in limbo.

"The negotiations with the government have come to an end. But just how we'd move on from here, I would have to discuss this with my people," Jatuporn told reporters afterward.

(...) Monday's meeting, which lasted two hours, began on a more combative note than Sunday's initial talks, with representatives of the two sides pointing fingers and interrupting each other.

"The current climate is marred with tension and violent tendencies," said Abhisit, in what appeared to be a reference to several unexplained nonfatal grenade attacks around Bangkok in recent days. "One of my concerns is that, as prime minister, I need to create a favorable climate for elections. I have to also consider the opinions of the greater public — who do not necessarily align with particular colors."

(...) Abhisit said he wanted time for his government to carry out such tasks as passing a new budget. But taking action at the end of the year would also allow him to oversee the annual reshuffle of the military, which often interferes in politics. (...)

"Thai PM offers to dissolve parliament by year end", The Associated Press, March 29, 2010

Initially on of the main argument points is if the constitutions has to be amended before, as the reds demanded, or after an election, which the government favors partly for the reasons stated above. It is up the to the red shirts now, whether they still want the government to dissolve now or accept a greater timeframe that could be the end of the year or a few months earlier as mentioned by the reds during the talks. The next (possible) meeting will be on Thursday as PM Abhisit is out of the country.

Full video of Tuesday's talks can be watched here.

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Red March on Bangkok - PM Abhisit Talks With Red Shirt Leaders UPDATED

UPDATE: Added two links, one with full video of the talk and Bangkok Pundit's summary of what's been said, down below. As we enter the third week of the anti-government protests by the red shirts, Sunday witnessed an interesting turn of events as prime minister Abhisit Vejjajva agreed to talk with the red shirt leaders, live on nationwide TV!

This is so far to a degree astonishing, since at the beginning of the day everything looked like another protest day with no concrete movement in any direction whatsoever. In the morning the red shirts have rallied at the 11th infantry regiment (again), where PM Abhisit resides since the start of the protests. Abhisit himself was not present at the military base, who hosted his weekly TV show from a different location, saying he would "not bow to ultimatums." But then, about two hours later...

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva is ready to hold negotiations with representatives of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship, and his secretary-general Korbsak Sabhavasu is coordinating with the UDD to make the necessary arrangements, PM's Office Minister Sathit Wongnongtoey said in a televised statement on Sunday morning.

The decision came as a large number of red-shirt protesters were massing outside the 11th Infantry Regiment camp where Mr Abhisit has been staying for the past two weeks since the rally began.

Mr Sathit said the government wants the situation in the country to return to normal as soon as possible.

(...) Mr Korbsak said the mass gathering of red shirts in front of the 11th Infantry Division camp was considered by the prime minister as a threat and intimidation. He said the withdrawal of the red shirts would improve the climate.

On Sunday morning, the UDD gave the prime minister until 10.15am to arrange the talks.  Soon after this, Mr Sathit appeared on television to tell the public of the latest developments.

"Govt, reds edge towards talks", Bangkok Post, March 28, 2010

Thanong Khanthong of The Nation (yes, that bloke!) had his very own theory even before the announcement.

Gen Prawit Wongsuwan, the defence minister, and Gen Anupong Paochinda warned Abhisit that he has to step forward to hold talks with the Red Shirts. Otherwise, the Military would abandon their support of the Abhisit government and the Coalition would be asked to form a new government with Pheu Thai Party as a core.

The prime minister must have felt that he is being forced into the corner. (...) The Democrats' bargaining power appears to be eroding. The soldiers, who come out of the barracks under the Internal Security Act, are getting tired and feeling very edgy. If the Red Shirts provoke the Military further, there could be accidental shooting by one of the soldiers. The Military are afraid that if their soldiers were to shoot the Red Shirts first, they and the government would immediately lose legitimacy.

"Abhisit Is Being Forced Into the Corner", by Thanong Khanthong, Nation Blog, March 28, 2010

At 4 PM in the afternoon both sides met at a neutral location, the King Prajadhipok’s Institute, an educational center on the outskirts of Bangkok. Given the very sudden nature of the events, some negotiations preluded the talks. The government side was represented by prime minister Abhisit, secretary-general Korbsak Sabhavasu and Democrat Party executive Chamni Sakdiset. For the red shirts Veera Musikhapong, Jatuporn Prompan and Weng Tojirakarn sat at the table.

After three hours of calm talks, both sides agreed to postpone until Monday at the same time. Overall this talk laid the fundamental arguments of both sides. It cannot be expected that a breakthrough deal would occur right at the first meeting, but the fact that both sides were able to sit down and make their points clear to everybody is encouraging. Bangkok Post has written a quick summary of the talking points.

The biggest surprise for me then was that the entire talk was televised on national TV, one of the pre-talk demands by the red shirts. Almost all free-tv channels broadcasted the meeting live and even though I can imagine that many people (read: not politically interested) simply changed channels or switched off, the availability of transparency during such an important turning point is no doubt a good thing. The cameras might have led the participants to leave any hostility and polemics at the door. Also, as an analyst on ThaiPBS said, it gave supporters of the red shirts and yellow shirts (who have been very quiet during the past weeks) to hear the central points of both sides, since they tend to watch and listen to media organizations of their own peer. (The Christian Science Monitor has written a piece about partiality in Thai media.)

Where are we now? From a factual standpoint we moved nowhere! The deadlock between both fractions has hardly loosen, no resolutions were made during the first talk and the central demands stayed the same. In fact Jatuporn, one of the red shirt leaders at the table, gave Abhisit two weeks time to consider dissolving the house and later in the evening on the rally stage declared that there'll be just a 'yes' or a 'no'. This reduces the talk on Monday to a do-or-die situation. A walkout or any similar acts by the red shirt tomorrow would swiftly destroy any momentum. But what we can gain from Sunday's landmark talks is that these people are ready to sit down and discuss why we got into the political mess in the first place. A quick solution is still far, far away but in these tense times, it's the little things that count.

Further Reading:

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Red March on Bangkok - Week Two Recap

It's been two weeks since the red shirts have been protesting in Bangkok and despite the noise there's still no end in sight, let alone a solution of the central problems they were protesting in the first place. The last seven days have been considerably quieter on the protest front, with numbers dwindling down to just a few thousands during the week - but it was expected by the protest leaders, as one of them said that the protesters, mostly from the distant provinces, were "rotating". Also the volume of the protests has decreased. After the still more than questionable blood stunt of last week the most notable act was a mass hair-cut of the protestors. As a side note, the government has extended the Internal Security Act for another seven days.

Another incident occurred on Wednesday, when parliament has been barricaded prior to a session. However, the fortification has backfired as MPs had to walk the rest of the way to parliament building and about 100 MPs of the opposition Puea Thai Party have boycotted and seized the opportunity to lament the barricade as a metaphor for the current political situation.

On Saturday the Red Shirts have originally planned a large motorcycle caravan roaming around the capital, but it has been cancelled the day before. The Nation has cited various reasons for the cancellation including:

A red-shirt source said the plan of marching had been opposed by several protest leaders, who agreed it would expose the red shirts to organised incidents by the government or a third party.

The source also said another march would cause severe traffic congestion at a time when there some important events were being held in Bangkok, such as the Inter-Parliamentary Union assembly and the National Book Fair, in addition to the entrance exam for high-school students.

The protest leaders yesterday also accused the government of assembling their supporters from communities in Bangkok to pressure the protesting red shirts.

"Red shirts call off plan for march today", The Nation, March 27, 2010

Instead, the Red Shirts were rallying to various spots in the city, mostly temples, in an effort to push out the military checkpoints stationed there. Nirmal Ghosh of the The Straits Times was at one of the locations and described the scene:

A truck with Red Shirt leaders Nattawut Saikuar and Dr Weng aboard, was parked directly in front of the gate. Nattawut was haranguing the soldiers but also offering them safe passage. A path had been cleared for the soldiers to leave, with the Reds’ black clad guards linking arms and keeping the mass of the crowd under control. But there was little tension, many were cheering and clapping. In the procession behind, trucks were belting out rousing Isan music and some were dancing. Big freshly minted white banners were printed with English and Thai slogans emphasising peace and non-violence.

A massive cheer went up when it was announced that the soldiers would leave. Peering through the gate I saw them loading their gear into trucks. Presently three trucks, one Humvee and one covered pickup lined up inside the gate, ready to roll. At around 1.30pm local time the gates were opened and the Humvee led the way out. The crowd was ecstatic. Some of the soldiers took pictures from the trucks.

"Thai version of people power?", by Nirmal Ghosh, The Straits Times, March 27, 2010

Similar scenes have been reported elsewhere. Encouraged by this small victory, the Red Shirts have gathered later in the evening in front of Government House also demand the soldiers to leave. Even though the situations looked a bit tense as it was unlikely at first that none of the two fractions would back down, the Red Shirts eventually decided not to pull a yellow shirt move and eventually retreated back to the main rally site at Pan Fah Bridge.

Unfortunately, there has been another bomb attack and it has claimed the most injured people since the beginning of the protest. Two grenades went off at two government-owned TV stations (Channel 5 and Channel 11) just within hours, eleven people (soldiers and civilians alike) have been injured. This is the latest in a series of grenade attacks throughout the past week. It is not (officially) known who threw these grenades, but it is very likely that a third party is involved here. For more on the grenade launcher attacks in recent times, Global Post's Patrick Winn has this background story.

Where are we now? By the looks of it there has been very little progress. Despite this, the most notable point is that the protests were peaceful! Neither the red shirts nor the government/military have provoked each other and have shown restraint and also respect. What might be a problem in my opinion is the  spirit of the red shirts. Yes, today's peaceful act with the military could be considered a victory. It is a very small one though, since not only the soldiers are now replaced by police forces, but also are they still far, far away from their central demands. PM Abhisit shows no sign of dissolving the house and calling for fresh elections. So, unless the red shirts are able to score a big victory - such as gaining more popular support from Bangkok residents - time is running out for them. But time could in the end be in the Red Shirt's favor as well, as both sides are certainly interested to move beyond the stalemate. The longer protest go on, the more likely a compromise is possible as Bangkok Pundit analyses:

(...) A journalist raised with Dr. Weng in a UDD presser on March 14 whether the red shirts would accept a promise by Abhisit in 3 months time and he said yes. BP doubts Abhisit (and *cough* the army *cough*) would accept the 3 month timeline, but what about a promise to dissolve within 6 months (decision is made at beginning of April) or by the end of the year? This would make it more difficult for both sides to reject. The reds want a dissolution now, but a promise to dissolve by the end of the year is more difficult for the reds to reject. The coalition partners don't want a dissolution now, but once the military reshuffle is resorted and another budget with the coalition partners getting their hands on more goodies to "hand" out. This would mean the Dems would have had about 2 years in office. They have a chance to see their policies implemented.

"What next for the red shirts and the government?", Bangkok Pundit, March 27, 2010

A new election would not solve the problems of the political crisis, as many of the issues are rooted much deeper, but it would be a step in the right direction if politics are not taken to the streets again - at least until the next time.

Further reading:

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Red Shirt Supporters in Germany

A German blog called "Schönes? Thailand" (Beautiful? Thailand), which openly supports the red shirts, recently ran a story about a Red Shirts supporters' meeting in Dortmund last weekend with an attendance of over 50 people. Special guests were Giles Ji Ungpakorn and (via telephone) Jakrapop Penkair, both in exile after being accused of lèse majesté, who held speeches about the current political situation. Due to legal reasons I cannot translate and post many parts of the speeches (instead read it yourself), but I found this part noteworthy.

Die Rothemden haben am Ende der Versammlung einen Beschluss gefasst. Sie erklärten, sich bis zum Sieg für die Demokratie einsetzen zu wollen. Falls es eine Zerschlagung der Demokratiebewegung gäbe, würden sie sich sofort versammeln und vor der thailändischen Botschaft und den Konsulaten versammeln um dagegen zu protestieren.

(The Red Shirts have come to a conclusion at the end of the meeting. They declare to stand up for democracy until victory. In case of a crackdown of the democracy movement, they would immediately assemble and protest against it in front of the Thai embassy and consulates.)

"Solidaritätsveranstaltung in Deutschland", Schönes? Thailand, March 16, 2010 - Translation by me

Sources tell me that it was initially a birthday party of a member. It was then transformed to a political event. Pictures of the event (and a meeting of a few in front of the Royal Thai Embassy in Berlin) can be seen here.

It is difficult to conduct the political leaning of Thais in Germany, let alone the demographics of all Thai people in this country. By my own estimations and impressions (and by no way it is meant degrading), most Thais in Germany are female, above 35 years old and married to a German male. Also, the origin of most is the Isaan region, the North-Eastern.

In my opinion, like in Thailand itself, there has been a growing interest for Thai politics by the Thai expats here in Germany in recent times. The numbers are nowhere near their American counterparts (more about this in another blog post), but certainly we can expect more political activism by Thai expats.

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Red March on Bangkok, Day 8

The red shirts today will march through Bangkok in order to round up support. Richard Barrow has created a map of the route, which will be updated during the day. [googlemaps http://maps.google.co.th/maps/ms?hl=en-GB&ie=UTF8&msa=0&msid=116480606892254086046.0004817fafbb87b0951c0&ll=13.760728,100.561638&spn=0.120049,0.20565&z=12&output=embed&w=600&h=360]

After a day of relative silence from the rally site (meaning no groundbreaking developments) and now a completed week, the protests might come to end. With the march through Bangkok today the Red Shirts hope revitalize their cause and also to try to woo in potential undecided Bangkok supporters. Bangkok Pundit describes the potential target group.

The red shirts will also more likely be seeking the support of the urban poor and the lower middle-classes, particularly those who earn less than 15,000 Baht a month although there is a problem in the sense that the larger the red shirt turn-out on the road, the greater disruption there will be.

"Are the red shirts all about Thaksin?", Bangkok Pundit, March 19, 2010

But in earlier post he also pointed out the difficulties of this move.

The red shirts face the same problem that PAD faced. You stay in Bangkok for too long people will get annoyed as their daily life is upset. If the numbers for a long-term protests are very high then the downside of this is that when you go walking around the city on the various gimmicks you will just cause greater traffic problems. Of course though if your numbers are not high enough, well you become less relevant. Media attention cannot be sustained for long. In fact, now it is on the wane. They will still attract attention for this weekend, but beyond that it becomes more difficult.

"Red shirts losing?", Bangkok Pundit, March 19, 2010

The Bangkok Post cites a writer from the Thai-language daily Matichon about the attitude of many Bangkokians towards the red shirts and the protests so far.

However, this week's red shirt rally is different from previous mob rallies in Bangkok. Most people in Bangkok neither oppose nor support the rally, but are neutral.

The reason might be that even though Bangkokians are still wary about Thaksin, they do not see the Abhisit administration in a shining light. Even though Mr Abhisit still retains a good image, he is seen as ineffectual in curbing corruption within ministries run by coalition parties. They see Mr Abhisit as cautious in tackling corruption, fearing the loss of support of the coalition parties who switched sides from Thaksin's  party.

They also see the Abhisit administration as being insincere in solving the red shirt problems at their core, and of trying to paint the red shirts as devils, hell-bent on wreaking havoc in Bangkok.

"Bangkokians prove neutral on red shirt rally", Bangkok Post, March 20, 2010

This could be the final act of the protest, unless they pull a PAD (seize a government building or an airport indefinitely)! The red shirts will try their best to end on a high note, showing their peaceful side and, in the best case, gain sympathies by Bangkokians. Let's if they are still welcomed, after the residents of the capital are being told to stay in yet another weekend...

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Red March on Bangkok, Day 6 - "Peaceful Class War"

After another questionable display of blood spilling, this time at PM Abhisit's private house, and the decreasing number of attendance, there was still the looming question of what the next move of the anti-government protests would be. But more on that later. One of the major developments was the open split between the red shirt leaders and ex-communist insurgent Surachai Sae Dan and Major General Kattiya Sawasdiphon - better known as Seh Daeng. Seh Daeng is a colorful and well-known character in Thailand and he wasn't quiet today as well. In his usual vivid style he said:

เสธ.แดงกล่าวเพิ่มเติมว่า ที่ผ่านมา พวก 3 เกลอเคยพาเสื้อแดงทำอะไรประสบความสำเร็จบ้าง นำทัพแดงรบแพ้มา 2 ครั้ง ขณะที่ตนเป็นทหารที่รบชนะมาตลอด คอยช่วยเหลือเสื้อแดงอยู่ตลอด ดังนั้นแกนนำนปช.ควรจะถอยไป เหลือไว้เพียงนายณัฐวุฒิ ไสยเกื้อ และเปิดโอกาสให้นายอริสมันต์ พงษ์เรืองรอง นายสุพร อัตถาวงศ์ และนายขวัญชัย ไพรพณา ขึ้นมาเป็นผู้นำทัพคนใหม่

(Sae Daeng further criticizes: "In the past, what have the three leader of the Red Shirts achieved? They have led the Red Army and lost twice. On the contrary, I - the soldier - have always won and was always loyal to the Red Shirts. Thus the UDD leaders should step aside with the exception of Natthawut Saigua and make space for Arisaman Pongruengrong, Suporn Atthawong and Kwanchai Praiphana to be the new leaders.")

"เสธ.ฉุน3เกลอ สู้ไม่ได้ป้ายขี้ แนะมาร์คนั่งรถแทนฮ.", Thai Rath, March 17, 2010 - Translation by me

The last three names that Sae Daeng mentioned are known hardliners within the movement.

About the blood stunt he said:

"ไม่รู้แกนนำเอาตำราพิชัยสงครามเล่มไหนมาใช้ เพราะปกติเขาจะกรีดเลือดเฉพาะผู้นำทัพ แต่นี่กลับมาเจาะเลือดลูกทัพ ทำให้เสียมวลชนที่เป็นสตรีและเด็กจำนวนมาก กลุ่ม 3 เกลอรู้ดีว่าสู้ไม่ได้เลยโกรธ จึงโยนความผิดให้และด่าว่าตนทำให้แพ้ (...)"

(I don't know what battle manual they have read, because normally you the take blood of the leaders. But here they take the blood of the supporters, which drives the women and children away in large numbers. The three leaders know that they cannot fight, so they're angry and are blaming me for their defeat! (...)")

"เสธ.ฉุน3เกลอ สู้ไม่ได้ป้ายขี้ แนะมาร์คนั่งรถแทนฮ.", Thai Rath, March 17, 2010 - Translation by me

Meanwhile one of the current red shirt leaders had this to say:

Veera Musigapong announced on the stage at Phan Fah Bridge that the two had looked down on the red-shirt people by crticising the peaceful measures of the red-shirt leaders so the movement or Red in Land decided to cut tie with the two.

"Red in Land officially severs tie with Khattiya, Surachai" The Nation, March 17, 2010

There was certainly frustration within the movement that nothing substantial has come out of the last days and it was a matter of time when the first rifts will openly appear.

Suthichai Yoon of The Nation doesn't really quite believe the split:

But cynics say that this "break-up" may be a facade -- so that some violent acts could be carried out without the mainstream Red Shirts may being directly blamed for them.

We shall see whether this "split" is for real.

"Its official: The Reds are split...but is it for real?", by Suthichai Yoon, The Nation Blog, March 17, 2010

One cynic here thinks that he meant himself with "but cynics say...", just sayin'...

In the evening we got to know about the next (and may be final) act: they have declared a "peaceful class war" and will be rallying around Bangkok on Saturday. While this can be one last defiant move of the protests, we have to see if they can maintain a fighting mood until the weekend and I'm still not convinced that they will be able to woo in undecided Bangkokians to join the rally.

Further reading:

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Red March on Bangkok, Day 5 - What A Bloody Mess!

"Donated #redshirt blood arrives at Thailand Government House", photo courtesy of John Le Fevre

The fifth day of the anti-government protests by the red shirts took a somewhat bizarre turn. As announced yesterday, they called for their supporters to donate blood and then spill it at the Government House and later at the headquarters of the Democrat Party. Needless to say, it was a bloody mess (sorry for this and all coming blood-related puns). But it is not only what the red shirts have left at the sites, but also what is left of this campaign of this movement itself.

I mentioned yesterday my skepticism about this whole stunt. First there were the logistics: contrary to what I assumed the red shirts started with the blood donations this morning. In the end they managed to get 300 liters of blood from 70,000 people, of course far off from what they wanted to achieve. The process was completed at 4 pm and soon after a part of the Red Shirts moved to Government House and after that the crowd moved to the headquarters of the Democrat Party.

At 4.50pm, Jatuporn Prompan, a UDD leader, a man dressed in white as a Brahman, and another man holding a Buddha statue in his arms, walked to Gate No 2 where a religious rite was performed.  The brahman cited spells and incantations and poured an amount of blood in front of the gate.

After that the brahman took some of the blood from the ground to write letters on the concrete posts of the gate.

"Reds complete blood ritual", Bangkok Post, March 15, 2010

Half an hour later, about 100 men dodged around security to the Democrat Party's building and sloshed out another 18 litres of blood.

Reporters, police and soldiers looked on in amazement as the blood was being poured.

"Reds come good on pledge to splatter Govt House", The Nation, March 15, 2010

Looking at the (very gross, you've been warned) pictures, the Red Shirts have left a far sizable mess at the Democrat HQ than at Government House. Also, at both sites a white-robed Brahman priest took part in the stunt, doing a ritual with citations probably cursing the current government and other power holders for all eternity. Can anybody explain to me the spiritual background of this?

What I also cannot explain is what the red shirt will gain with this in the longer term, if at all? I'm still convinced that this was an impulsive, hastily planned attention grabber that has at least raised a few eye brows. Sure, the press was there to cover it and the pictures of the bloodbath will go around. Also, the red shirts wanted to leave a mark showing that they were here to stay or simply trying not to lose their face at the end. The problem is though, this protest hasn't really hurt anyone (not implying violence), unlike the seizure of the two Bangkok airports by the PAD (the Yellow Shirts), which has left a big wound on many levels. But the people will forget about today as quickly as the blood has been cleaned off.

I don't think this will gain more supporters, let alone for those undecided people of Bangkok which they tried to woo in for their case on Friday. It appears to me that the protest is slowly running out of steam. While it was well-planned and executed, with a decent amount of supporters (although nowhere near a million or even 500,000), no big troubles and inconveniences for the residents of Bangkok whatsoever, the leaders didn't really think about how to end this. It must have been clear for them that there was absolutely no chance they would topple the government. Also, the government itself has cleverly restrained themselves in the background letting the red shirts pass and even wooing them in a conciliatory tone. This attitude has caught the red shirt leaders off guard (while justifiably the potential for violence existed) that led them to up the ante, which then resulted in questionable stunts as seen today.

The only interesting issue left now is how the red shirts will conclude this protest, either slowly fading away or going out once more with a bang.

Further reading:

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Red March on Bangkok, Day 4 - Blood Loss (UPDATED)

"Tired #redshirt sleeps on the pavement in #Bangkok" by @alohalavina

On the forth day of the anti-government protests Prime Minister Abhisit has unsurprisingly dismissed the demand to dissolve parliament and therefore the red shirts (a part of them), after the deadline expired at noon on Monday, marched to the 11th Infranty Regiment - the Prime Minister's safe house and the government's situation room. Al Jazeera English reported from the scene.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gI23Kar9zy4&w=600&h=360] Video: "Thailand caught in protest standoff", Al Jazeera English, March 15, 2010. Via YouTube

UPDATE: Tulsathit Taptim and Panya Thiewsangwan of The Nation have described the scene and the deescalation tactics used by the military:

They spoke partly in northeastern dialect to the red visitors, teased them nicely and reminded them that they were confronting their own children who were only performing their duty yet would allow them to exercise their democratic right in an appropriate scope.

The military orators were aided by a powerful sound system that at one point jarred the nerves of red leader Veera Musigapong so much that he sarcastically vowed to drop the House dissolution demand if they would just drop the volume.

The friendly greetings - beginning with "Let us hear your voice. Let us hear your clappers." - caught the pro-testers off-guard and further limited their options. The red shirts had won praise for being peaceful and orderly and that reputation restricted what they could do in front of the sprawling Army compound.

"Army speakers win the day" by Tulsathit Taptim and Panya Thiewsangwan, The Nation, March 15, 2010

After the usual rant by the red shirt leaders against the government and other powerful key figures, the question everybody asked was: "And now what?" This:

United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) core leader Natthawut Saikua has announced that he will take one thousand liters of blood donated by protesters and spill it around Government House on Tuesday, in retaliation for the government's decision not to dissolve the House.

The drawing of blood will begin about 8am on Tuesday, Mr Natthawut said. A total of one million cubic centimetres (cc) would be taken from 100,000 volunteers, including protest leaders.

This would be a symbolic action. Cabinet ministers would have to walk over the protesters' blood when they enter Government House to work, he said.

If the government still refused to dissolve the House, then another million cc's of blood would be scattered outside the Democrat Party headquarters. The third target would Mr Abhisit's house, he said.

"UDD next move: Scatter blood", Bangkok Post, March 15, 2010

Really?! That's their plan? So far, the fact the protests have been peaceful and no bigger problems (or even violence) have occurred can be counted as a success and confident boost for the red shirts. But now they risk to lose all the momentum for this more than questionable stunt. First, there is the logistic problem: how on earth are they going to get enough blood of 100,000 people in just one night?

Secondly is a medical one: how are they going to get enough clean needles? The Thai Red Cross has refused to help, pointing out medical consequences of improper use. Channel 3 has reported that an unnamed hospital will support the Red Shirts with the stunt, but so far no other news sources did.

And finally the question is: what do they want to achieve with this? Unless they want to deliberately create a big hygienic mess I don't see anything being solved here! It all appears to me a rather impulsive stunt as they failed with the protest at the 11th Infranty Regiment. Even if the red shirts do pull it off, the this campaign of the movement is slowly bleeding out.

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At the same time when the red shirts protested at the military base, another base was attacked with six shots from a M79 grenade launcher. The 1st Infantry Regiment compound houses Army chief General Anupong Paochinda. Even though suspects were questioned by the police (and later released), so far there was no connection to the Red Shirts. This incident is yet another one in a string of attacks involving a M79 grenade launcher and also not the first one against General Anupong.

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In other news, the question of Thaksin's current whereabouts might be answered:

Former Thai premier Thaksin Shinawatra, on the run from corruption charges, was spotted in the Montenegrin town of Budva this weekend, a local TV station reported Monday.

Thaksin was seen in coastal Budva's medieval old town on Sunday, enjoying coffee and cakes in one of the area's posh hotel with his entourage, TV Vijesti reported, quoting witnesses.

"Deposed Thai premier spotted in Montenegro: Report", Associated Press via Vancouver Sun, March 15, 2010

As I correctly predicted on Saturday, Thaksin could only be in a non-EU country and given his connections, Montenegro sounds plausible.

Note: Special thanks to @alohalavina for giving me permission to post that picture. Go to her Twitter profile for more photos of today's event!

Further reading:

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Red March on Bangkok, Day 3 - "Dissolve Parliament or else...!"

The anti-government protests by the Red Shirts has gone into its critical phase as the number of attendance has peaked, but no exact number can be given, because simply everyone is claiming something else.

A total of 46,377 people took part in the mass rally organised by the anti-government United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) in Bangkok, the Ministry of Interior reported on Sunday evening.

Foreign media estimated the crowds early on Sunday at over 100,000. The Associated Press quoted Pol Gen Wichai Sangprapai, commander in the main protest area, as saying he expected the number to reach 150,000 or more by Sunday evening.

"Dispute begins over rally numbers", Bangkok Post, March 14, 2010

As many as 600,000 members of the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship reached Bangkok late today, said Weng Tojirakarn, a protest leader. (...)

Abhisit said 100,000 protesters joined the rally last night, a number he said didn’t exceed a similar protest against him last April that turned violent. About 50,000 people turned up today, Government spokesman Panitan Wattanayagorn said.

“We are very satisfied with the turnout,” said Weng, one of the protest leaders. “It’s more people than last April. To say we have only 50,000 is ridiculous.”

"Thai Protesters Mass to Oust Premier, Pledge Marches", by Daniel Ten Kate and Anuchit Nguyen, Bloomberg.com, March 14, 2010

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As blogged yesterday, there has been the rumor that the government was considering to enforce a state of emergency. This has been quickly denied in the early hours of today and Prime Minister Abhisit said that such case would happen depending on "necessity and urgency only". It seems that the authorities are playing cool, for now. The fact that they have not declared Monday a public holiday, in order to ease off to prevent a traffic breakdown with the daily commuters, also underlines this.

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This weekend only marks the beginning of a longer protest by the Red Shirts as they say that the next few days are the most crucial. The most significant development today was their ultimatum to Abhisit to dissolve Parliament with 24 hours or else they'd storm he 11th Infantry Regiment - the government's "war room" and safe house. The deadline is 12 PM on Monday and with Abhisit very unlikely to act according to their wishes, it will be very interesting how to will unfold tomorrow to say the least.

Here's what the two English dailies in Thailand The Nation and Bangkok Post are saying plus an analysis by the British Times Online (emphasis all mine).

Today's noon deadline for the movement's House dissolution ultimatum will pass, forcing the red shirts to decide what to do next. The movement has announced a plan to besiege the 11th Infantry Regiment headquarters, but the real question is what they are prepared to do afterwards. (...)

As for the government, the military has been firmly on its side. One little worry has to do with what game the coalition partners are playing. News reports suggested the allies are not ready to jump ship, at least for now. If the solidarity is confirmed, this will leave the red shirts with two increasingly implausible scenarios of victory: An upheaval of 500,000 people or a bloody turmoil that somehow enables a pro-Thaksin coup to succeed.

"Govt putting the ball in Reds' court", by Tulsathit Taptim, The Nation, March 15, 2010

The UDD's lack of a strong or decisive response to Mr Abhisits anticipated rejection to their call for House dissolution indicates that their much publicised final showdown to topple the government still lacks the knockout punch. The one-million protesters expected by the UDD has not been achieved and remains a pipe dream.  Without that magic figure to tip the balance in their favour,  it is doubtful the UDD will be able to overthrow the government. (...)

Both the UDD and the government have been trying their best to avoid the label of villains for being the first to start violence. The longer the protest drags on, the more likely that one side, or both, will lose patience.

Despite the bluffs and counter-bluffs of both sides, Sunday's peaceful mass protest is a healthy sign that should prevail throughout the duration of the protest.

"Still cool... for now", by Veera Prateepchaikul, Bangkok Post, March 15, 2010

If the demonstrators can paralyse Bangkok, or provoke the Government into a crude crackdown, Mr Abhisit will be the loser; if he can contain the protest, and reduce it to no more than a noisy nuisance, then he will come out the stronger.

The likeliest outcome is a messy, inconclusive stalemate in which neither side lands a knockout blow, and the loser is Thailand itself – its credibility among foreign investors, its tourist industry, and its once powerful sense of national unity.

"Analysis: who will blink first in Bangkok?", by Richard Lloyd Parry, Times Online, March 14, 2010

Further reading:

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Red March on Bangkok, Day 2 - State of Emergency Imminent?

After a slow start yesterday, today's descend of the anti-government red shirts into Bangkok was significantly larger. The Nation estimates at least 100,000 protestors have gathered along Rajdamnoen Avenue and have described the scene as this:

Makeshift toilets were being installed by the red shirts to supplement those provided by the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration, and many food stalls quickly sprang up.

As night fell some traded stories, while others went to listen to the main stage's speakers on Phan Fah Bridge, which became a sea of red shirts.

"Rajdamnoen a sea of red as protesters set up camp" by Pravit Rojanaphruk, The Nation, March 13, 2010

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During Friday afternoon The Nation (among others) have posted a video which they have captioned in a mildly cocky manner with "Look what's going on in Nakhon Phanom as local red shirts are preparing to leave for Bangkok to join the mass rallies on Sunday.".

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=afmrFcGHIIU&w=600&h=360]Video: YouTube via Prachatai.com

It shows red shirts in Nakhon Phanom receiving money. Even though it is probably for fuel expenses, as one local red shirt leader stated, some would immediately jump to the conclusion that the protestors were actually hired. Prachatai has more.

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Meanwhile, after I blogged yesterday that Thaksin tweeted he was on his way to Europe, the former PM again stated this during a short phone-in to his supporter at the main rally site. Here's a video of the phone-in, the reference on his whereabouts begins at the 10 minute mark.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5uP6U60BPH8&feature=player_embedded&w=600&h=360]Video by ThaiTVNews.blogspot.com, watch the second part here.

"My dear people, there have been news spread that I'm supposed to be in Cambodia. I'm in Europe! I'm here to meet my children, who were attending a trade show in Germany so we're going to meet in Europe. It is not true that I would be in Cambodia, because I don't want tarnish the relationships between the two countries. What is for granted is that wherever I am, I can call in. Wherever I am I can video-link to you. (...) So stop with that lie!"

(Translation by me)

Thaksin further denies that he was expelled from UAE by saying that he would be asked by some countries not to enter because simply "they were fed up with the whining of the Thai government!". It is still not clear which European country Thaksin currently is, while it is impossible that countries like Germany and the UK would welcome him since they revoked his visa. The Vice Minister for Foreign Affairs Panich Vikitsreth claimed yesterday that he was on his way to Switzerland. But then again, the Foreign Ministry was also yesterday. May be Montenegro?

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In the late hours of the evening The Nation (again, I know) has reported that a source say that the government is considering to enforce a state of emergency.

The government will likely enforce a state-of-emergency decree today to cope with the escalating security problem in Bangkok after tens of thousands of provincial protesters arrived in the city yesterday.

A state of emergency, which would be on top on the current implementation of the Internal Security Act (ISA), would empower the military to fully take charge of the situation. (...)

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva is expected to hold an emergency Cabinet meeting before the emergency decree is used, according to a senior government source.

Red shirts rallying for "democracy" yesterday threatened a mass march on Abhisit's hold-out if he does not dissolve the House of Representatives by noon today. (...)

Jatuporn Promphan, a key leader of the anti-government movement, said that at this stage they had no plan to march to Government House, Parliament House or the house of Privy Council President Prem Tinsulanonda.

"Govt likely to enforce state of emergency on top of ISA", The Nation, March 14, 2010

Honestly, it doesn't make much sense to me at this point. Firstly, there is only one source and I haven't read this anywhere else. Secondly, I see no real justification to call in the military other than pre-emptively strike against the red shirts. We'll have to see. By the time of writing this blog post (6 AM Bangkok time), nothing has been stated by the government yet.

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For Sunday's coverage of the red shirts protests, I recommend you to follow these people on Twitter: @thaicam, @_willowtree_, @RobinThailand, @tri26 and @newley will be reporting all from the scene at Radjadamnoen Avenue, Patrick Winn (@BKKApologist) and @RichardBarrow have announced that they will be embedded with red shirts coming by boat from Ayutthaya and by car from Samut Prakan, respectively. As usual due to time difference, I'll chime in during the afternoon Bangkok time (@Saksith).

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Red March in Bangkok, Day 1 / Thaksin: "I'll travel to Europe tomorrow!"

Today marked the start of the protest weekend by the anti-government red shirts in Bangkok and according to reports, blogs and twitteres on the scene it has been, compared to the hype and the fear-mongering prior to this day, rather quiet on the streets. Even though many places of the capital were less busy than usual (even the big, always crowded MBK mall was nearly empty), no bigger inconvenience or unrest was reported and the turnout was just shy of a few hundreds at each rally point in the city, according to what The Nation's Tulsathit Taptim tweeted. Apart from an incident in Pathum Thani, it has been peaceful. So far this is not too surprising as the red shirts just started gathering in their respective provinces and then head to Bangkok. This shifts the focus on the next two days, when they are expected to arrive. ------------------------

Late afternoon reports came in that former PM Thaksin Shinawatra has left, or even expelled, from his exile in Dubai, UAE and was on his way to Siem Reap, Cambodia - which the Foreign Ministry has confirmed! But then during the night Thaksin wrote this on his Twitter feed...

มีข่าวว่าผมถูกขับออกจากUAEไปอยู่ที่เสียมเรียบ ขอโทษทีไม่จริงนะครับผมยังอยู่ท่ีดูไบพรุ่งนี้จะเดินทางไปยุโรปพบกับลูกสาวทั้งสองคนซึ่งดูงานเสร็จ

There have been news that I was asked to leave UAE and flew to Siam Reap. I'm sorry to say that it's not true. I'm still in Dubai and tomorrow I will head to Europe to visit my two daughters, who just went to a trade show.

Thaksin Shinawatra on Twitter (@ThaksinLive), March 13, 2010 - Translation and emphasis by me

Thaksin's daughters are reported to be in Germany right now, where they'll visit "an exhibition and trade fair hotels in Germany". Currently, the International Travel Trade Show in Berlin is underway.

But, is it very likely that Thaksin will travel to Europe and being permitted access to Germany, again?

Further reading:

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Red March in Bangkok

This Friday marks yet another chapter in the seemingly unending political crisis in Thailand as the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship have called their supporters to flock to Bangkok for a mass rally and yet again, they are calling for Prime Minister Abhisit to dissolve parliament. What is different this time is the anticipation on all sides. On one hand, the red shirts are boasting that a million people will come to the capital. It can be said for certain that this high number is more an aim rather than the real turnout will be. If they are lucky, they can manage to mobilize more than 100,000 protesters. In a press conference by the UDD earlier this months they proclaim that the movement has grown and are also confident that even the middle class of Bangkok, for the most part yellow, will join them. For the rest of UDD's press conference and analysis, AbsolutelyBangkok has written a report on it.

On the other the government is trying to cope with the large wave of red shirts. Besides invoking the Internal Security Act, military checkpoints have been set up at the outskirts and many other measures (e.g. pick-ups with non-BKK licenses cannot enter Bangkok) were made to either control or in some cases to restrict the protesters entering the capital. But the overall crisis management has been schizophrenic. The blog Thailand Crisis has pretty much nailed it as it's headline reads: "After contributing to panic, Abhisit calls for people not to panic"

I will not delve into the issues surrounding the protests (see below for further reading), but what I want to address is the anticipation to the upcoming events. Even though both sides have pledged not to use any violence against anybody, there is a tense mood among the residents of Bangkok. Clearly, the both fractions have failed to keep the mood calm. What is also clear is that nobody want to have a repeat of the Songkran riots of last year. While we all hope that they're will be no violence unfortunately - as we have seen several times already in Thai politics - nothing is for certain and nobody can be regarded as fully sincere. But all fractions also know that if they cause unrest and violence, the other side would gain space in their respective argument or as The Nation's editor Tulsathit Taptim has noted:

Apparently, it'll be a matter of who blinks first. If Govt fires first, it'll lose. If reds throw Molotov cocktails first, they'll lose.

Tulsathit Taptim on Twitter

Further reading:

Also, follow me on Twitter for updates on the events.

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What Else? No. 2 - Prude Lakorn Edition

“What Else?” is a regular look at all the other things that happened in Thailand, Germany, on the web and in between. A quiet week here on the blog, but I have a few articles prepared. Meanwhile, let's have a quick look what's left this week.

Patrick Winn examines why the M79 grenade launcher is the preferred weapon against political targets. The troubling part is not the easy usage or its availability, but the increasing frequency it is used to terrorize certain political fractions and the broad unrest it creates.

Tumbler, a fellow blogger and twitterer, has dug up a very compelling example that the rift between the so-called 'educated' and 'un-educated' existed long before the deep political crisis of today. A 2008 study on "How East Asians View Democracy" has asked among other things this question: “Do you agree or disagree: People with little or no education should have as much say in politics as highly educated people?”. The results from Thailand are more than sobering...

Does anybody of you watch Thai TV soaps, also known as lakorns? Well, it's always the same pattern isn't it? Andrew Biggs, a Bangkok-based journalist and TV/radio host, has written a piece for the Bangkok Post on a certain hypocrisy often seen on Thai TV. Explicit violence? Hell yeah! On-screen love? God forbid, NO!

And finally it's time for the "WTF?! of the week" where I ‘honor’ stories, persons or anything that makes us initially shout those three letters of confusion. Photographer John Le Fevre has tweeted that English language section of Thailand's government PR department website was blacklisted by Google for being a malicious site, which I also retweeted. But currently Google says the site is not suspicious and it appears to be back to normal again. However, Andy from the blog "Changwat, Amphoe, Tambon" has tipped me off (thanks for that!) that the website of the Thai Senate is still spreading malware through its site:

Of the 258 pages we tested on the site over the past 90 days, 166 page(s) resulted in malicious software being downloaded and installed without user consent. The last time Google visited this site was on 2010-03-05, and the last time suspicious content was found on this site was on 2010-03-05.

Malicious software includes 24 exploit(s), 14 scripting exploit(s), 11 trojan(s). Successful infection resulted in an average of 1 new process(es) on the target machine.

"Google Safe Browsing diagnostic page for www.senate.go.th", Google, March 5, 2010

Ouch! The best part is, according to Andy, that this hasn't been fixed since December! While he calls it a "Webmaster fail", I call this the "WTF?! of the week"! One cynic fellow has told me this is yet again another evil plot by the elites to keep the common person away from informing oneself about our political institutions  - well, click it at your own risk...

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