Thai Navy plans to buy submarines from Germany
Originally published at Siam Voices on January 23, 2011 The Bangkok Post reports
The Royal Thai Navy wants to buy two second-hand submarines at a cost of 6-7 billion baht [$195m - $228m]. [...]
The specifications of the submarines have not been determined but the navy is expected to buy them from European suppliers, probably Germany.
The navy has stressed the need to acquire submarines because Thai sailors have little knowledge of submarine technology, which is constantly upgraded.
"Several neighbouring countries have submarines at their disposal. But Thai sailors have never come into contact with submarines. We are still backwards in terms of submarine technology," said the source. [...]
The plan has the backing of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, who wants the armed forces to improve their capabilities in what is seen as a return of favours to the military for standing by the government in dealing with the red shirts during last year's protests.
"Navy wants to buy 2 subs", Bangkok Post, January 22, 2011
A local German paper, Kieler Nachrichten, reported recently that the Thai Navy wants to buy six used type 206 submarines from Germany. It continues:
Thailand's ministry of defense has promised their navy 500 million Euros [$681m] for the construction of a submarine flotilla in last March.
Bilateral talks between Berlin and Bangkok have already taken place. When the purchase contract with Thailand is ready to be signed is not known by this time. But the boats have already been inspected. The planned relocation of the submarines from Eckernförde to Wilhelmshaven for decommissioning has been stopped shortly thereafter.
"Chancen stehen gut: Großauftrag für HDW in Sicht", Kieler Nachrichten, January 18, 2011, translation by me
The story goes on that the Kiel dockyard company HDW is tipped to be contracted with the maintenance and preparation for the handover of the submarines, which is scheduled after March.
The Royal Thai Navy has long desired to buy new submarines for some time now (read here and here), including the suspected involvement of arms dealer Viktor Bout. The necessity though is debatable to say the least. Navy officials are repeatedly citing various reasons ranging from economic reasons (in the sense of securing trade routes by sea) to a "strong bargaining power in international negotiations" (source), which is clearly an offensive, if not aggressive, stance against its neighboring countries. While Thailand is so far the only one in the region that maintains an aircraft carrier, others like Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore have or are in the process of acquiring submarines, leading to the suggestion of an arms race.
That said, according to Richard A. Bitzinger, Senior Fellow with the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) in Singapore, even though it is not an arms race per se, it has its consequences:
If Southeast Asia is in the midst of an arms dynamic, as it would appear, it may still have a deleterious effect on regional security. Relatively considerable sums of monies are being spent on weaponry, perhaps with little regard to their actual usefulness in military situations (at least, the kind of likely military situations that would occur in the region), and the deployment of these weapons are no less potentially distressing to the regional security dynamic, especially if some event were to push the region into conflict. On the other hand, the acceptance that the region is in an arms dynamic and not an arms race means that the situation is not immutable and that the problem of arms proliferation in the region is resolvable, [...] easily comprehended, bounded and constrained. The cycle can be broken or mitigated, and it is certainly within the power of the local states to do so, should they choose to do so.
Bitzinger, Richard A.: "A New Arms Race? Explaining Recent Southeast Asian Military Acquisitions", in: Contemporary Southeast Asia: A Journal of International and Strategic Affairs, Volume 32, Number 1, April 2010
From a domestic angle, this is another one in a long list of the proposed equipment procurement of the army (see previous story on Ukrainian APCs and German engines to Thailand). In the greater scheme of things, this is also the result of the Thai government granting the army a bigger budget in order to secure their support. A Bangkok Post story from March 2010 (in anticipation of the red shirts protests) suggested that the armed forces were to file in their wish lists. Since the protests have been dispersed by the army, the government is now owing the rewards to them - no matter how useless, impractical or dubious these soon-to-be mothballed big toys will be.
Red Shirt to 'sue' Thai privy councilors over cable
Originally published at Siam Voices on January 12, 2011 Last week, VoiceTV* reported this:
Gen Prem Tinsulanonda, Anand Panyarachun and ACM Siddhi Savetsila were Thursday sued on lese majeste charges.
Gen Prem, the chief privy counsel and former prime minister, Mr Anand, a former prime minister, and ACM Siddhi, a former foreign minister, were altogether charged by Red Shirt movement for alleged lese majeste acts which might have possibly offended the Royal Household.
Red Shirt spokesman Worawut Wichaidit, who brought up the charges to Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva at Government House, quoted cable messages circulated by WikiLeaks as saying the highly-placed trio had discussed varied topics with former United States ambassador to Thailand Eric G John a few years earlier.
"Prem, Anand, Siddhi Sued On Lese Majeste Charges", VoiceTV, January 6, 2011
The WikiLeaks cable, in which General Prem Tinsulanonda, the head of the privy council, Air Chief Marshall Siddhi Savetsila, also a member of the privy council, and former prime minister Anand Panyarachun were mentioned and their problematic implications were subject of a previous Siam Voices post by my fellow writer Andrew Spooner.
It has to be said first and foremost that the VoiceTV story is misleading and just simply wrong on so many levels (the main reason why I initially didn't write about this when it first came up). It gives the assumption that the three men have already been charged for lese majeste (let alone by the red shirts themselves), which is obviously not the case.
Normally, a lese majeste complaint would be filed at the police, which then would be checked by them and then decided whether to charge the suspect or not - as seen in the prominent cases of actor Pongpat Wachirabanjong (who was not charged) and Prachatai webmaster Chiranuch Premchiaporn (who was charged, twice!).
So what really happened? According to a short news item on Matichon, the red shirt representative has submitted a letter to Prime Minister Abhisit (hence why he showed up at Government House) notifying that the three men have committed lese majeste ("ยื่นหนังสือถึงนายอภิสิทธิ์ เวชชาชีวะ นายกรัฐมนตรี ให้ดำเนินคดีกับบุคคลที่เข้าข่ายกระทำความผิดต่อองค์รัชทายาท ประกอบด้วย พล.อ.เปรม ติณสูลานนท์ ประธานองคมนตรี พล.อ.อ.สิทธิ เศวตศิลา องคมนตรี และนายอานันท์ ปันยารชุน อดีตนายกรัฐมนตรี") because of the comments they made in the WikiLeaks cable.
That, of course, is a completely different story to the original VoiceTV story (btw, their video report in Thai is closer to the more accurate description) and also less dramatic. The chances are very low that this complaint will get anywhere, since any public discussion on these certain cables are virtually non-existent and the media coverage has been largely mum. But most possibly this was their intent to get more public attention and push the existence of these cables (and their contents) into the spotlight.
On Tuesday, The Nation's Pravit wrote an open letter voicing his displeasure on this matter. Key excerpts:
You must all be well aware that the lese majeste law is draconian and undemocratic. I know Prem is one of your arch-enemies, but first ask yourselves how crushing your enemies by using an undemocratic law would bring about a more democratic society? How then will you differ from the yellow-shirts who prefer a "good coup d' etat" as a panacea for all perceived political ills? (...)
There is no place for lese majeste law in a truly democratic society because citizens in a democracy should be able to express their "critical" views without fear of persecution. Your decision to use the lese majeste law to crush your enemies only makes Thailand more undemocratic.
I always feel that the reds are a bunch of people who cannot publicly and fearlessly express their political views regarding the ruling elite. So there is absolutely no need for them to instil more of this fear in others. It's tragic and ironic that the red shirts, long accused by their opponents of being anti-royalists are now resorting to using this archaic law against its opponents. (...)
Yours Truly,
A journalist who's often accused of being red and in bed with Thaksin.
"An open letter to the red shirts", by Pravit Rojanaphruk, The Nation, January 12, 2011
While it is debatable if the action of one (allegedly a spokesperson, nonetheless) can speak for the whole red shirt movement - which in itself appears to search for a common ground at the moment. But I agree with Pravit - it is a bad idea that can do more harm than good. The majority of red shirt movement want change in Thai politics and society, and I can imagine many of them want exactly the opposite of what one of them has done with his act.
*Honi soit qui mal y pense, just because this station is run by Thaksin's kids!
Dawei and Thailand’s stake in Burma’s industrial mega-project
Originally published at Siam Voices on January 6, 2011 Burma has vanished from the international headlines ever since the hotly debated elections and the release of democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi from house arrest late last year. Around the same time there was coverage about the Thai involvement in the Burmese industrial complex Dawei, located on the west coast. Thailand is one of the few countries that has economic ties with the military dictatorship.
For Thailand it is an great economic opportunity and many big companies have invested - or are thinking about investing - in the project, as the New York Times and Bangkok Post explain:
The project is also crucial for geo-strategic reasons: Construction of a deep-sea port would create a shortcut between Europe and Indochina. Companies in Thailand and the fast-growing economies of Vietnam and Cambodia could save fuel and time by bypassing the long journey through the Strait of Malacca, a detour of several thousand kilometers. (...)
Italian-Thai has been awarded a huge chunk of territory for the project — 250 square kilometers, or about 97 square miles, more than four times the size of Manhattan. (...) Italian-Thai ... has been given exemptions from import duties and a 75-year concession to build and operate the heavy-industrial part of the project, as well as a 40-year concession for light industry, like garment factories.
"An Industrial Project That Could Change Myanmar", New York Times, November 26, 2010
The Burmese government is promoting the development of a huge port and industrial estate development in Dawei (Tavoy), for which SET-listed Italian Thai Development Plc will be a major contractor. The first-phase contract that ITD has signed for the 10-year project is worth an estimated US$8 billion. The entire project could be worth $58 billion or more.
Companies planning to invest in a Dawei industrial estate include PTT Plc, Siam Cement Group and the upstream complex of a Japanese steel company.
"Big shift to Dawei predicted", Bangkok Post, November 14, 2010
It is quite obvious why Thai companies look beyond the kingdom's borders to do their business if one recalls the troubles it has domestically, with one name being synonymous for corporate pollution in Thailand: Map Ta Phut.
For foreign companies, the project also means less environmental oversight. In the case of Thailand, new laws that require more environmental safeguards have slowed the expansion of the industrial complex at Map Ta Phut, the country’s largest petrochemical facility. (...)
By contrast, Italian-Thai officials said that there were no laws in Myanmar covering environmental protection but that they had conducted their own assessment of the likely impact in Dawei. (...) Somchet Thinaphong, who helped devise the master plan for Map Ta Phut, is the managing director of Dawei Development, which is to oversee the project. “This will be exactly 10 times bigger than Map Ta Phut,” Mr. Somchet said.
"An Industrial Project That Could Change Myanmar", New York Times, November 26, 2010
There's no doubt that the Dawei project will completely change the place beyond recognition, the NYT story goes on to say that at least 3,800 local households would be forced to move - the region is estimated to have 19 villages with around 5,000 residents.
On a bilateral level, it can be observed that the Thai government has more or less 'cuddled up' to the Burmese junta in recent times, as hinted during his last visit in October.
The construction deal was signed five days before Burma’s election last month, and it’s noteworthy that Thai politicians have becoming friendlier towards the Burmese ruling junta in recent years. When in opposition, Abhisit’s party was hostile to the military rulers next door – and critical of the then Thai prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, for cosying up to them. Such antipathy has now been forgotten.
"Why Thailand invests in Burma", by Simon Roughneen, Financial Times, December 2, 2010
One has also to recall how much Thailand already relies on Burma in terms of energy:
Thailand already relies heavily on Myanmar for energy; the Dawei project is only a few dozen kilometers south of a pipeline to Thailand built more than a decade ago by the U.S. oil company Chevron and the French oil company Total, and which supplies electricity for greater Bangkok. The sale of gas to Thailand, worth $4 billion last year alone, has been crucial in helping buttress the power of the military leadership in Myanmar.
"An Industrial Project That Could Change Myanmar", New York Times, November 26, 2010
This gold rush on Dawei goes to show that the Western sanctions on the military regime are not really working (as Abhisit himself pointed that out in an interview) and that the Thai companies are promising themselves the industrial el dorado that Map Ta Phut should have been. Maybe an economic boom is a chance for Burma to open up the country, but on the other hand the junta will keep a close eye on the progress and, given its track records, will be tempted to intervene, which ultimately is a high risk for the companies involved.
Videos show Thai MP, activists before arrest in Cambodia
Originally published at Siam Voices on January 3, 2011 Last week, seven Thais were arrested by Cambodian authorities for allegedly crossing the border into Cambodian territory illegally (check out previous coverage by fellow Siam Voices writer Thorn Pitidol and at Bangkok Pundit). Among the detained are Democrat MP Panich Vikitsreth and PAD-affiliated activists Samdin Lertbutr and Veera Somkwamkit. The latter is the leader of the Thai Patriot Network (TPN), known for its activities concerning the border issue, so much so it even got him into conflict with the PAD leaders themselves.
More details emerge about the circumstances of the arrest with the most important question being whether the men where (aware to be) on Cambodian territory or not. Three videos have appeared on YouTube (with no knowledge how the videos have been leaked, since the Cambodians must have seized everything) showing the men walking through the border region. In two of the videos, Panich is seen talking on the phone to someone.
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5YTbiVA16Ss&w=600&h=360]"พนิช บุกรุกเขมรอภิสิทธิ์รู้ดี", video by 2011galet
Translated transcript of Panich's phone call (starting at 1:10 min):
"Hello [name], are you there? Can you hear me clearly? In case we lose the signal here, call Somkiat, the PM's secretary - because we'll/I'll will talk to him personally, anyways - tell Somkiat we've crossed the border into Cambodia, so we can coordinate it, in case something happens. Tell him - we're now on Cambodian territory! But don't let anyone else know about it, only the PM knows!"
The PM should know about this since, he ordered him to investigate the region.
The second video shows a local talking to the men and again we see Panich talking on the phone. Whether it is the same person or even the same phone call as in the video above is not possible to determine.
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l2K9RwUE-zA&w=600&h=360]"พนิช วิกิตวิเศรษฐ์คุยกับชาวเขมร", video by 2011galet
Translated transcript of Panich's phone call (starting at 0:38 min):
"...tell him we've crossed. We'll try to get to point 46 [46th boundary monument], which is on the Thai side, but is inhabited by Cambodians."
A third video shows the men wandering around and discussing about the territory, before being apprehended by Cambodians.
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lAKcdU-RKNY&w=600&h=360]"คลิป พนิช เข้ากัมพูชา", video by gigcode
Translated transcript
Veera (the man holding a video camera, pointing at the concrete pole): "This fence here is Thai ground."
Unseen staff member: "If we cross here, then we're in Cambodia?"
Veera: "This is Thai territory, but they [the Cambodians] have claimed this for themselves. They have claimed it based on the 1:200.000 map. Thais can walk up to this point, if they cross it here, it's [still] Thai, that's an old Thai village over there, but the Cambodians have seized it all."
Panich: "Now it's full of Cambodians?"
Veera: "Yes, full of Cambodians! Let's go, if we go there, we'll get arrested for sure!" (group walks off)
Unseen staff member: "The border police will come...they will follow us."
Panich: "Our soldiers don't dare to come here?"
Veera: "If we get caught, the border police will come and help us out."
All: "Ah, here they come! They come in many. The soldiers are coming..."
Panich: "Are these their [Cambodian] troops?"
Veera: "Police Lieutenant Colonel Sawat, the one who helped me once, he insists that this Thai territory. [...] So, if we get caught, he'll help us" [...]
[Scene with Panich phone calls, the same as in the clips above]
[Scene at 2:15 shows them walking and Veera noting that they are now in Ban Nong Jarn (บ้านหนองจาน) and that they'll probably be arrested soon]
[Scene beginning 2:45 shows the group being stopped by a Cambodian man, possibly a soldier?]
[3:11, another man on a motorcycle arriving]
Cambodian man 1 (in Thai): One month ago there was no problem.
Thai group member: But this month there is a problem?
Cambodian man 1: You haven't told that you'd come...
Thai group member: Told whom?
Cambodian man 2: The police, the Thai border police...!
[The rest is entirely in Cambodian, some bits the author understood included along the lines of "We can talk about it" etc.]
Now, it is difficult to draw conclusions from these clips without the context. The clips do not show where exactly the group has been arrested. Furthermore, we haven't seen much of the locals - the one lady doesn't give much away. And how were the clips leaked? Nevertheless, some questions arise though: Was Prime Minister Abhisit aware of the group going entering Cambodian soil? Where was the Thai border police this time, if Veera claims to be certain that they would help? Was a deliberate attempt by the group to be arrested, since Veera was certain on that point as well? And ultimately, was the group on Cambodian territory or not when they were arrested?
In related news, there has been much action because of this in Bangkok as well. First off there was the admission (we can't talk about a confirmation per se) by Deputy Prime Minister Suthep that the group was on Cambodian soil. Then there was the rest of the TPN unsurprisingly up in arms about the arrest, so much so that they want the UN to help. And in the most recent developments, the TPN announces to protest at the border. As expected, the Thai authorities have declared the area a no-go zone. The TPN has led a similar protest in September 2009 at the border in Srisaket province, which in ended in clashes with police and locals. Also, in the latest absurd turn of events, TPN core-leader Chaiwat Sinsuwong blames defense minister Prawit Wongsuwon to have tipped off Cambodian troops to have the seven men arrested. The cynic in me says that the PAD must be delighted with the arrest of the seven men, since they would otherwise have nothing to protest on January 25 (except for some charter amendments maybe).
General Prayuth's Wish List for 2011
Originally published at Siam Voices on December 29, 2010 It seems that Thailand's army commander-in-chief General Prayuth Chan-ocha is already being more outspoken in public (with a public outburst being his last outing) than his predecessor(s) in such a short time, considering he just took up the post in October.
This week, he outlined four points on his wish list for the new year. Let's go one by one, shall we?
"For the people and army personnel to enjoy the New Year" Well, duh! Nothing much to explain here.
"For the monarchy not to be offended" He's got that point covered as well after the announced his crackdown on all anti-monarchists and he has put this on the top of his priority list during his tenure.
"For peace to return quickly to the southern border provinces" If there's any superficial sign of improvement or at least what the authorities want to signal to us, then the apparent upcoming end of the state of emergency in one district in Pattani might be one - even though it will be replaced by the Internal Security Act (ISA). The same happened in Bangkok last week.
"For sustainable peace on the borders with neighbouring countries." Of course this is a reference to the ongoing dispute over Preah Vihear temple at the Thai-Cambodian border. Prayuth added that "unsettled border disputes should not be raised unnecessarily because doing so would only make people become emotional." Well, let's see if he'll stick to his words when the PAD will protest about this very issue on January 25, 2011 or if he'll let them pass.
But wait, there's more!
Asked about the army's stand on politics, Gen Prayuth said the army must not side with any parties in conflict but must maintain and adhere to the law, regardless of who is the government, to prevent casualties to the people.
The army chief said the people should no longer talk about which colour they belong to, because this would only prolong the conflict between them.
He promised not to lead the army in another coup, because it is against the law. "Nobody wants a coup and the chance of there not being another coup is 100 per cent," Gen Prayuth said.
"Gen Prayuth's New Year wishes", Bangkok Post, December 28, 2010
Firstly, if a flawed opinion poll from earlier this year is anything to go by, then the army shouldn't be influenced by politics at all anyways. Secondly, if Prayuth advises people to go color-blind, then he himself should stick to his own words as well, since he was allegedly promoting and demoting army officers for political reasons.
And finally, about the pledge not to stage coup - well, we'll have to see about that...